Model 3 Reservation predicted date of delivery

[Chopr147]

Ok , for shts & giggles I checked the Model 3 Counter and put my info in for possible delivery window.
I figured I was in the 260,000 area on the list for my date/time of reservation (Tesla order count 250k morning of 4/2) but this is what I got back:

The date and time you provided for your email confirmation was: 04/02/2016 09:58AM (America/New_York).

Based on the above information, your estimated position in line is 364,399 and shipping date is October 2018.

Now i'm concerned. I was hoping for early Spring 2018 thinking 260,000 minus maybe half due to foreign orders.
Also puts me way out of the tax credit ballpark. It seems I have fallen back in line some 100,000 orders! WTF?
I would like to know but won't bother calling because it is in flux now anyway. Can't imagine current Tesla owners are pushing me back that far. They barely even have that many cars on the road

 

[ummgood]

That thing is way off! Believe me. I was in line on 3/31 and had my reservation in at 11am and it thinks I am like number 250k by my reservation email. You can't go by the reservation email you need to go by the time/date that the reservation was made...

I know that isn't true because several hours later when they showed off the car the count was 135k or something.

 

[gregincal]

Your own estimate is at least as good (and probably better) than this website.

 

[FirstSea]

I pre-ordered mine at Century City CA on 3/31 around 10:17am, I was number ~70. Therefore I should be among the first 50k, even if I'm not just meeting Elon made it worth it.

 

[Tiberius]

Ok , for shts & giggles I checked the Model 3 Counter and put my info in for possible delivery window.
I figured I was in the 260,000 area on the list for my date/time of reservation (Tesla order count 250k morning of 4/2) but this is what I got back:

The date and time you provided for your email confirmation was: 04/02/2016 09:58AM (America/New_York).

Based on the above information, your estimated position in line is 364,399 and shipping date is October 2018.

Now i'm concerned. I was hoping for early Spring 2018 thinking 260,000 minus maybe half due to foreign orders.
Also puts me way out of the tax credit ballpark. It seems I have fallen back in line some 100,000 orders! WTF?
I would like to know but won't bother calling because it is in flux now anyway. Can't imagine current Tesla owners are pushing me back that far. They barely even have that many cars on the road

As it has been said in the other threads, not only is it inaccurate but the administrators of that site are selling your contact info to third parties.

Probably a good idea to stop drawing attention to it to save the other gullibles from falling for it too lol.

 

[zenmaster]

No more posts about that website pls

 

[Chopr147]

Obviously did not look closely on the counter. I believed it was straight from Tesla. Sometimes I click too fast while surfing

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I was in line and placed my order at ~10:31am ET.

The first number Elon gave at the unveiling was 115,000....and I believe that also included the first hour of online reservations....so I KNOW I'm somewhere in the first.....100-105K people.

I'm not going to give that site my personal info, but I bet it will spit out something ridiculous like 200K+

 

[Sharkbait]

The final design isn't even complete. How can anyone possibly predict a date when their car will be delivered? Might be better to start guessing after the first person in line receives his/her car, calculate daily production, then more accurately determine your month of delivery (plus or minus and delays caused by suppliers).

 

[electracity]

What percent of reservation holders will decline to configure?
I expect many people that took two reservations will use only one. Not sure what the percentage will look like on the rest.

I think more than a 70% close rate would be extraordinary.

 

[Sharkbait]

I think more than a 70% close rate would be extraordinary.

I agree. I think a considerable number of folks that reserved will be dropping their reservation as time wears on, perhaps more if other manufacturing and production issues mount. I just hope QC isn't sacrificed or dropped for product delivery.