SebastianR
Active Member
I wonder if this gets picked up by the media and - by itself - could lead to a small storm of people trying to get their reservation down on the 31st/1st? At least for the US?
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Model 3 reservations ($1000 down) will be accepted in Tesla stores....
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I wonder if this gets picked up by the media and - by itself - could lead to a small storm of people trying to get their reservation down on the 31st/1st? At least for the US?
I think a bigger item will be the "late 2017" delivery. Is there anyone that does NOT believe that, if all goes well, that means December 2017?
For me, I see another issue. If I get my Model 3 delivered in December, I can turn around and get my $7500 within 90 days if I file my taxes early enough. If it doesn't come until January, I have to wait until the following year to get my money. That COULD have an impact for some people.
For me, I see another issue. If I get my Model 3 delivered in December, I can turn around and get my $7500 within 90 days if I file my taxes early enough. If it doesn't come until January, I have to wait until the following year to get my money. That COULD have an impact for some people.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Your analysis is detailed and impressive, but with so many assumptions and unknowns at this point, I think your 17,500 estimate could vary by a few standard deviations either way from the expected value from 0 up to 50,000 or more. I don't think it presents enough actionable data to say that one needs to reserve the first day or two in order to get a tax credit.
As someone else pointed out, if Tesla sells 200,000 cars in the quarter *following* hitting the 200k mark, they all still get the full tax credit. Then it goes to 50% in the second quarter after hitting the mark.
There's just no way to tell how it will play out in the end.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
I also wanted to add that the final number is also dependent on when in the quarter Tesla hits the 200k mark. If they hit the 200k mark on the very last day of the quarter, that's only one more quarter of sales that will qualify. But if they wait one more day and hit the mark on the first day of the next quarter, that's two full quarters of sales that will qualify for the full tax credit.
So your M3 estimate has to as least vary one full quarter in either direction of sales since we don't know the date or quarter.
I can also imagine that at the very end of the last full tax credit quarter, there's going to be a big push by Tesla (and demanding buyers) to get as many cars delivered as possible (of all three models), so that also could allow many more people to qualify for the full tax credit.
Another factor, although unlikely, is that the legislation changes to increase the limit.
So your M3 estimate has to as least vary one full quarter in either direction of sales since we don't know the date or quarter.
I can also imagine that at the very end of the last full tax credit quarter, there's going to be a big push by Tesla (and demanding buyers) to get as many cars delivered as possible (of all three models), so that also could allow many more people to qualify for the full tax credit.
Another factor, although unlikely, is that the legislation changes to increase the limit.
flankspeed8
Member
My optimistic hope is that our Congress would see the folly in NOT extending the credit for Tesla and even possibly GM since they would be most likely the first to exhaust all credits. You don't want to hurt the early movers by allowing all the other legacy manufactures to sit on their credits because of lack of action and then theoretically making their products artificially more desirable based on price simply because the big players are out of credits. That's why in the end it really needs to be all or nothing for every manufacturer. Any phase outs should apply to all. Or better yet just set a sunset for 5-10 years from now.
The chance of happening for what I am going to suggest is zero, but it would be cool if the law changed so that rather than say 20 mfrs. each with 200,000 possible full credits, there would simply be 4,000,000 full credits. You might see more of a scramble from legacy mfrs. then. But, won't happen.
flankspeed8
Member
Agreed. The sad thing is that this rewards those manufactures who have done nothing to benefit. I guess an unintended result of a well meaning law. You would think the California Congressional delegation would wield more power than the Michigan delegation simply because of size.
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
Excited to join the forum. I have talked with the North Park Mall location and they WILL be accepting deposits in store/gallery.
I can't speak for elsewhere but here in Salt Lake they are about to replace the current, temporary 1 bay service area with a much larger facility nearby.
It is kind of funny that even with the current restrictions on selling here in Utah the Tesla store has loads of business. I can only image the mad house it's going to turn into once the legislature changes the law (hopefully in the next few weeks).
Go Tesla!
