Model 3 Reservation Guess Lottery

[NicoV]

I like the way you think! I too am very optimistic about the Model 3.

24 hrs: 50k
week: 100k
month: 200k
year: 500k

I'm going to explain my reasoning instead of just posting numbers.
By end of march there will be between 100k-150k Model S or X owners. They know there is no risk in giving Tesla a couple of thousand dollar/euro for a registration. This is even more true for people outside the USA: there will be (tens?) of thousands of model E produced before the the first one is delivered outside the USA, so there isn't even a risk of getting a car with child diseases. A fair amount of Tesla owners will want an extra car within 3 years, they know they need to register on day 1 to get their car within 3 years (My Model S hasn't been delivered yet, but I will reserve a Model 3 on day one because I have to replace my 16 year old Toyota Corolla in a couple of years). Add to this the people who want a Tesla but can't justify the price of an X or S, they will also register on day 1. Considering these 2 groups of buyers, 50k will probably be conservative.
Fast forward 1 week. By then it's in the news how many preordered model E's there are. Anyone hesitating will place their rgistration.
Witihin a month, lease companies will register cars by the hundreds or the thousands out of fear of not getting anything to lease within 2 years of release. (In my country, lease companies are already predicting that Model 3 will be a big hit with company lease cars because of the fiscal situation of EV cars).
After a month, most people registring will be people that still have some doubts or people that just heard about Tesla).

 

[Breezy]

I don't see there being more than 100,000 Model 3 reservations by the time deliveries start.

There are going to be a lot of plug-in models coming in the next few years that people will be able to drive off the lot: no waiting. The motivation for people to reserve is so they get their car early. Once you have a high reservation number, that motivation diminishes. The deposit is refundable but it's not risk free and many potential Model 3 buyers aren't as risk tolerant.

 

[Model 3]

24 hrs: 50k
week: 100k
month: 200k
year: 500k

I'm going to explain my reasoning instead of just posting numbers.
By end of march there will be between 100k-150k Model S or X owners. They know there is no risk in giving Tesla a couple of thousand dollar/euro for a registration. This is even more true for people outside the USA: there will be (tens?) of thousands of model E produced before the the first one is delivered outside the USA, so there isn't even a risk of getting a car with child diseases. A fair amount of Tesla owners will want an extra car within 3 years, they know they need to register on day 1 to get their car within 3 years (My Model S hasn't been delivered yet, but I will reserve a Model 3 on day one because I have to replace my 16 year old Toyota Corolla in a couple of years). Add to this the people who want a Tesla but can't justify the price of an X or S, they will also register on day 1. Considering these 2 groups of buyers, 50k will probably be conservative.
Fast forward 1 week. By then it's in the news how many preordered model E's there are. Anyone hesitating will place their rgistration.
Witihin a month, lease companies will register cars by the hundreds or the thousands out of fear of not getting anything to lease within 2 years of release. (In my country, lease companies are already predicting that Model 3 will be a big hit with company lease cars because of the fiscal situation of EV cars).
After a month, most people registring will be people that still have some doubts or people that just heard about Tesla).

I agree on a lot of your reasoning. But still see your numbers as a bit optimistic....

24 hrs: 5k
Week: 10k
Month: 25k
Year: 75k
At the "lunch event" after one and a half year (in late Q3 2017): 115k
... and then the flood of reservations will start.

- - - Updated - - -

The motivation for people to reserve is so they get their car early.

That depends on the definition of "early"

If you do want this car, and you see that it's a reservation que for over a year of production - you may reserve just to be sure you get the car before 2020 (or whatever time you think you need to have the car). We will see a lot of "To get the car at about/before/after X-date, when will I need to put in my reservation?".

 

[Iz]

If the M3 can dominate its segment like its big bro dominated... Tesla is going to have a hard time keeping up with demand.

Nice graphic. First quarter sales for Model 3 will be quite interesting.

 

[NicoV]

I agree on a lot of your reasoning. But still see your numbers as a bit optimistic....

24 hrs: 5k
Week: 10k
Month: 25k
Year: 75k

We'll see if I'm too optimistic. But given that there were about 30k preorders for Model X, I think 75k after a year would be a serious disappointement.

 

[Model 3]

We'll see if I'm too optimistic. But given that there were about 30k preorders for Model X, I think 75k after a year would be a serious disappointement.

30k after how many years? How many was it after one year? As you saw I did not expect the reservations to stop after one year, just the opposite.

