Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I think a whole lot of different 'car Bs' (named 3-Series, A4, ATS, C-Class, IS, Q50 or XE) will be going unsold in the next five years if they are not fully electric.
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Well, the August sales numbers for all the Model 3 competitors are in. No point in making the drooling masses wait any longer, so on to the spreadsheet...
Nothing much new here, lots of RED as usual, but we are getting used to that. 15 of the 20 vehicles being tracked show August sales that are down from 2015 levels. The Audi A4 looks to be able to hang green through the year barring an end of year collapse, but sales have been pretty steady so far in 2016. Our other green entry, the Jaguar XF, sells a few hundred cars a month.
Also note that the 800lb Gorilla in the room (Toyota Prius) finally just squeaked over the 10,000 monthly sales mark. Not unlink a marathon runner who manages to barely stumble across the finish line, only to collapse like a quivering blob of jello. I guess that 117 month 0% financing and $47,000 pre-paid credit card (some severe limitations apply) deals are showing some results! Can't wait to see how the rest of the year pans out.
[URL=http://s882.photobucket.com/user/RubberToe420/media/runner_zps46u60tip.jpg.html]
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I checked prior years Prius sales to see how many months they hit 10,000 total sales, here is that data:
2010: 10
2011: 7
2012: 8
2013: 7
2014: 6
2015: 4
2016: 1 so far
And yes, I know, the Prius V and the Prius C sell about 1,400 units per month each, so I'm not comparing Apples to Lemurs, blah, blah, blah...
Nothing much new here, lots of RED as usual, but we are getting used to that. 15 of the 20 vehicles being tracked show August sales that are down from 2015 levels. The Audi A4 looks to be able to hang green through the year barring an end of year collapse, but sales have been pretty steady so far in 2016. Our other green entry, the Jaguar XF, sells a few hundred cars a month.
Also note that the 800lb Gorilla in the room (Toyota Prius) finally just squeaked over the 10,000 monthly sales mark. Not unlink a marathon runner who manages to barely stumble across the finish line, only to collapse like a quivering blob of jello. I guess that 117 month 0% financing and $47,000 pre-paid credit card (some severe limitations apply) deals are showing some results! Can't wait to see how the rest of the year pans out.
[URL=http://s882.photobucket.com/user/RubberToe420/media/runner_zps46u60tip.jpg.html]
[/URL]I checked prior years Prius sales to see how many months they hit 10,000 total sales, here is that data:
2010: 10
2011: 7
2012: 8
2013: 7
2014: 6
2015: 4
2016: 1 so far
And yes, I know, the Prius V and the Prius C sell about 1,400 units per month each, so I'm not comparing Apples to Lemurs, blah, blah, blah...
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Interesting data, thanks.
How are the $ numbers calculated, or where are they from ? Actual revenue, or some estimate based on ... ?
Sage,
The $$$ column at the end is simply the 2016 sales minus the 2015 sales multiplied by the MSRP. Basically a seat of the pants guess on my part. Just trying to get a basic handle on the $$$ up or down based on sales.
RT
Neo,
Mrs. Toe is driving a Fiat 500e, which has a $98 per month lease. We charge at home from solar panels, so no electricity cost. Her prior vehicle was a Honda Element, and the gas savings alone pay for the $98 and then some. So the Prius is not the most cost effective vehicle on the road, unless Mrs. Toe has run off the road on her way home from work today
All kidding aside, I used to own and drive a 2013 Prius Persona, Black Cherry Pearl. Beautiful car, no problems, 46MPG. My Snarkiness toward Toyota is due to their advanced case of arterial sclerosis, where the "fuel cell mania" flowing through their collective arteries has restricted the blood flow to their brains to such a degree that they have been "one upped" on the technology front by Tesla.
Toyota will go down in the history books right next to Kodak. They got completely off track, and put all their money on the wrong horse. And when it was pointed out to them by every sane person on the planet that their horse was lame, they tripled down and dropped another $1 billion on the race. This is not going to end well for those betting on the fuel cell horse. The Gigafactory and those that follow will be the last straw as battery costs plummet.
RT
ummgood
Member
That and the latest design is hideous.
Toyota seems suicidal.
They make reliable cars.
That are proudly hideous.
