Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

[wayner]

Try this: http://web.stanford.edu/group/greendorm/participate/cee124/TeslaReading.pdf

That doc is about 9 years old and talks about the Roadster with a mileage of 110Wh/km. The mileage on a Model S is about half that as the rated range for a Model S is 200Wh/km. Doesn't that then make the Model S well-wheel efficiency (see table and chart on page 3) pretty much the same as a Prius? Or am I missing something?

 

[igotzzoom]

I think Tesla will expand both upward and downward with its product offerings over time. There will be a new Roadster, there may be a "flagship" above the S and X, and there will probably be a compact below the 3, and possibly a "city" car below that. Not to mention commercial vehicles, potentially. If the Model 3 launch goes well, I think you will see Tesla become a major player in the auto industry, not just in terms of perception, but in market volume.

 

[ratsbew]

Elon Musk confirms Model 3 is still on track for "late 2017 via Twitter.

"...achieving a long range affordable electric vehicle has always been our long-term goal. Due in late 2017!"

Elon Musk on Twitter:

 

[AnOutsider]

Elon Musk confirms Model 3 is still on track for "late 2017 via Twitter.

"...achieving a long range affordable electric vehicle has always been our long-term goal. Due in late 2017!"

Elon Musk on Twitter:

So early 2018 in reality. Still, if it gets shown off in early 2016 as rumored, that'd be 2 years from concept to reality, which would be their shortest yet (S was 3 years, X is also 3 years so far)

 

[ratsbew]

I'm really hoping that Tesla can refrain from too much technology development for Model 3 and stick with "trickle down" tech from Model S and Model X. That should help them keep on timeline a bit better.

 

[ecarfan]

I think Model 3 development will be aided significantly by Tesla's experience with the S and the X and the likelihood that the 3 design will not include any new and ambitious features like the X has (second row seats and Falcon Wings and who knows what else). Tesla now has a solid understanding of the necessary battery technology and drivetrain design as well as the basic vehicle control systems. I think we may be surprised by how rapidly Model 3 development progresses.

 

[Matias]

Elon Musk confirms Model 3 is still on track for "late 2017 via Twitter.

"...achieving a long range affordable electric vehicle has always been our long-term goal. Due in late 2017!"

Elon Musk on Twitter:

Well... Model X was supposed to start production 2013..

So you can easily add 2 years to any timetable.

 

[ratsbew]

I think Model 3 development will be aided significantly by Tesla's experience with the S and the X and the likelihood that the 3 design will not include any new and ambitious features like the X has (second row seats and Falcon Wings and who knows what else). Tesla now has a solid understanding of the necessary battery technology and drivetrain design as well as the basic vehicle control systems. I think we may be surprised by how rapidly Model 3 development progresses.

I wouldn't mind suicide doors, but that shouldn't be too difficult.

 

[tftf]

Elon Musk confirms Model 3 is still on track for "late 2017 via Twitter.

"...achieving a long range affordable electric vehicle has always been our long-term goal. Due in late 2017!"

Elon Musk on Twitter:

Repeating the late 2017 date on Twitter doesn't make it real or realistic. As others noted the X was once promised for late 2013.

The Model 3 looks like a 2018-2019 car and it remains to be seen if they can really keep the promised price for the base version.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Well... Model X was supposed to start production 2013..

So you can easily add 2 years to any timetable.

Repeating the late 2017 date on Twitter doesn't make it real or realistic. As others noted the X was once promised for late 2013.

The Model 3 looks like a 2018-2019 car and it remains to be seen if they can really keep the promised price for the base version.

Model X was never part of the original "Secret Plan", which was Roaster -> Model S -> Model 3 (reference: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me) Model X seems to be a bit of a side project where the development team took their time getting every little detail to their satisfaction. With Model S selling so well, there was no incentive to hurry.

Model 3 is a different story, because it is the entire point of the "Secret Plan", which is to bring EVs to mass market. Because this product is the overriding goal, and because of competition, I believe that there is much more incentive for Tesla to make sure that Model 3 ships on time.

All the technological pieces are in place. The challenge will be scaling up from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of units per year. I think they will be able to delivery by late 2017. The real question is: when will they be producing at 300k/year or greater? This is going to require a Supply Chain genius. Tesla needs a "Tim Cook" if they don't already have one.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm really hoping that Tesla can refrain from too much technology development for Model 3 and stick with "trickle down" tech from Model S and Model X. That should help them keep on timeline a bit better.

Making technology cheaper is development as well. But, not putting any new features in should help. After all, they'll want some way to keep selling the Model S and Model X.

 

[TEG]

Model X was never part of the original "Secret Plan", which was Roaster -> Model S -> Model 3 (reference: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me) Model X seems to be a bit of a side project where the development team took their time getting every little detail to their satisfaction. With Model S selling so well, there was no incentive to hurry...

