Wiki Model 3 Reservation Tally

[Dan Detweiler]

Has anyone heard of the latest number of reservations made? Curious as to whether orders are still trickling in or if it has pretty much stayed where it was say, 2 months ago. Wondering if it ever reached 500,000.

Dan

 

[alseTrick]

I've seen "over 400,000" used in every recent article I've read that cited an actual figure. But I don't know where that figure came from.

I don't think there will be many reservations between now and the next reveal, either. And even after the second reveal I would expect the bump in reservations to be smaller/slower than after the initial reveal.

 

[MassModel3]

Going to order 2 when I finally see 'em driven by the public

It's a fully refundable deposit and there's a few hundred thousand people ahead of you, so if you put in a deposit now they'll be all over the place by the time you're order is up. That will give you time to confirm or get your money back while still seeing how they do in the wild. Once you're happy, you can reserve your second one.

I just reserved my second one last week with the expectation that it'll be 9 to 12 months (or more) later than the first, but hopefully still getting some of the federal tax incentives and state rebates.

 

[PghMike]

This algorithm certainly puts an extreme amount of weight on email confirmation time. My confirmation email didn't arrive until well over 24 hours after I made the reservation in-store in Las Vegas (probably around 9:45 a.m.). I'm given an estimated spot of 242,476 and delivery time of May 2018.

I agree, too much weight on confirmation email time. Estimating my spot at ~382k. I was about 40-50 or so people from the front of the line in Pittsburgh, and placed my reservation at about 10:40am EST. My reservation number was available in "mytesla" within an hour, but I didn't receive my confirmation email for about 56 hours.

 

[Breezy]

According to the latest information from Tesla (to Electrek), the official reservation count still stands at 373,000.

Tesla Model 3: confusion over reservation numbers spur unfounded fear of decline, Tesla reaffirms 373,000

 

[dhanson865]

fwiw all it'd take for me to put a reservation in would be for them to put or even announce the service center location for my metro area*. It's the only thing holding me back from reserving one at this point.

If you think about how many US cities don't have a service center there are likely a large group of people out there waiting to pull the trigger. If Elon mentions service center coming soon list style at the Model 3 reveal that alone could pull in tons of reservations. (of course he has tons of tech to do even more but it just goes to show how low the bar is to pull in more orders).

* It could be an empty lot or a condemned building and just them posting a coming soon address would be enough for me to know it'd be there by the time my later order would be in hand.

 

[physicsfita]

fwiw all it'd take for me to put a reservation in would be for them to put or even announce the service center location for my metro area*. It's the only thing holding me back from reserving one at this point.

If you think about how many US cities don't have a service center there are likely a large group of people out there waiting to pull the trigger. If Elon mentions service center coming soon list style at the Model 3 reveal that alone could pull in tons of reservations. (of course he has tons of tech to do even more but it just goes to show how low the bar is to pull in more orders).

* It could be an empty lot or a condemned building and just them posting a coming soon address would be enough for me to know it'd be there by the time my later order would be in hand.

I think you might want to be slightly more selective in those criteria. Tesla has listed a service center on their website as "coming soon" to Detroit for well over two years now. Odd, since no manufacturer, not GM, not Ford, not Toyota, etc. is allowed to build one by state law. To their credit, Tesla did try to get the law changed last winter, but nothing happened.

Still, I would at least hold out for at least actual construction happening on a service center location if that's a priority for you. I've already told my sales reps in Ohio that if they can't get in to Michigan that I would need to see a service center in the Toledo area so I'd only have to drive an hour for service. (Or, they could make their service manuals available to Belle Tire or someone like that -- that'd be ok, too!)

 

[vinnie97]

I'm 2 hours from the nearest center as it is now.

 

[dhanson865]

I think you might want to be slightly more selective in those criteria. Tesla has listed a service center on their website as "coming soon" to Detroit for well over two years now. Odd, since no manufacturer, not GM, not Ford, not Toyota, etc. is allowed to build one by state law. To their credit, Tesla did try to get the law changed last winter, but nothing happened.

Still, I would at least hold out for at least actual construction happening on a service center location if that's a priority for you. I've already told my sales reps in Ohio that if they can't get in to Michigan that I would need to see a service center in the Toledo area so I'd only have to drive an hour for service. (Or, they could make their service manuals available to Belle Tire or someone like that -- that'd be ok, too!)

Michigan is an exception to the rule. In most of the US Tesla can build a service center. Even in the states that won't let them build a store, they can build a service center.

Also note that I said reservation not a confirmed order. I'd put my deposit and reservation in on seeing an address/coming soon pin. I'd confirm the order later after it started construction or was finished.

There is already a service center in my state it's just that its almost 200 miles away from my city.

Charlotte, NC (249 miles per google maps driving directions, from my house, shorter from downtown)
Atlanta, GA (213 miles per gmdd from my house, further from downtown)
Nashville, TN (183 miles per gmdd from my house, further from downtown)

I live in the in the middle between two of them on a east west line and the other is nearly due south about the same distance.

I don't say it lightly that a service center needs to be less than 70 miles away from my City for me to take action. The three cities below are just outside the range but would make the situation better if they had a service center.

