Wiki Model 3 Reservation Tally

[AZ Desert Driver]

Oh dear, this latest 60KWh Model S is causing a problem for me. Can someone please explain how the PCP deal works. I would need the 3 year 20,000 mile per annum deal. A 60KWh car would give me easily enough range. On the first one of these I do, I know I would need the deposit and then pay the x amount per month. There is a guaranteed resale value of roughly £30k. If I decide to get another one (it would be rude not to!), do I have to pay the deposit again, or does the £30k residual go towards the next car?

I normally buy my cars outright, but the thought of a new one for not a lot of money is very tempting!

I was going to caution you that the Leasing Company gets to claim your Fed Tax credit - but because you are in London, those rules may be way different. But - if you are planning on a guaranteed trade in, perhaps you should drill deeper to see how real it is.

 

[colettimj]

I think the only thing they ever said was that reservations were approaching 400K. Now they have stated in an official government corporate filing that they have 373K reservations (after 12K orders were removed), so that seems pretty certain.

I wonder about the phrasing the in SEC filing, "we held deposits from about 373,000 customers".

Does a single customer placing two deposits = 1 or 2 customers?

 

[houdini]

Yeah, we just got an email yesterday. We're still trying to figure out what to do. Anyone have any thoughts? The complaint we received from Tesla said that we were using their logo (we grabbed an open source font from a website), and that we were using the word "Tesla" in our URL. We changed the logo in our website title since it seemed like a somewhat legitimate complaint. We want to keep going, it was pretty fun, but right now it seems like corporate Tesla is not going to let us.

When are you putting the site back? You can stop using the logo which is a trademark but the word tesla isn't. And even for what you're using it for it's fair use I reckon. We're on a site called teslamotors club after all.

 

[UncleMoose]

When are you putting the site back? You can stop using the logo which is a trademark but the word tesla isn't. And even for what you're using it for it's fair use I reckon. We're on a site called teslamotors club after all.

They are back as www.model3counter.com, but are still using the questionable method of using the confirmation email time to go by.
I think the reservation number that you could see on the MyTesla source code pretty well proved that it goes by when you made the reservation.

 

[SCW-Greg]

I just did some back of the napkin math to get in to what I hope is the ball park. And my circumstances are a bit easier to estimate ...

1) According to a couple of leaks/articles posted about the possible real reservation numbers hidden in the Tesla website html, it was deduced that there about 10-13,000 Tesla and SapceX reservations. Which jives with some our local club member conversations we had the morning registration started.

2) There are about 200 Tesla stores.

3) I know I was number 7 registered in and out of our store (by about 10:10am) on 3/31.

4) Westcoast, Portland location.

5) "In between" Tesla owner*

So just to be a bit conservative, assuming I'm among the first approx 20 registered per ~ 200 stores, that would put me in the top 4,000... after the first 10,000 to 13,000 employee registrations. Makes my order rank approx #14,000-17,000.

As stated by Tesla, current Tesla owners and Westcoast deliveries will be prioritized after employee production.

* My one caveat, I'm no longer a Model S owner. I'm in between. So I may have a little less standing than I hope.



I don't think the Model3Counter properly considers all of these variables.

 

[timk225]

How many Model S/X/Roadster owners reserved a 3 on the first day?

 

[doubleatheman]

Looking at the google docs spreadsheet from a few weeks ago with the reservation ID (subsequently pulled from the mytesla page), I was able to pinpoint down pretty close what order number I was. Ordering in California at 10:23 am on 3/31/16 I was in this group: 386xxx. Assuming the number starts at 350,000 and there were 12,000 employee orders (the spreadsheet numbers point to these both being valid), this puts me around the 24,000th order total order, or around the 2025th order in California.


Looking at sales in each hour grouping per timezone as more tesla stores opened I selected the data points in those groups.

I was most curious about the rate of orders leading right up to the california 10AM start time on 3/31/16, this is what it looked like:

Tesla was still processing about 26 orders per minute at that time.

Then at 10AM the California order frenzy started:

Tesla was processing about 114 orders per minute in total, so 88 per minute increase from the rate just prior.

And gut check this, Tesla has 27 stores in CA, each store with 6 kiosks on average, 162 total kiosks.... 2 minutes per person this comes out to 81 orders per minute, surprisingly close to my 88 per minute.

Using the prior sales rate in the 9am pst hour to 10am pst hour, I can safely place my 10:23 am PST order as being the 2025th person Plus or minus about 50 people.... to order the Tesla Model 3 in California.

 

[EaglesPDX]

My "Thank you for Tesla 3 Reservation" email had no ID number on it. What's with that?

 

[GermanMIII]

My "Thank you for Tesla 3 Reservation" email had no ID number on it. What's with that?

You can get your RN from your mytesla account. Simply click on "forgot my password" and you will get your passwort. Use the email you used for your reservation.
The reservation ID was only available through the html code of the mytesla site for a short time until tesla removed the information.

