Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

[PJFW8]

Slevit1md may be correct about superchargers and dealer services. After more than two years with a plug-in CMax I have come to believe that the future is charging in your garage and perhaps at the destination. Even a dramatically faster and denser supercharging system will never permit comfortable use of a vehicle that has a range of less than a reliable 350 plus miles. That is unless you live in California Or the north east corridor. For North Carolina and South East Coast supercharging will not work well. I would buy an S today regardless of cost but it is just too big. I could live with supercharging but would not like it. Supercharging concept is a stop gap measure, nothing more.

 

[sandpiper]

I do not recall claiming that EM (or Tesla in general) set out to develop an exclusive luxury brand. Although I will finally get my S tomorrow, I've been following along since the beginning and I am fully aware of their intentions. I also realize that even if EM cared nothing about the environment or switching everything to electric, it would just be bad business to only sell premium vehicles that most people can't afford. However, that doesn't change the fact that I'd still like it to stay a more exclusive brand. All I said is that I'd like the 3 to be delayed, and if history is any indication, it will be. They may be a dime a dozen in some places, but in most of the country, they remain pretty rare. I run into people regularly who have never heard of the car and many others who think they're neat but have never seen one. I've got a line of people waiting for a ride in mine when it comes.

At the moment, Tesla has arguably the best service of any automobile maker out there. However, we've already seen things slipping. Things like decreasing what they actually do on the yearly service, getting rid of free pickup and drop off for people who live further from service centers, etc. I don't imagine this is going to turn back in the other direction once this is a mass market car! Luxury car buyers usually get luxury service, but things aren't usually the same when you're primarily dealing with $35000 vehicles. The experience I've had with Tesla so far has far exceeded any other car company I've dealt with, but we'll see how long that lasts when we're not all spending upwards of $100,000 on the cars. And I also don't believe they'll be able to keep up with supercharger needs unless they seriously pick up the pace. For the foreseeable future, they're still trying to cover large parts of the country. But when you have 10x (or many more) the number of vehicles, you're going to need many more superchargers per location; a few per state isn't going to cut it. And when they're full, we're not talking 3 minutes until the car in front of you is full!

So, feel free to disagree with me and I'm well aware that Elon's and my goals are not in sync, but I'd have no issue if the model 3 were pushed back a few years! The model 3 will probably be great for the environment, great for Tesla's bottom line, and great for a large portion of the population. But I don't think it will be great for current owners. Maybe I'm wrong, and I hope I am, but I'm just going to enjoy the next few years.

I think you're wrong. I think Tesla is always going to have a top end model, just like most other dealers do. So if your intent is to spend 120+k on a car it will always be a bit unusual & exclusive.

But more than that, Tesla has no choice but to push the model 3. They have a definite first mover advantage right now but it's only a matter of time before the other manufacturers come out with some good EVs. If the model 3 isn't there to fill the role of higher volume, lower cost, long range EV then somebody else will and Tesla will slowly die. Tesla can command a high margin for their cars right now, but that will absolutely erode as BMW, GM, Mercedes, Porsche, etc... get into the game.

As the volume goes up, I think you'll see more and more SCs being built or expanded. Just look at the SC map in California! They're everywhere. There is no reason that can't be everywhere. And at a certain point high power DC chargers will become more standardized, so we'll probably be able to charge at whatever GM's equivalent of the SC turns out to be. Maybe GM will even get some sense and adopt the Tesla standard.

The model 3 is key for the survival of the company. And I think that's in all of our best interests.

 

[jbcarioca]

...
The model 3 is key for the survival of the company. And I think that's in all of our best interests.

I agree. One thing we have seen in all successful auto manufacturers is line extensions.

Everyone from Ferrari to Rolls Royce has done line extensions. of course they are Fiat and BMW. In the case of Ferrari, Montezemolo resigned rather than increase production. However, McLaren did it too. There never was a question about tesla. From the beginning Jb Elon & co chose to produce the single best product they could, and that meant starting at high end. Looking at BMW (Rolls Royce to Mini), Daimler Benz (sort of Maybach to Smart), VW (Bugatti to UP!) and so on, successful carmakers diversify price ranges. Some do it better than others as the repeated failures of GM, Ford and Chrysler can attest, and the numerous defunct makes from around the world add flavour.