I think Model X could be part of the move to sell more in China.
Minivan/SUV type vehicles are apparently more desirable than sedans there.
Chinese Warm Up to Minivans - WSJ
But with the economy in China getting battered at the moment, I wonder if that will hurt their prospect for X sales in China.
Tesla to Sell Model X SUVs in China in First Half of 2016 - Bloomberg Business

 

[MassModel3]

Model X was never part of the original "Secret Plan", which was Roaster -> Model S -> Model 3 (reference: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me) Model X seems to be a bit of a side project where the development team took their time getting every little detail to their satisfaction. With Model S selling so well, there was no incentive to hurry.

Model 3 is a different story, because it is the entire point of the "Secret Plan", which is to bring EVs to mass market. Because this product is the overriding goal, and because of competition, I believe that there is much more incentive for Tesla to make sure that Model 3 ships on time.

All the technological pieces are in place. The challenge will be scaling up from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of units per year. I think they will be able to delivery by late 2017. The real question is: when will they be producing at 300k/year or greater? This is going to require a Supply Chain genius. Tesla needs a "Tim Cook" if they don't already have one.

^^^ This! ^^^

There will be no (or very few) new technologies in the 3, only the adapting of preexisting technologies. Estimating the release of the 3 based on past history of the S and the X is an exercise in faulty reasoning.

 

[Krugerrand]

Repeating the late 2017 date on Twitter doesn't make it real or realistic.

Repeating the late 2017 on Twitter doesn't make it untrue or unrealistic.

 

[Electroman]

One thing Elon is spot on, in his tweet is the word 'late'

 

[tftf]

Repeating the late 2017 on Twitter doesn't make it untrue or unrealistic.

There's a track record between Twitter, other news announcements / press releases and actual shipping dates that doesn't speak for Tesla.

There's an overlap in Model X and Model 3 resources (engineers etc.). The X delays pushed back the 3 even if it's described as a a "side project". The Model 3 was once supposed to ship in 2014 (then 2015), then 2017 (some hoped for early 2017), now the latest promised date is late 2017.

Maybe even 2018 is optimistic at this point given Tesla's past slipping deadlines.

I don't think this car will be on sale before 2018-2019.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think Model X could be part of the move to sell more in China.
Minivan/SUV type vehicles are apparently more desirable than sedans there.
Chinese Warm Up to Minivans - WSJ
But with the economy in China getting battered at the moment, I wonder if that will hurt their prospect for X sales in China.
Tesla to Sell Model X SUVs in China in First Half of 2016 - Bloomberg Business

Even if the Chinese economic situation causes Tesla sales to fall there, I have full confidence that Tesla would be able to sell every single Model X they can build in the United States. There are many people who will not buy something that isn't an SUV, either because of space requirements or because they want the secure feeling high seating position. This is a huge untapped market.

What would concern me is if the China situation spins out of control and damages economies worldwide. That could impact the ability of buyers in the U.S. to actually purchase a Model X if they want one.

Repeating the late 2017 on Twitter doesn't make it untrue or unrealistic.

There's a track record between Twitter, other news announcements / press releases and actual shipping dates that doesn't speak for Tesla.

There's an overlap in Model X and Model 3 resources (engineers etc.). The X delays pushed back the 3 even if it's described as a a "side project". The Model 3 was once supposed to ship in 2014 (then 2015), then 2017 (some hoped for early 2017), now the latest promised date is late 2017.

Maybe even 2018 is optimistic at this point given Tesla's past slipping deadlines.

I don't think this car will be on sale before 2018-2019.

Well, one of you will be correct. I don't think there's any certainty either way.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well, one of you will be correct. I don't think there's any certainty either way.

I've stated before why the Model 3 will be on time, give or take a small window. Tesla has a partnership with Panasonic (and whomever else is/will be involved in the Gigafactory) and the Model 3 is directly connected to that partnership. Stationary storage appears as if it could relieve some of that product partnership pressure.

 

[wdolson]

If the Model X was never part of the plan, I can see where they thought the Model X would be a cheap way to expand on the Model S platform. The project became a lot more complex than they thought it was going to be and took a lot longer than they thought. I think not too long after starting work on the Model X, the need for the Gigafactory was identified and they started on the supercharger network not long after starting work on the Model X too (they were working on the Model X at least a year before the introduction, probably longer). All the projects spun up making the whole plan larger drawing resources away from the car development projects.

Unfortunately the Model 3 might be late. However, it may not be as late as the Model X is going to be. Along the line they have been learning a lot about building cars. Those lessons will be applied to the Model 3 helping avoid repeating some mistakes. Putting the Model X into production is also a learning experience maintaining production of multiple cars at the same time.

 

[Model 3]

So early 2018 in reality. Still, if it gets shown off in early 2016 as rumored, that'd be 2 years from concept to reality, which would be their shortest yet (S was 3 years, X is also 3 years so far)

First, the early (march) 2016 is not a rumour, it is the confirmed Tesla plan. And I think TM3 will be much more developed by that time then any of the other cars was when they was first shown. Together with Teslas experience with the S and the X I don't think 2 years from prototype/alfa (remember: Tesla do not show concepts) to delivery is unthinkable.

Yes, Tesla has a "track record" for delays, but why does some people have to put "TM3 will not be ready for 2017!!!!" on repeat? Why are they talking about 2019/2020? TMS - Teslas first car designed form the bottom was "only" one year late if I remember correct?