Model 3 Questions we would like asked at Quarterly Earnings Release

[physicsfita]

In the spirit of the similar thread for the Model X, and as a person very interested in getting a Model 3, I have a couple of questions that I would love to have an analyst ask of Elon Musk at the 02/11 earnings call:

1. At an event at NAIAS, you indicated that a design direction had yet to be chosen for the Model 3. In light of this, is it still realistic that deliveries will begin in 2017, and if not, what is your revised timeline for the Model 3?

2. Will any change of timeline for the Model 3 affect the rate at which the Gigafactory is being built? If not, have you identified an alternate use for the batteries?

I am sure there are many other questions that should be asked, and I'd be interested in hearing your ideas.

 

[wart]

Will an average middle-class person be able to afford to keep a Model 3 on the road after the warranty expires? At what point do you expect to start supporting 3rd party repair shops?

 

[Model 3]

1. At an event at NAIAS, you indicated that a design direction had yet to be chosen for the Model 3. In light of this, is it still realistic that deliveries will begin in 2017, and if not, what is your revised timeline for the Model 3?

+1 Good question. And he also mention that the Model 3 is 3 years out, witch would mean early 2018. (Or very late 2017). He had said 2 and a half year earlier.

2. Will any change of timeline for the Model 3 affect the rate at which the Gigafactory is being built? If not, have you identified an alternate use for the batteries?

It does seem so. I was always in the execration that the first batteries from the GF wold go to Model 3, but now they are talking about that Model S/X will get the first batteries. That leads me to think that the first GF module to be build is the battery pack model, and that the GF starts with the same old cells they get from Panasonic today, just transported to Sparks, not Fremont. This battery cells will be more or less exactly the same as Model S uses today (and may also be for the Model X) - 18650, just maybe a little more developed then the originals The next GF-module will be for the cell production facilities. The cells they will be producing the next gen battery cells, and then put them in battery packs for all three models.

After that they may build the parts for all the other making parts to Panasonic, storage areas/logistic and expend on the cell production parts and the battery production part.

And then the conclusion will be that the will not see the full price reduction before most - if not all - of the GF-modules is ready. And all of this tells me that they have a few choices to be made:
- Delay the Model 3 until the GF is ready enough to produce cells and batteries at a signify lower price, or start to sell Model 3 with a low loss until GF is able to make the required price reduction.

 

[igotzzoom]

I'd just like to know when we might see a styling concept.

 

[tga]

Well can I put down a deposit to lock a reservation number? Will there be Signature and non-sig reservations (ie, can I give more money for an earlier slot)? How much?

If deposits are taken prior to a model or feature list, will it be refundable? Or at least transferable to an S/X?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

If deposits are taken prior to a model or feature list, will it be refundable? Or at least transferable to an S/X?

It'd be refundable for sure, going by what has been done with the S and the X. Note that today's X reservations are all refundable. Not until specs and options are out and a configuration finalized by the reservation holder does the deposit get locked down.

Going by past quarterly earnings calls, my guess is that none of the questions posed on this thread will get any definitive answers, even if asked by analysts. Tesla and Elon have their own (constantly shifting, as needed) timetable and they'd announce something only when they are ready to. The sliding "in about 3 years" window will continue for the Model 3.

 

[ryanjm]

I don't expect something this specific to get answered, but what the heck if someone on the call cares to ask it:

-Will AWD be offered from the very first Model 3, or will it roll out after the platform matures a bit, as with Model S?

And an even less likelier question to get answered, but one I'm quite curious of:

-Is it your goal to have the performance version of Model 3 outperform the performance Model S from 0-60mph?

 

[TEG]

Will AWD be offered from the very first Model 3, or will it roll out after the platform matures a bit, as with Model S?

I intend to get a Model 3 as soon as they are available, and having AWD available would be very attractive.
But, I am not holding my breath. I think they might do RWD first, and it wouldn't be enough to make me wait for AWD.

Is it your goal to have the performance version of Model 3 outperform the performance Model S from 0-60mph?