We already have Tesla as the first successful new car manufacturer in the US since Chrysler, assuming we would not call Kaiser a success. Can Tesla survive and thrive going downscale without polluting the brand? That is a good question. Still, after the S they arguably know how to do the big things. Now they have myriad details to improve and evolve for the X and S. We are quite vocal about many of them.

The gigafactory and the III are things nobody has done before. For that matter no other car manufacturer is so vertically integrated as is Tesla. So, questions abound. I, as a Tesla owner and shareholder, think the critics have legitimate points. I think Tesla will pull this transition off because it is less difficult than what they've already done.

More to the point; can Tesla survive the absence of Elon Musk? I am betting yes. All we must do is observe how many people are now making decisions at tesla and how effective they are. It will be a difficult transition when it happens, and Model III will present new challenges.

If I am correct the major challenge will be in the distribution model. In industrial transportation manufacturers a direct sales model is rare. We have Boeing, Airbus and Embraer. All three of those have authorised service centres. Even Canadair has dealers for most of their models. In autos, there is: Tesla.
So, let's be direct; the big challenge of the Model III is distribution/service, not manufacturing and design. We might add the Supercharger debate into that equation too.

So, will the Model III dilute the brand? That is the point of the thread. No! Not a chance. The Model III will end out being as different from Model S and X as the Bentley is to the VW UP!. It may well carry the same brand name, just as the MB A-class shares a brand with the newly revitalised MB Maybach. Is anybody confused about those two? I don't think so.

 

[Krugerrand]

The model 3 is key for the survival of the company.

Disagree. Rather Model 3 is key for the survival of an accelerated worldwide adoption of EVs (at least in our lifetime). Tesla can survive as it is now and with the continuation of Gigafactory/s and Tesla Energy. But without the Model 3 and the pressure that vehicle will exert on all other OEMs, EV adoption slows considerably or even halts.

 

[sandpiper]

Disagree. Rather Model 3 is key for the survival of an accelerated worldwide adoption of EVs (at least in our lifetime). Tesla can survive as it is now and with the continuation of Gigafactory/s and Tesla Energy. But without the Model 3 and the pressure that vehicle will exert on all other OEMs, EV adoption slows considerably or even halts.

I don't think so. It's only a matter of time before MB, BMW and Porsche get some good EVs into the market. At that point, Tesla will struggle to compete. The high capacity battery, long term, will become a commodity. What that happens, the other manufacturers will have a huge cost advantage in terms of the production of the rest of the vehicle and in their ability to draw from other production models for all of the other car bits; everything from suspension components to steering wheels. Much as we all love the Model S, it's pretty basic in some respects. When there are multiple good EVs on the market, people will not be willing to tolerate that and Tesla will lose the market.

They have a limited time window in which to bring up their production volume.

 

[Matias]

Disagree. Rather Model 3 is key for the survival of an accelerated worldwide adoption of EVs (at least in our lifetime). Tesla can survive as it is now and with the continuation of Gigafactory/s and Tesla Energy. But without the Model 3 and the pressure that vehicle will exert on all other OEMs, EV adoption slows considerably or even halts.

I think Gigafactory will sink Tesla, if Model 3 is not a success. Gigafactory will cause big losses, if it has to operate with less than optimal capacity.

 

[lucy]

I do not recall claiming that EM (or Tesla in general) set out to develop an exclusive luxury brand. Although I will finally get my S tomorrow, I've been following along since the beginning and I am fully aware of their intentions. I also realize that even if EM cared nothing about the environment or switching everything to electric, it would just be bad business to only sell premium vehicles that most people can't afford. However, that doesn't change the fact that I'd still like it to stay a more exclusive brand. All I said is that I'd like the 3 to be delayed, and if history is any indication, it will be. They may be a dime a dozen in some places, but in most of the country, they remain pretty rare. I run into people regularly who have never heard of the car and many others who think they're neat but have never seen one. I've got a line of people waiting for a ride in mine when it comes.

