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Model 3 Reservation Tally

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Wiki, Apr 3, 2016.

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  1. Wiki

    Wiki Member

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    #1 Wiki, Apr 3, 2016
    Last edited by Genshi: Aug 31, 2016



    [/th]
    Date/TimeTally
    2016-05-15373,000 (2)
    2016-04-13392,000 (1)
    2016-04-07 10:21325,000
    2016-04-02 23:59276,000
    2016-04-02 07:00253,000
    2016-04-01 19:26232,000
    2016-04-01 10:23198,000
    2016-04-01 09:11180,000
    2016-03-31 20:30115,000


    (1) Electrek reported by Tesla VP BusDev at AVERE E-mobility Conference as near 400k, assuming 392k (conservative estimate)

    (2) SEC filing Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424

    ==============================================================================

    From Thread: Chart for Model 3 Reservations (Cumulative and Hourly) with Interactive version here: https://goo.gl/6Ykex8
    [​IMG]

    =============================================================================

    From tmoz. Orders in Hundreds of Thousands. Orders = 325,000(1-exp(-hours/29hrs)). Rsquare goodness of fit is 0.996
    [​IMG]

    =============================================================================

    As per Tweet timeline. (Note: time is not to scale)
    [​IMG]


    =============================================================================
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    Elon has been tweeting the tally of the reservations received so far. The 2nd post is a wiki that I'll keep updated as numbers are released.
     
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  3. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Great idea, but it looks like the X-axis intervals are evenly spaced even though the time between each X-axis point varies? This would result in an inaccurate curve.
     
  4. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    I'll try and normalize the time period in my next update. Added a table of the data for now.
     
  5. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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  6. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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  7. Pshooter

    Pshooter New Member

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    Nice job. However, is it possible that the dates for the 115,000 (4/1) and 180,000 (3/31) are incorrect?
     
  8. BravoSarah

    BravoSarah Member

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    @elonmusk just posted: 276k Model 3 orders by end of Sat
     
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  9. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    Thanks, Fixed (had 2nd and 3rd dates mixed up). Waiting on the mods to make the 2nd post a wiki so I can update the graph and table.
     
  10. xmetal

    xmetal Member

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    That is pretty amazing! I was at the store 2 hours before opening and based on the spreadsheet here that had only 3 other people from the forum, I wasn't expecting much. When I got there 4 min after the doors to the mall opened, I was already about 20th in line and it swelled to hundreds. Clearly this car has been what a lot of people want and the genius $1000 reservation is low enough that people in the target demographic are easily on board.

    By a napkin-based calculation, assuming that most stores processed through people at a roughly similar rate, with the number of stores in my timezone, I think I am in the first 1000, which is nice to consider. Seems like this was one of those times that sleeping in would have a pretty hefty long-term result. Of course being EST I'll have a longer wait anyways. ;)
     
  11. Merrill

    Merrill Active Member

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    How will Tesla manage to produce that many vehicles when they are having a hard time getting 10,000 to 20,000 model X delivered. It is great that that many want a model 3 but they will need to change lots of things as they exist today to do that.
     
  12. eloder

    eloder Active Member

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    You mean like making a car that has no falcon wing doors, no auto-extending handles, a very simple interior, made mostly of steel, a traditional notchback trunk, no panoramic windshield, and no instrument panel?
     
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  13. Beryl

    Beryl Member

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    Among other things, they will need to increase manufacturing staff. Great for USA job seekers.
     
  14. TFHutch

    TFHutch Electron Pilot

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    I expect with 250,000 orders today, there may additional manufacturing facilities around the world built or bought.
     
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  15. Ed Hart

    Ed Hart Member

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    Bolt vs Model 3.jpg I need a new electric car, a smaller one to go with my S. Pondering the Bolt vs 3 (with tough firmly in cheek). The Bolt might be very practical, but if we asked Chevy how many reservations it has for the car, I will be it is a very small number....if any....and those are probably shifting!
    I just heard that Model 3 reservations are close to 290,000.
     
  16. Lerxt

    Lerxt Member

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    Tesla is going to be doing a massive hiring expansion to prepare for production very soon. Not to mention raising capital...
     
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  17. b0r3dguy

    b0r3dguy Member

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    Latest tweet from Elon (from over 12 hours ago):

    "276k Model 3 orders by end of Sat"


    Source: Elon Musk on Twitter
     
  18. AlexT

    AlexT Member

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    Source?
     
  19. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Putting this in context, BMW produced 476,792 3-series in 2015. Imagine Tesla pre-selling 276,000 by Saturday night? That really beggars belief. More than 55% of the 3-series annual sales done in less than a week!
     
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  20. Breezy

    Breezy Member

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    Just a suggestion, but I think "zero" should really be at 10AM daylight saving time in Sydney on March 31, when the first stores opened for reservations. That was 3/30/2016 23:00 UTC.
     
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