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Model 3 release and testing

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Yeomen, Mar 20, 2017.

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Are you comfortable with the Model 3 being shipped without Beta testing as is being discussed

  1. Yes

  2. No

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  1. Swampgator

    Swampgator Member

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    Bladerskb,

    Maybe you should go put your short arguments up over at Seeking Alpha.
    "No track record"?? Have you been hiding under a rock the past 5 years?
    Tesla released it's first in house developed car and wins Car of the Year, and is the highest ranked car on consumer reports....ever. The Model S is the top selling luxury sedan...period. Check Mercedes Benz and see if they have noticed. Elon has single handedly advanced the EV movement to the point where almost ALL major automakers are developing, and releasing EVs.
    His Space X company launches, lands, and reuses rockets, and has major contracts with DOD and private industry.
    You sit around an complain and hope your short position in Tesla will buy you another Vette. Good luck with that,
     
    • Like x 5
  2. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    Seriously, I wouldn't assume anything.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. Sonny Daze

    Sonny Daze Member

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    Tweeting is one thing, statements to investors is another.
     
  4. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    Agree, so I haven't voted

    Why would you say this when Elon reported last week the first group of cars "release candidates" built almost entirely built with production tooling on the new assembly line will be out for testing in a week or two?
    What would you call the testing those cars will be going thru if not beta testing?
    Tesla Model 3 ‘release candidates’ are currently being built – Musk notes ‘almost entirely built with production tooling’
     
    • Like x 3
  5. boiler81

    boiler81 Member

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    Since Tesla hasn't had anything other than the two Alpha prototypes until now, then they haven't done any beta testing. Other car companies have beta's out doing cold, hot, durability, and other testing 12+ months prior to production start, and there are often "spy shots" proving this.
    If Tesla finds any serious problems with the car in the next few months that can't be fixed with a software patch, we're all in trouble.:(
     
  6. JoaoD

    JoaoD Tech Enthusiast

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    Yeah, I did not mean they were using the final assembly lines or not building anything manually. But they are using production tooling in the sense that the production lines that are being used now will be changed, if necessary, and used in the future to produce the final Model 3. Instead of what a typical beta car would be, mostly hand built.
    What I believe they are doing now is testing the "machine that builds the machine". And they will test both the machines and the car in parallel.

    Tesla has a massive Gigafactory where they can test their cars while not being seen by anyone else, while other manufacturers can't properly run their cars in a closed space...
     
  7. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    In other news, a Model 3 has just been spotted in the eastern part of Germany:

    model3_germany.png

    ;)
     
    • Funny x 2
    • Like x 1
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn M3 Silver, M3 Midnight Silver

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    The poll reminds me of the lawyer's question:
    "Have you quit beating your wife? YES or NO?"
     
    • Funny x 6
    • Like x 1
  9. N5329K

    N5329K Active Member

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    Here's why.
    There's an old saying in aviation: regulations are written in blood. You have a very complex machine designed to carry people to a height from which they cannot safely fall. While these machines are exhaustively tested in almost every which way (and their safety record reflects this), with all the "known unknowns" examined with a jeweler's loupe, there are also "unknown unknowns" that crop up only after the flying machine enters service. Take the world's first commercial jet airliner, the de Havilland Comet. Built by a hugely experienced company with the very best aeronautical engineers available and exhaustively "Beta tested", the Comet carried passengers higher and faster than any airliner of its day. It was a brand new product meant to change the world.
    One year after entering service, they began to fall out of the sky.
    It turned out that repeated cabin pressurization allowed stress to become focused on the sharp-edged corners of its big, square passenger ports. The stress begat cracks, the cracks propagated through the skin, the Comet shattered like a popped balloon and fell to the ground in metal confetti. De Havilland had thoroughly test flown the airplane, watched for failures, fixed what broke, tested again, fixed what broke, retested, on and on, until they were satisfied they had a safe and durable product.
    They had addressed all the known unknowns. And missed an unknown unknown. A mandate for many thousands of pressurization cycles and providing fuselage tear joints (to stop the propagation of cracks) entered the regs.
    Tesla has great faith in its ability to design and build the machines that build the machines. They even invoke superhuman technology when they refer to factories as "alien dreadnoughts." And I am sure they've addressed most, or even all, the known unknowns quite well.
    But "faith", by definition, is belief in something unproven, and they've run out of time to prove things the old fashioned way (drive, fix what breaks, drive some more, fix what breaks). There's more than a whiff of hubris about whether such an approach is even needed these days. That's why I said releasing the Model 3 into the controlled environment of company employees is really an intermediate test period. The car will be driven, thousands of miles racked up. Surely, some unknown unknowns will show up, get addressed, changes made in the design, rinse and repeat, and hope (which is, as they say, not a plan) that by the first non-employee delivery they will have a safe, reliable product that will not come flooding back to service centers in a tidal wave.
    I believe (unproven, remember) that most of the unknown unknowns will get ironed out by the time the car is released into the wild. But not all of them.
    And that's all I have to say about that.

    Robin
     
    • Like x 1
  10. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Almost a year ago... so be on the lookout over there for a Release Candidate car any day now!
     
  11. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    We still have component recalls and replacements from every other car company I've bought from too despite the existing testing protocols. In one case 16 years after showroom delivery I got a heap of new suspension components for free from Honda. The unknown unknowns keep coming...
     
  12. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Which is another way of saying "they ran out of money".
     
    • Disagree x 1
  13. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

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    I'm glad we have all the highly qualified and experienced automotive engineers in this forum that are privy to all the testing that has or hasn't been done. /s
     
    • Funny x 4
  14. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    Honestly, I don't think it's money. There are a few here on TMC that believe you can throw money at anything, and accelerate the process. With manufacturing, this simply isn't true, especially with a complex supply chain in tow. It takes time, regardless of money. Years of discrete, supply chain dependent manufacturing experience at an exec level tells me this.

    I've always fully believed that December 31, 2017 will come and go, and they'll only have a few, hand built models to show. Machines that build the machines that spit out perfect Model 3s at the other end. Maybe in 5 years. Maybe not. My guess is the initial production line is going to look an awful lot like the S and X.

    It is entertaining to watch the hopeful speculation that ensues, especially when EM leans way out over his skis on Twitter. It's almost cult-like...
     
  15. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    I worked for GM in manufacturing. How about you?
     
    • Informative x 1
  16. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    I wasn't primarily referring to money to spend on development, but rather the negative cash flow of the entire business. There is only so many times Tesla can raise equity to cover that cash flow pre model 3.

    Post model 3 he can raise a lot more equity.

    Of course production will look like the S/X. Tesla hires people from the auto industry and buys production equipment from the same companies everyone uses. What Tesla needs to do to be successful is become a competent auto manufacturer. That milestone is a work in progress.
     
    • Like x 2
  17. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

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    Well since they've already reported that they are building cars off of the production tooling and are looking at them as release candidates the first part of your guess is probably wrong. As for it taking them 5 years to produce a quality car in volume... yea, that's probably wrong too.
     
  18. Big-T

    Big-T Member

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    Plot twist...that WAS the release candidate :)
     
  19. 182RG

    182RG Free The Service Manuals From Tyranny

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    When we see what "Production Tooling" means, we'll know. 'Production Tooling"....sounds all cool, and fast, and stuff, doesn't it?! They could literally say anything......
     
  20. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    #40 S'toon, Mar 21, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
    • Like x 2

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