At the moment, Tesla has arguably the best service of any automobile maker out there. However, we've already seen things slipping. Things like decreasing what they actually do on the yearly service, getting rid of free pickup and drop off for people who live further from service centers, etc. I don't imagine this is going to turn back in the other direction once this is a mass market car! Luxury car buyers usually get luxury service, but things aren't usually the same when you're primarily dealing with $35000 vehicles. The experience I've had with Tesla so far has far exceeded any other car company I've dealt with, but we'll see how long that lasts when we're not all spending upwards of $100,000 on the cars. And I also don't believe they'll be able to keep up with supercharger needs unless they seriously pick up the pace. For the foreseeable future, they're still trying to cover large parts of the country. But when you have 10x (or many more) the number of vehicles, you're going to need many more superchargers per location; a few per state isn't going to cut it. And when they're full, we're not talking 3 minutes until the car in front of you is full!

So, feel free to disagree with me and I'm well aware that Elon's and my goals are not in sync, but I'd have no issue if the model 3 were pushed back a few years! The model 3 will probably be great for the environment, great for Tesla's bottom line, and great for a large portion of the population. But I don't think it will be great for current owners. Maybe I'm wrong, and I hope I am, but I'm just going to enjoy the next few years.

I'm with you, we won't get to enjoy it for long, so might as well savor it while we can. You be you, haters gonna hate. ;-)

 

[tga]

However, that doesn't change the fact that I'd still like it to stay a more exclusive brand.

You're so right. It will be simply nauseating when the hoi polloi get a hold of our beloved Tesla. What next? Asking to join Bushwood? Impossible!

Sincerely,
Judge Elihu Smails

 

[S'toon]

Yes, we non-rich people don't deserve decent electric cars. Oh! I've been so wrong about this all along!

No wait. Some of the more affluent people on this board clearly have entitlement issues.

 

[TEG]

Years ago, I got one of the first Lexus IS300s. It was their first model to go "downmarket" to try to do larger volume by attracting younger customers.
The dealers quickly ratcheted down the level of freebies they offered to customers bringing in cars for service. I heard dealers commenting that the quality of the trade ins they were getting for people buying the new models was "a joke" to them. People weren't trading in BMW & Mercedes to get the IS300, but rather modified low end Asian cars.

Anyways, my point is that people working at the Tesla stores will run into a whole different crowd of people coming in to see the Model 3. Also, they will get offered different types of cars as expected trade-in vehicles.

 

[ecarfan]

Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

I think Gigafactory will sink Tesla, if Model 3 is not a success. Gigafactory will cause big losses, if it has to operate with less than optimal capacity.

You are neglecting to consider the enormous potential global demand for Tesla Energy battery storage products.
Telsa is not just a car company. It is an energy management and storage company that at the moment happens to make cars. In the future it will be much more than just a car company.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think so. It's only a matter of time before MB, BMW and Porsche get some good EVs into the market.

I don't know how long you can hold your breath, but it's already been three years since the release of the Model S and still nothing even close to the Model S is on the horizon from any of those companies.

At that point, Tesla will struggle to compete.

Choked on my tongue there. At 'that' point best case scenario for the other OEMs is that Tesla will only be selling hundreds of thousands of Model 3's and be talking about when their electric truck and Maximum Plaid Roadster are going to hit the streets. If 'that' point happens after Model 3, truck and Roadster, there will be no catching up to Tesla by those you're holding your breath for.

The high capacity battery, long term, will become a commodity.

Let's hope so.

What that happens, the other manufacturers will have a huge cost advantage in terms of the production of the rest of the vehicle and in their ability to draw from other production models for all of the other car bits; everything from suspension components to steering wheels. Much as we all love the Model S, it's pretty basic in some respects. When there are multiple good EVs on the market, people will not be willing to tolerate that and Tesla will lose the market.

Let's come back to that when the other OEMs are either a) buying those commodity batteries from Tesla, or b) are deciding to build their own Gigafactories. Until then...not holding my breath.

They have a limited time window in which to bring up their production volume.

No, the other OEM's have a limited time window to get into the EV game and catch up to Tesla. Indeed, I'm starting to think it's already too late for them and only brand new entrants into the car industry have a shot of playing along side Tesla.

- - - Updated - - -

I think Gigafactory will sink Tesla, if Model 3 is not a success. Gigafactory will cause big losses, if it has to operate with less than optimal capacity.

1) Model 3 will be stupendously successful.
2) On the off chance Model 3 implodes, Tesla Energy will easily consume GigaFactory capacity.