And hit cones, front tires are too skinny.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Those EV leases in California have been pretty good assuming someone drives less than 10k miles. Above that, things get pricier because of the mileage fees on leases. A used EV or hybrid is probably the lowest cost option, but for new cars some of those leases are hard to beat.Neo,
Mrs. Toe is driving a Fiat 500e, which has a $98 per month lease. We charge at home from solar panels, so no electricity cost. Her prior vehicle was a Honda Element, and the gas savings alone pay for the $98 and then some. So the Prius is not the most cost effective vehicle on the road, unless Mrs. Toe has run off the road on her way home from work today
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
September sales are now in:
The interesting news is that the Prius Prime pricing has now been revealed. Looks like Toyota is pricing it aggressively to compete. I saw a couple articles comparing it to the Volt and the Model 3. Time will tell. Some web sites were saying that the pricing was so good, it would start to pull sales away from the regular Prius. And that might be Toyotas plan for shifting over to plug-ins. Since it will be on sale in all 50 states, we should get a good idea if they will hit their stated 30,000 per year sales. They have a one year lead (minimum) on the Model 3 release, so they better may hay while the sun shines.
Many buyers may still be opting for SUV's versus these guys. But now with the Model X being sold in some pretty large numbers, the gross sales $$$ coming in for the highest margin vehicles is starting to disappear. This could be why some of the players are starting to make some noise...
[URL=http://s882.photobucket.com/user/RubberToe420/media/M3_09-16_zpspwwtebcd.jpg.html]
[/URL]
The interesting news is that the Prius Prime pricing has now been revealed. Looks like Toyota is pricing it aggressively to compete. I saw a couple articles comparing it to the Volt and the Model 3. Time will tell. Some web sites were saying that the pricing was so good, it would start to pull sales away from the regular Prius. And that might be Toyotas plan for shifting over to plug-ins. Since it will be on sale in all 50 states, we should get a good idea if they will hit their stated 30,000 per year sales. They have a one year lead (minimum) on the Model 3 release, so they better may hay while the sun shines.
Many buyers may still be opting for SUV's versus these guys. But now with the Model X being sold in some pretty large numbers, the gross sales $$$ coming in for the highest margin vehicles is starting to disappear. This could be why some of the players are starting to make some noise...
[URL=http://s882.photobucket.com/user/RubberToe420/media/M3_09-16_zpspwwtebcd.jpg.html]
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Very aggressively. For my use case and considering Colo tax credits, a lease may be too attractive to turn down. I estimate the car will reduce our transport related CO2 emissions 75% if my workplace lets me charge, half the reduction otherwise. Best case, we use less than one gallon a week total of petrol for daily and go-to-work drives.
I like the idea of leasing the Prius as a bridge to a used M3 or new MY in 3 years and using the saved money for PV and other clean energy investments. I presume the car will be out for sale in November but I don't think a firm date is set.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Hmmm... Toyota sold around 2,100,000 vehicles in the US during 2015, up from 2,000,000 in 2014, and 1,900,000 in 2013. 30,000 units amounts to roughly 1.4% of their US sales last year. But since they also build around 10,000,000 vehicles for annual worldwide sales, it also represents 0.3% of their total annual sales worldwide. Like the BOLT for GM, less than a rounding error. Thus, no real commitment at all.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I read (somewhere) that Toyota initially planned on 60k sales of the PPrime but now think that demand has softened and has adjusted it's output accordingly.
Unlike GM, who is making a compliance car and losing money on each one sold, Toyota (perhaps?) is just following the consumer market. BIG difference.
N5329K
Active Member
I'm glad Toyota figured a way to increase the battery capacity of the Prius and add a plug. Those are two very good things. But as a two-Prius (Gen 1 and V) owner, I think the Prius Prime is hideous on the eye and fails to solve the well-understood problem of that damned spoiler ruining rear visibility.
I would not buy one.
A plug-in V, that would be very interesting.
Robin
I would not buy one.
A plug-in V, that would be very interesting.
Robin
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
PPrime is reported as 133-ish MPGe. Unverified, I think that is a combined number and would split in similar ratios to the 54 MPG city, 52 MPG highway results. Off the cuff estimate of 130 MPGe highway, or about 260 Wh/mile with charging included. If 15% charging losses are presumed the on-highway EPA efficiency is ~ 222 Wh/mile.
Highway efficiency does not have the same importance to the PPrime that it does to a BEV but I find it interesting because I am an efficiency nut. Toyota engineering is quite remarkable to manage the efficiency levels of a straight BEV in a hybrid.
Highway efficiency does not have the same importance to the PPrime that it does to a BEV but I find it interesting because I am an efficiency nut. Toyota engineering is quite remarkable to manage the efficiency levels of a straight BEV in a hybrid.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I do not believe that the EPA's figures for MPGe have anything at all to do with actual energy consumption, so much as they do with the cost one must bear for them. I find your numbers for Prius Prime to be rather confusing. Because I seriously doubt that a gasoline powered car can achieve 222 Wh per mile. Ever.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Sorry I was unclear. The estimate is for Wh/mile in EV mode.
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