I ponder this question in my head sometimes and really don't know what they will do.
I assume that the price reductions needed for Model 3 may limit the performance potential.
I assume that the smaller battery pack could as well, unless they went with more power (vs energy) cells, but max range is probably more important to sales than a few 10ths quicker.
Before we had P85D, I was thinking that maybe they could target something close to P85 performance, but was thinking only 0-60 in 5s would be more expected, but now that we have P85D 0-60 in 3.1, I don't know what to expect at all. I never expected to see a Model S that could do 0-60 in 3.1s (it is just Insane I tell you.) So, I think Tesla is charting their own territory when it comes to performance, and I really don't know what to expect from them anymore.
(With that said, I would love to have an AWD Model 3 with P85D performance!)

 

[igotzzoom]

I'm sure there will be high-performance versions of the Model 3, but I'm expecting the entry-level model will be about 220 hp. Any 0-60 time below 7 flat I think would be acceptably quick for the base model, but hoping there will be higher-performance versions capable of about 5-flat or quicker.

 

[Model 3]

Any 0-60 time below 7 flat I think would be acceptably quick for the base model, but hoping there will be higher-performance versions capable of about 5-flat or quicker.

I think we have the low number. One of the reasons Elon gave for not building the MS 40 was that it did not perform well enough. So I don't think any Tesla will have any appreciable slower 0-60 times then the MS 60.

 

[TEG]

It would be nice if Sig models / first orders had the full performance version, but Tesla's previous cars didn't add the performance variant until later, so I assume it could happen the same way with the 3.

 

[jvonbokel]

I ponder this question in my head sometimes and really don't know what they will do.
I assume that the price reductions needed for Model 3 may limit the performance potential.
I assume that the smaller battery pack could as well, unless they went with more power (vs energy) cells, but max range is probably more important to sales than a few 10ths quicker.
Before we had P85D, I was thinking that maybe they could target something close to P85 performance, but was thinking only 0-60 in 5s would be more expected, but now that we have P85D 0-60 in 3.1, I don't know what to expect at all. I never expected to see a Model S that could do 0-60 in 3.1s (it is just Insane I tell you.) So, I think Tesla is charting their own territory when it comes to performance, and I really don't know what to expect from them anymore.
(With that said, I would love to have an AWD Model 3 with P85D performance!)

You're not the only one who's pondered this. It's been discussed around here before. Certainly price reductions will limit performance of the base model, but there will undoubtedly be different battery and motor combinations available, even if not from the start. However, the S did launch with three trims: S60, S85, and P85. Since then, they've adjusted a few times and wound up with the current 4: S60, S85, 85D, and P85D. It seems reasonable they'll follow a similar approach with the 3, though the experience with S/X may lead them to skip ahead a bit and not have to tinker as much after initial release.

The base model will get 200mi range from 45-50kWh of battery, but there will surely be at least one other battery option (presumably 250-300mi*). I also expect at least two motor options, leading to a minimum of 3 overall trim levels, similar to the S at launch.

*Note, I anticipate the S and/or X will remain the range leader, so if there's a 300mi option for the 3, around the same time the base S will increase above the current 208, and there will be a ~400mi option.

 

[googlepeakoil]

I think we have the low number. One of the reasons Elon gave for not building the MS 40 was that it did not perform well enough. So I don't think any Tesla will have any appreciable slower 0-60 times then the MS 60.

Also - the smaller the battery pack the more times you have to cycle the battery. So the greater chance of complaints about loss of range / warranty. Was it around the time people were complaining about loss of bars in their Leaf?
Also the car turned out to be so big and heavy that the range - charged to 80% just took the car too close to the lower end of the market (Leaf's circa max 110mile range)... I'd imagine lots of quotes from ill-informed media people saying a Tesla car has a range of 150miles - quoting the worst option, not the best.

 

[jvonbokel]

Also - the smaller the battery pack the more times you have to cycle the battery. So the greater chance of complaints about loss of range / warranty. Was it around the time people were complaining about loss of bars in their Leaf?
Also the car turned out to be so big and heavy that the range - charged to 80% just took the car too close to the lower end of the market (Leaf's circa max 110mile range)... I'd imagine lots of quotes from ill-informed media people saying a Tesla car has a range of 150miles - quoting the worst option, not the best.

Elon has consistently stated a 200mi range for the Model 3. The battery will be smaller due to the weight savings of a smaller car overall, but the cycling will be similar to an S60.

 

[tdelta1000]

I'd just like to know when we might see a styling concept.

I too would to know this.