 

[EaglesPDX]

You can get your RN from your mytesla account. Simply click on "forgot my password" and you will get your passwort. Use the email you used for your reservation.
The reservation ID was only available through the html code of the mytesla site for a short time until tesla removed the information.

That worked. Thanks.

 

[tkizzy]

They are back as www.model3counter.com, but are still using the questionable method of using the confirmation email time to go by.
I think the reservation number that you could see on the MyTesla source code pretty well proved that it goes by when you made the reservation.

I'm glad the creator made it, but my god is it horrible with regards to touch input.
Anyway, v 2.0 of the algorithm pegs me at ~14,300

 

[tsla007]

Sorry but 510k estimated reservations is so wrong. Way way wrong.

 

[EaglesPDX]

Well it says I'm 310,000 in line and I'll get my car in 2020.

For a West Coaster (non owner, non employee) who got my order in April 1 and got my confirmation an hour or two before Musk tweeted they had hit 198,xxx, that seems a tad off.

On the bright side, V2 says I'm 349,000 in line but will get my car Feb. 2018.

If every Tesla employee (10,000) and every Tesla owner (125,000) ordered a T3 and every order in front of me was on the West coast, I would be 336,000 on the delivery line. No rush, the Plugless has to be out a couple months before I can take delivery.

I'm thinking the thing is a random number generator used to harvest emails for Tesla 3 depositors. Glad I used a 'play' email account.

 

[DSBS4]

Would a new Model S owner that made a new reservation today get priority over non-owners that placed their reservations months ago or has that ship sailed?

 

[MassModel3]

Would a new Model S owner that made a new reservation today get priority over non-owners that placed their reservations months ago or has that ship sailed?

I'm pretty sure that question was asked of EM via twitter, with the answer being that yes, you would get priority in that case.

EDIT: A new owner would get bumped in priority, but a new Model S reservation holder is not, technically, a new owner yet. So your question is faulty.

 

[vinnie97]

Well it says I'm 310,000 in line and I'll get my car in 2020.

For a West Coaster (non owner, non employee) who got my order in April 1 and got my confirmation an hour or two before Musk tweeted they had hit 198,xxx, that seems a tad off.

On the bright side, V2 says I'm 349,000 in line but will get my car Feb. 2018.

If every Tesla employee (10,000) and every Tesla owner (125,000) ordered a T3 and every order in front of me was on the West coast, I would be 336,000 on the delivery line. No rush, the Plugless has to be out a couple months before I can take delivery.

I'm thinking the thing is a random number generator used to harvest emails for Tesla 3 depositors. Glad I used a 'play' email account.

This algorithm certainly puts an extreme amount of weight on email confirmation time. My confirmation email didn't arrive until well over 24 hours after I made the reservation in-store in Las Vegas (probably around 9:45 a.m.). I'm given an estimated spot of 242,476 and delivery time of May 2018. Not completely illogical since the west coast is getting priority, and I'm in the mountain time zone.

 

[EaglesPDX]

This algorithm certainly puts an extreme amount of weight on email confirmation time.

I would think when order was received and recorded by Tesla. When Tesla charged the $1,000 to the credit card.

Email confirmation dates from Tesla would not seem accurate.

All Tesla can share now is customer's numeric order in line.

The delivery algorithms, while stated by Tesla when we ordered, are a still a bit vague. For example, you ordered in the store on March 31. I ordered online April 1. My reading of it is that those who ordered in the store would come before anyone other than Tesla/SpaceX employees and current Tesla owners. Your Mountain time order in store order would be delivered before my West coast online order.

 

[Odebek]

Looks like I moved up a year a bit by purchasing a Model S

As Normal Joe:
The date and time you provided for your email confirmation was: 04/01/2016 11:47PM (America/Los_Angeles).
Based on the above information, your estimated position in line is 349,274 and shipping date is October 2018.

As Current Owner:
The date and time you provided for your email confirmation was: 04/01/2016 11:47PM (America/Los_Angeles).
Based on the above information, your estimated position in line is 39,485 and shipping date is November 2017.

 

[vinnie97]

I would think when order was received and recorded by Tesla. When Tesla charged the $1,000 to the credit card.

Email confirmation dates from Tesla would not seem accurate.

All Tesla can share now is customer's numeric order in line.

The delivery algorithms, while stated by Tesla when we ordered, are a still a bit vague. For example, you ordered in the store on March 31. I ordered online April 1. My reading of it is that those who ordered in the store would come before anyone other than Tesla/SpaceX employees and current Tesla owners. Your Mountain time order in store order would be delivered before my West coast online order.

To further complicate the issue, the reservation was made in pacific time (Las Vegas) whereas I live in the neighboring time zone. I'm assuming that location the order was made will take a backseat to my physical location. Additionally, I may have inherited a windfall, so there's a chance I can upgrade the options to support more bells and whistles (and perhaps expect a delivery before May 2018).

On a sidenote, I wonder if Solar City owners will soon get precedence over new customers?

 

[raysspl]

Going to order 2 when I finally see 'em driven by the public