 

[AnOutsider]

Years ago, I got one of the first Lexus IS300s. It was their first model to go "downmarket" to try to do larger volume by attracting younger customers.
The dealers quickly ratcheted down the level of freebies they offered to customers bringing in cars for service. I heard dealers commenting that the quality of the trade ins they were getting for people buying the new models was "a joke" to them. People weren't trading in BMW & Mercedes to get the IS300, but rather modified low end Asian cars.

Anyways, my point is that people working at the Tesla stores will run into a whole different crowd of people coming in to see the Model 3. Also, they will get offered different types of cars as expected trade-in vehicles.

This is a pretty good point and illustrates tangible effects of going downmarket (exclusivity and egos aside)

 

[Libelo]

I believe this fear of Supercharger overcrowding as many more Teslas hit the road is misplaced. Tesla will continue to build out the Supercharger network, funding the build out with revenue obtained by selling cars, just as has been done for the past two years. It's really very simple. And I have no worries about a $35K Model 3 "devaluing" the brand. I think that is absurd. Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, have all successfully sold cars in that price range while maintaining demand for their much higher priced models.

The profit margin per car will be much less with Model 3, hence less funding available to build out the Supercharger network. There are already queues at the Supercharger locations, so I most definitively fear this potential side-effect of the Model 3. Model S owners seem to charge about 10 per cent at Supercharger locations from what I've read in financial statements from Tesla. Model 3 owners will probably prefer to charge more given limited range and a more frugal mentality.

Completely agree on the last part. I already put Tesla in the same category as Mercedes-Benz and BMW. Portraying Tesla as luxury car brand is ludicrous.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The profit margin per car will be much less with Model 3, hence less funding available to build out the Supercharger network. There are already queues at the Supercharger locations, so I most definitively fear this potential side-effect of the Model 3. Model S owners seem to charge about 10 per cent at Supercharger locations from what I've read in financial statements from Tesla.

I don't agree on the supercharger infrastructure bit. Right now Tesla cites 5% usage of superchargers as a ratio of total mileage. If Tesla charges a fixed fee for supercharger access (as many people expect), this will offset the profit margin contribution. The absolute amount of funding will increase in this scenario. Just some rough math, a $2000 fee for 500k vehicles is $1 billion.

Model 3 owners will probably prefer to charge more given limited range and a more frugal mentality.

This is completely baseless. Elon has said Model 3 will have 200 mile real world range minimum. That is not limited range, esp. given the 60kWh Model S gets 208 EPA miles. Also given the existence of "freeloading" (for lack of a better word) Model S owners, I would not necessarily say that the proportion will be higher for Model 3 (esp. given Elon has recently made the supercharger policy clearer in terms of local usage). Just because you buy an expensive car (the Model 3 won't be exactly cheap either) does not mean you don't like saving money.

 

[Yoda101]

Well to Wheel white paper

Thanks for the link. I remember this discussion - however the Well to Wheel argument by Marc and Martin was even better.
The link on this website does not work any more - do you perhaps have a copy or another link? "http://www.teslamotors.com/display_data/twentyfirstcenturycar.pdf"

"Power Plant Emissions aka “The Long Tailpipe”
(For a more detailed version of this argument, please see the white paper written by Martin and Marc.)"

 

[Model3G]

Any chance that the push for model 3s will start tandem with the Model X production? Not inside with the brains of the operation, but the majority of the public could be choosing the model 3 over the X simply for the affordability. With those potential majority purchasing 3s over the X, a lot of capital could be raised for more X productions. A lot of cost has to go into both, but expectations for 35K is a lot lower than +85K.

 

[Fiver]

Any chance that the push for model 3s will start tandem with the Model X production? Not inside with the brains of the operation, but the majority of the public could be choosing the model 3 over the X simply for the affordability. With those potential majority purchasing 3s over the X, a lot of capital could be raised for more X productions. A lot of cost has to go into both, but expectations for 35K is a lot lower than +85K.

I don't think we will begin to see much action regarding the 3 until the gigafactory starts operation. The two are intrinsically linked. The further along the gigafactory is, the closer we are to being able to produce the batteries at scale and prices needed for the 3.

 

[GregRF]

The link on this website does not work any more - do you perhaps have a copy or another link? "http://www.teslamotors.com/display_data/twentyfirstcenturycar.pdf"

Try this: http://web.stanford.edu/group/greendorm/participate/cee124/TeslaReading.pdf

 

[Yoda101]

Perfect! Thanx