Chattanooga, TN is about 100 miles (no service center there).
London, KY is about 100 miles (no service center there).
Asheville, NC is about 120 miles (no service center there).

But since my city is bigger than all 3 of those I'd expect one here before any of those.

 

[physicsfita]

Michigan is an exception to the rule. In most of the US Tesla can build a service center. Even in the states that won't let them build a store, they can build a service center.

Agreed. It just seems odd to me that since I'm sure Tesla would be aware of our ridiculous law that they would still put a site on the webpage as "coming soon". It sounds like you have a good approach to me.

 

[dsvick]

This article, Tesla's Inventory Turnover: By-product of Innovation or Cause for Concern? -- The Motley Fool, has a quote in it that says "Reservations have since swelled to nearly 500,000, leaving many players in the industry envious".

Do they know something no one else knows?
Are they rounding to the nearest half million?
Is it just a typo?

 

[Mark C]

Michigan is an exception to the rule. In most of the US Tesla can build a service center. Even in the states that won't let them build a store, they can build a service center.

There is already a service center in my state it's just that its almost 200 miles away from my city.

Charlotte, NC (249 miles per google maps driving directions, from my house, shorter from downtown)
Atlanta, GA (213 miles per gmdd from my house, further from downtown)
Nashville, TN (183 miles per gmdd from my house, further from downtown)

I live iin north Alabama, so Nashville & Atlanta are the closest 2 service centers to me. I put my reservation in on 4/5. I don't care if there's a service center, I care if the car gets serviced. If they send a guy out to fix it, ok. If they bring me a loaner car when they fetch it for repair, ok & {my 1st choice} if it doesn't need repaired for quite some time, it probably won't be an issue.

 

[dhanson865]

I live in north Alabama, so Nashville & Atlanta are the closest 2 service centers to me. I put my reservation in on 4/5. I don't care if there's a service center, I care if the car gets serviced. If they send a guy out to fix it, ok. If they bring me a loaner car when they fetch it for repair, ok & {my 1st choice} if it doesn't need repaired for quite some time, it probably won't be an issue.

While they may change policies again in the future there are numerous threads here saying that they charge extra for towing longer distances

12v battery died 250 miles from SC making me pay for 150 mile towing

Tesla's policy is to cover only 50 miles. Now she extended it to 100 but that still leaves me to cover 150 miles at $3.5 per mile for a warranty item repair to get the car to a service center.

Tesla will send a ranger in some cases, they will pay for towing in some cases, but you will also deal with inconvenience in some cases if you are too far away from a service center.

Also apparently if there isn't a service center near enough the ranger will pay to use the facility at a local shop, like say for example a Sears Auto Center Suspension Problem on Model S

I'm thinking that is a less than optimal arrangement should I need to have the car serviced for warranty items.

And how about that towing

Tesla Emergency Road Side Service?

Tesla provides emergency roadside assistance during the warranty period. Like other manufacturers, they contract with local tow services of varying quality. I waited 3 hours on a Friday evening at the side of the road waiting for a flat bed when my drive unit failed. Since there is no spare, they will pick up the car when you have a flat.

All I'm saying is having a service center close by means less variables in the quality of service should you need it. I'm not saying Tesla's are the least reliable car on the planet, I'm willing to drive a Tesla. I'm just saying I'm playing it safe and waiting for a service center near by before I pull the trigger.

oh and FWIW from Arab, Alabama the numbers are

Atlanta, GA (150 miles per gmdd)
Nashville, TN (133 miles per gmdd)

Surely they'll but one in Birmingham or Montgomery and save you some miles? Nope, Birmingham saves you tons of miles but Montgomery is too far away you'd still be better off with Nashville. So for you if they don't choose Birmingham there is no reason to wait.

 

[vinnie97]

I'll be 137 miles from the nearest service center, gulp.

 

[SageBrush]

Do they know something no one else knows?

The MF ?
Most definitely not.

 

[SageBrush]

I'll be 137 miles from the nearest service center, gulp.

250 miles for me, less if the Tesla flies ;-)

 

[evp]

Yeah, they're going to have to build about 300 new US service centers in the next two years to handle the influx of Model 3 deliveries. That's about one every three days. I don't see any indication this task is in progress. Maybe they will start an "authorized Tesla repair shop" program?

 

[SCW-Greg]

Stay on target... er... stay on topic.

 

[MissAutobahn]

Yeah, they're going to have to build about 300 new US service centers in the next two years to handle the influx of Model 3 deliveries. That's about one every three days. I don't see any indication this task is in progress. Maybe they will start an "authorized Tesla repair shop" program?

I understood the sentence in the electrek story somehow different.
"Tesla plans to have over 300 stores by the end of the year, up from about 260 at the moment, and the number should go up to 450 by the time the Model 3 hits the market in 2017."

For me that means: 40 this year and until the end of 2017 a total of 190 new stores, worldwide.

 

[fluxemag]

Just sold my MS last week and put in a Model 3 order. Actually planning on ordering two. The sad part is I have to drive something else for two years.