Tesla could produce a lot of Model 3's without "selling" them while delivering a small and controlled amount of cars to the US market. When the 200,000 mark is very close, wait for the first day of a quarter and then flood the market with thousands of Model 3's and divert all the "stock" and majority of production to the US market for the rest of the following three quarters. Depending on the ramp up (and demand), it could mean 200,000 Model 3's on those three quarters (and 50,000 Model S/X's).
Just an idea...
Just an idea...
Thanks for that info. I was about to call North Park Mall Tesla to confirm. I will see you there. Now we just need to know what time to be there by.
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Is receiving the $7500 tax credit based on when you ordered and paid for your car or is it contingent on delivery date?
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Googled and found my answer...
If I ordered a vehicle in 2013 but it wasn’t delivered until 2014, can I claim the credit when I file my 2013 tax return?
Taxpayers can only claim this credit in the year when the vehicle is placed in service. The IRS has issued guidance defining ‘placed in service’ as the year in which a taxpayer takes delivery of the vehicle.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Yeah, and illegal to game the tax code like that. The IRS and the stock market would decimate Tesla Motors for pulling that kind of stunt.
Delivery date or "in service" date.
Nobody can stop Tesla from creating some stock and increase capacity of its factory even if that happens at the same time that the federal tax credits gets on the phase out period. They could even sell the car half-baked and the you would need a visit to the service center for "inspection"
.Even in Denmark they do this kind of stuff, they do not buy the cars with radio because it gets 170% VAT and then the service center installs it afterwards. And what about the loophole on the Hummer law that allowed tax "evasion" to Hummer buyers thanks to its massive weight? That mega-gas-guzzling horrible 10 mpg car...
It's completely legal, Tesla would just try to max out the benefits of the federal tax credits and I think it is a worthy cause. The stock market would be very pleased to see TESLA being able to outsell BMW 3 series.
flankspeed8
Member
The same massive loophole which is available on the X because of its massive weight? :biggrin:
SebastianR
Active Member
Nobody can stop Tesla from creating some stock and increase capacity of its factory even if that happens at the same time that the federal tax credits gets on the phase out period. They could even sell the car half-baked and the you would need a visit to the service center for "inspection"
Even in Denmark they do this kind of stuff, they do not buy the cars with radio because it gets 170% VAT and then the service center installs it afterwards. [...]
It's completely legal, Tesla would just try to max out the benefits of the federal tax credits and I think it is a worthy cause. The stock market would be very pleased to see TESLA being able to outsell BMW 3 series.
What you write is flatout wrong. Sorry to be so blunt. Please don't spread this kind of misinformation. True there is a tax - which can amount up to 180% of the price of the car - on regular ICE cars. True that lots of Danes - for this very reason - buy small and/or barebones cars. But there is no "aftermarket" adding stuff to cars - at least not more than in other markets. And there is certainly no "add a radio after purchase" issue. Tesla certainly doesn't game the Danish tax system. They experienced a lot of car sales and were accused of trying to game the system but they never did and the people accusing Tesla had to apologise and retract their statements.
Damn! I plan to order 3 x Model 3. But I am on vacation in Mexico, returning on April 1st. I would have loved to see the lines at our local Santa Barbara store. :crying:
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Nobody can stop Tesla from creating some stock and increase capacity of its factory even if that happens at the same time that the federal tax credits gets on the phase out period. They could even sell the car half-baked and the you would need a visit to the service center for "inspection"
Yeah, it's called tax evasion and stock manipulation. Criminal offenses if found guilty. And if not found guilty, it's really bad press for Tesla and Tesla owners. If there's clear evidence that Tesla is stockpiling cars in order to maximize the number of cars eligible for the tax credit, and they aren't selling those cars into the channel, you can bet the IRS and the stock market will not treat Tesla well. If you say "nobody can stop them" -- You're right, nobody can stop them from doing that. That doesn't mean those actions don't come with significant legal and financial consequences. Nobody can stop me from insider trading either. Doesn't mean it's legal.
If you don't believe me, let's see if Tesla actually does that. It would be foolish and illegal for them to even try.
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