Date/TimeTally2016-05-15373,000 (2)2016-04-13392,000 (1)2016-04-07 10:21325,0002016-04-02 23:59276,0002016-04-02 07:00253,0002016-04-01 19:26232,000 2016-04-01 10:23198,000 2016-04-01 09:11180,0002016-03-31 20:30115,000[/th] (1) Electrek reported by Tesla VP BusDev at AVERE E-mobility Conference as near 400k, assuming 392k (conservative estimate) (2) SEC filing Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424 ============================================================================== From Thread: Chart for Model 3 Reservations (Cumulative and Hourly) with Interactive version here: https://goo.gl/6Ykex8 ============================================================================= From tmoz. Orders in Hundreds of Thousands. Orders = 325,000(1-exp(-hours/29hrs)). Rsquare goodness of fit is 0.996 ============================================================================= As per Tweet timeline. (Note: time is not to scale) =============================================================================
Elon has been tweeting the tally of the reservations received so far. The 2nd post is a wiki that I'll keep updated as numbers are released.
Great idea, but it looks like the X-axis intervals are evenly spaced even though the time between each X-axis point varies? This would result in an inaccurate curve.
Thanks, I'll see if we can get included in the tracker and would be good to add that to a Tally thread.
Nice job. However, is it possible that the dates for the 115,000 (4/1) and 180,000 (3/31) are incorrect?
Thanks, Fixed (had 2nd and 3rd dates mixed up). Waiting on the mods to make the 2nd post a wiki so I can update the graph and table.
That is pretty amazing! I was at the store 2 hours before opening and based on the spreadsheet here that had only 3 other people from the forum, I wasn't expecting much. When I got there 4 min after the doors to the mall opened, I was already about 20th in line and it swelled to hundreds. Clearly this car has been what a lot of people want and the genius $1000 reservation is low enough that people in the target demographic are easily on board. By a napkin-based calculation, assuming that most stores processed through people at a roughly similar rate, with the number of stores in my timezone, I think I am in the first 1000, which is nice to consider. Seems like this was one of those times that sleeping in would have a pretty hefty long-term result. Of course being EST I'll have a longer wait anyways.
How will Tesla manage to produce that many vehicles when they are having a hard time getting 10,000 to 20,000 model X delivered. It is great that that many want a model 3 but they will need to change lots of things as they exist today to do that.
You mean like making a car that has no falcon wing doors, no auto-extending handles, a very simple interior, made mostly of steel, a traditional notchback trunk, no panoramic windshield, and no instrument panel?
I expect with 250,000 orders today, there may additional manufacturing facilities around the world built or bought.
I need a new electric car, a smaller one to go with my S. Pondering the Bolt vs 3 (with tough firmly in cheek). The Bolt might be very practical, but if we asked Chevy how many reservations it has for the car, I will be it is a very small number....if any....and those are probably shifting! I just heard that Model 3 reservations are close to 290,000.
Tesla is going to be doing a massive hiring expansion to prepare for production very soon. Not to mention raising capital...
Latest tweet from Elon (from over 12 hours ago): "276k Model 3 orders by end of Sat" Source: Elon Musk on Twitter
Putting this in context, BMW produced 476,792 3-series in 2015. Imagine Tesla pre-selling 276,000 by Saturday night? That really beggars belief. More than 55% of the 3-series annual sales done in less than a week!
Just a suggestion, but I think "zero" should really be at 10AM daylight saving time in Sydney on March 31, when the first stores opened for reservations. That was 3/30/2016 23:00 UTC.