And yes, ramp up of the TM3 production will be stepper then with the TMS/X, but with - as I guessed - over 100k reservations at the "lunch event" it will still be (much) more then the first year of production "pre sold". Remember that the ramp up of TM3 can not go (much) faster then the ramp up of GF-I.

 

[ImEric]

I'm going to assume that the reservation fee is between $1000.00 and $1500.00 for these estimates.

17,000 (Night of the reveal (if reservations open up right away)).
8,000 (First 24 hours (if not the same day as the launch)).
23,000 (first week)
48,000 (first month)
117,000 (12 months)
207,000 (launch event)
193,000 (before deliveries begin)

 

[ratsbew]

With the recently announced $1,000 reservation amount (and global release at once) I'm going to update my numbers:

March 31st: 20,000
April 1st: 250,000
Week: 400,000
Month: 1,000,000
Year: 1,500,000

 

[Gerasimental]

Week: 65,000
Month: 120,000
Year: 275,000

Model 3 is going to be huge. There are tons of people who want the "cheap Tesla". I also think that a lot of wealthy Model S owners will be reserving 1-3 Model 3s for their children.

Told my mother it was available for reservation from March 31st for a deposit of $1000 and asked jokingly 'how many do we get?' - her reply: 'one each?' (family of 4)

 

[jbcarioca]

24 hrs: 50k
week: 100k
month: 200k
year: 500k

I'm going to explain my reasoning instead of just posting numbers.
By end of march there will be between 100k-150k Model S or X owners. They know there is no risk in giving Tesla a couple of thousand dollar/euro for a registration... 50k will probably be conservative.

I agree with your logic. Further I think the first 24 hour total will be limited by Tesla store capacity to process orders and nothing else. Between now and then the current owners, current other EV drivers, current hybrid owners all will realize that a thousand Euro/US$ is refundable anyway and has pretty low risk so many people will rush to order. I also think the progression during the first year will be driven by the rapid publicity that will accrue to the early orderers so it could easily exceed the first year planned production, maybe even more than 500,000. remember that the price to play is really not very high.

 

[dauger]

Day: 1000
Week: 50k (including 10k of Tesla's employees)
Month: 100k
Year: 300k
Two Years: 500k

I will be among those in the first week, reserving a 3 for my wife.

I wonder if "scalpers" will reserve several in the first couple hundred, only to offer that reservation for double months later, say on eBay. Got you thinking about it, right?

 

[BornToFly]

I bet every Model S owner knows at least 5 people that would love a Tesla, but can't afford a Model S. Many Model S owners probably intend on getting a Model 3 for a family member. With 100,000 Model S owners, I predict at least :

week 100,000
Month, 200,000
Year 500,000

 

[chargeshare]

I wonder if "scalpers" will reserve several in the first couple hundred, only to offer that reservation for double months later, say on eBay. Got you thinking about it, right?

I doubt they are transferable?

 

[doubeld]

So apparently we can't edit our posts therefore I guess it would be fair to allow people to repost if they want to update their responses. Since there was a slight change to the reveal date offering in-store reservations supposedly before the actual physical optical revelation, the 1-week amount will be slightly more than one week, but I'll keep the date & time for the time frames the same.

The 1-week guesses will be as of April 7 @ Midnight PST.
The 1-month estimate will be as of April 30 @ Midnight PST.
The 1-year guesses will be as of March 31, 2017 @ Midnight PST.

 

[ZAKEEUS]

30k
50k
140k

 

[butchmank9]

I have been a tesla follower for many years and I have test drove one. So my guess is going to be on the high side.

Week: 200,000
Month: 500,000
Year: 1,000,000

Tess-Love1

 

[1208]

Week: 14,000
Month: 60,000
Year: 840,000

 

[DavidM]

Week: 55,000
Month: 80,000 (TSLA $275)
Year: 180,000
Assuming:
Tesla doesn't stop taking reservations.
Tesla doesn't curtail fleet reservations (which could be 20% of total)

 

[hcsharp]

Updating (if that's allowed) based on call volume to stores asking about reservation procedures. I also want my weekly guess to be higher than @ratsbew.:wink:

week: 434,000
month: 597,000
year: 1,501,995

I'm currently the highest guess for weekly. ratsbew is a close second. The rest of you don't understand how big this will be.

 

[doubeld]

I'm updating too. With a lot of employees getting first in line and previous owners getting the ability to jump in front of everyone else, I think the uptake will be much bigger.
I sure hope we get reservation numbers listed... doesn't look like any of the employee Model 3 reservations have numbers attached yet.

Week: 35,140
Month: 58,275
Year: 213,980