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Model 3 reveal affect on other luxury car sales

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by RubberToe, Apr 12, 2016.

  1. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    I thought I would start another thread similar to my Model S and Model X sales trackers. But this time to see what affect the announcement of the Model 3 reveal, and the reveal itself had on the sales of comparable luxury cars. Not sure exactly when they announced that the reveal would be on 3-31-16, so I'll start out by tracking 2016 sales versus 2015 sales. People knew the reveal was coming, but didn't yet know the specifics. What we see below so far might be categorized as the "Coming of the Model 3" affect. There are of course other reasons for the fluctuations, I'm just presenting the numbers and you all can draw your own conclusions.

    Starting with the April sales numbers, we should start seeing the first indication of people stopping purchases based on what they found out about the Model 3. And there are certainly a lot of people planning on buying a Model 3, so you would expect sales of other manufacturers comparable models to decrease to some degree.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. EXOTIC1

    EXOTIC1 Member

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    The model 3 realease will hurt the 50k and under cars potentially however, the guys/gals who are spending 75k plus aren't buying the model 3 over another brand car. MS will take away some of those sales.:)
     
  3. CyberKnife

    CyberKnife Member

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    I'm not in the market for a luxury car. There is no competition between the model 3 and another $35k car that I know out there for what you get. I think the model 3 may take away sales from cars in the high $20ks because factoring in gas cost savings and the potential of EV tax credit the model 3 can reach to buyers in the high 20ks potentially.
     
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  4. yesup

    yesup Member

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    I very much doubt people would hold off buying cars for 2 years.
    And you can't say any drop in sales is due to Model 3 - it is probably more related to economic climate.

    The only way you can conclude that Model 3 is taking sales away from other brand is to wait for sales numbers in 2018 and 2019.
    A drop is sales in other brands in association of the rise in sales in Tesla would give you stronger evidence of Model 3 effect.
     
  5. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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  6. AUSinator

    AUSinator Member

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    Nice work Flatsix. Let's say your table right that would be the slow end of ICE for sure.
     
  7. physicsfita

    physicsfita Member

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    At least at the store I was line up at, I didn't see very many (any?) of the vehicles on your list. It seemed that most of the people parked at the Cleveland, OH store were driving cars similar to a Honda Accord. There were also a fair number of Priuses and a couple of Volts. One LEAF that I saw. (Also a Mini.) I don't know if it's possible to project what may happen to those cars or not in a statistically meaningful way.
     
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  8. ElectricTundra

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    Keep in mind that people lined up at stores accounted for only about 25% of reservations. Is there a possibility that someone who currently drives a mid-luxury is less likely to have stood in line and reserved online instead?

    I think the Model 3 will do similar to the Model S. It will attract people in it's closest segment (mid-luxury) as well as people in less costly segments who normally would not pay that much for a car but will for a Tesla.
     
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  9. Trips

    Trips Member

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    I am holding off for 2+ years on getting a Lexus IS/ES. I currently have a 2011 IS 350.

    The graph needs to have the Lexus IS and BMW 3 series on the graph and look at multiple years. 1 year or month will not show any trends.
     
  10. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    I will add these to the spreadsheet next month. Not sure about going back too far.

    RT
     
  11. Drivin

    Drivin Member

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    Using your logic, that means that the announcement of the 3 caused more people to want to buy a Q50 or XF.
    Well, that makes just as much sense.
     
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  12. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Member

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    Well, I'll wait for a lot longer than 2 years, but my wife, who seems to want a new car every five year, would wait an extra few for a Model 3 if need be.
     
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  13. James Anders

    James Anders Member

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    Model 3 isn't a luxury car.
     
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  14. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    Went ahead and added the Lexus IS and BMW 3-series as requested:

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. CaptainKirk

    CaptainKirk Member

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    Great start with your list! It's definitely going to be interesting to see how the numbers change once Model 3 deliveries start. One thing to keep in mind is that is that the broader appeal of Model 3 means you will have people stretching to go upmarket as well as downmarket from other marques. For example, on the BMW Canada website, the 2 Series Coupe starts at $36200, the 3 series at $39990, and the 4 Series at $49450. I think it's perfectly reasonable for a shopper to cross shop all of these with Model 3. Once the trim levels are announced for Model 3, we can then make a true comparison between all the cars. For Mercedes, I would expect the CLA class also to be cross shopped with Model 3. Sure, the Model 3 may cost more up front, but the Total Cost of Ownership should make those two comparable.

    Savvy shoppers will have done some basic math to calculate the cost of ownership, and it would be reasonable that these folks are also those who would wait 2+ years for their car. Those who truly cannot wait that time can get in line once Model 3 starts deliveries, but patience is a virtue.
     
  16. Luke42

    Luke42 Member

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    #16 Luke42, Apr 18, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
    I'm not in the market for a luxury car. I don't see what the big deal is about BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, et al -- it seems like you're just paying extra for the same old technology that's under the hood of every other car. My experiences with BMWs in particular has been that they're just cars.

    The Model 3 is competing with the Chevy Bolt/Volt, the Leaf 2.0, and Prii of every age for a slot in my driveway.

    Ive nevwr seriously considered owning a 3-series or an A4. I'm just not a luxury car kind of guy. Don't get me wrong, I like to be comfortable, but Fords and Toyotas are plenty comfortable for me. The things I consider to be luxury features (leather seats, a sunroof, nice-looking interior) are merely nice-to-haves, and are available in Fords and Toyotas.

    Why am I interested in the Model 3?

    The Model 3 is the most serious EV available, and it actually had interesting technology under the hood. Oh, and Tesla stepped up to take my money first. Any luxury features they put in my cat will be appreciated, but they'll just be a pleasant side effect of the new and interesting technology I'm really after.

    I don't know what proportion of the reservation holders people like me are, but I'd be reluctant to assume too much about who's going to loose sales to Tesla.
     
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  17. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    A couple additions. Added the Prius and the Plugin Prius. While the plug in version (Prius Prime) won't be out for a while, I suspect that like Luke42 mentions, the Model 3 may start eating into regular Prius sales. While Prius sales have been trending way down recently anyway, the upcoming release of the Model 3 isn't going to help Toyota out by any means. The Prius demise and the Mirai debacle are only going to show how badly Toyota dropped the ball WRT any non-ICE drivetrain.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    In my case, I special ordered a MB-E for European delivery. It was ordered Christmas to be picked up May 2016, and it would be the first release of a 2017 model. Expensive, fully loaded with "the best" auto driving capabilities.

    I canceled that order, placed my Model 3 order...and bought a Accord for the next two-three years.

    Figured Model 3 would have same, or better features as MB. Price is about half - but price did not dictate the decision...Quality did.
    Accord is a nice car...quite functional. New car has all those fuzzy grins. But no where near the excitement of the M3.
    Not sure how these mindsets feed into your table.
     
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  19. StraightDave

    StraightDave Member

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    If you are not in the market for a luxury car then why are you buying an M3? I have a bridge to sell you if you think you are getting the M3 for $35k.

    And people in the luxury car market probably don't give a crap about the environment and gas prices don't matter either.
     
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  20. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    I expect to get a model 3 for under $30,000 after credits/rebates, you can keep your bridge.
     
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