Model 3 reveal effect on other luxury car sales

[RubberToe]

And I now have the February numbers in...

The 3 columns on the right show YTD (year to date) deliveries, compared to the prior years YTD deliveries. Note that in the columns just to he left of that I show the previous 3 months of YOY comparisons. All other months are hidden.

Now that 2017 is in the books, I have added a set of 3 columns showing 2017/2016 comparison to the right of the 2016/2015 data. Won't be long until the Model 3 numbers overwhelm everything else in here.

Model 3 numbers are from Insideevs, the remaining data is from goodcarbadcar.net. In cases where that data is lacking I sometimes go to carsalesbase.com.

 

[RubberToe]

April numbers are now in. Now that the Model 3 is finally starting to be delivered in some small volumes, we can start tracking how long it will take before it starts outselling every car on the list. There are 21 other cars on the list, and the Model 3 so far this year is outselling 14 of the 21. Prius Plugin sales have made up for about half the sales lost by the lift back. The Model 3 outsold the Toyota Prius for the first time ever! The BMW 5-Series, Lexus ES and Infiniti Q50 are going to drop below the Model 3 next month. The Benz C-Class at the top of the heap will be the last to fall, probably 3 more months, maybe only two depending on the Model 3 ramp.

RT

 

[SageBrush]

Eyeball arithmetic says about 1/4 of this list in April are *lectrified cars. Good start, and about time.

 

[EinSV]

For April, the chart shows Model 3 selling more than every car listed except 2 -- Mercedes C and E. So number 3 out of 21.

 

[FlatSix911]

April numbers are now in. Now that the Model 3 is finally starting to be delivered in some small volumes, we can start tracking how long it will take before it starts outselling every car on the list. There are 21 other cars on the list, and the Model 3 so far this year is outselling 14 of the 21. Prius Plugin sales have made up for about half the sales lost by the lift back. The Model 3 outsold the Toyota Prius for the first time ever! The BMW 5-Series, Lexus ES and Infiniti Q50 are going to drop below the Model 3 next month. The Benz C-Class at the top of the heap will be the last to fall, probably 3 more months, maybe only two depending on the Model 3 ramp.
RT

For April, the chart shows Model 3 selling more than every car listed except 2 -- Mercedes C and E. So number 3 out of 21.

Mercedes is next to fall behind the Model 3 ... BMW, Audi and Lexus are already toast
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Tesla claims Model 3 is about to become the best-selling mid-size premium sedan in the US – electric or not
Despite its limited availability due to production constraints, Tesla’s Model 3 is already the best selling electric vehicle in the US by a significant margin. Now Tesla claims that Model 3 is also about to become the best-selling mid-size premium sedan in the US – beating gas-powered cars too.

The Model 3 wasn’t expected to rise to the top so fast due to its limited options at the beginning and the difficult production ramp, but Tesla predicts that Model 3 is “already on the cusp of becoming the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan in the US” in its Q1 2018 shareholders’ letter released today. Tesla produced this chart of the market share in the segment over the last 6 months (roughly since the start of Model 3 production):

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BMW appears to be the most affected in the market, which is interesting since a not-so-scientific poll showed that the BMW 3 Series was the most popular car that Model 3 reservation holders were replacing. In an investment thesis, Facebook millionaire turned venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya also predicted that BMW’s 3 Series will be the vehicle most impacted by Tesla’s Model 3.

 

[SageBrush]

I figure the Germans are going to start taking Tesla seriously any month now.

 

[vinnie97]

Is it just coincidence that Tesla loaned me a Benz C300 as the contracted body shop makes my 3 delivery ready? I guess it's the biggest competition with the current configuration, but I'm merely reminded about how much I loathe idling and burning fuel for no good reason.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Is it just coincidence that Tesla loaned me a Benz C300 as the contracted body shop makes my 3 delivery ready? I guess it's the biggest competition with the current configuration, but I'm merely reminded about how much I loathe idling and burning fuel for no good reason.

Perhaps-----they obtained the Benz on a trade and were making use of 'spare parts'?
I thought their goal was to outfit their loaner fleet with the most advanced Tesla configurations. Seems like a lofty goal-suitable for fulfillment years from now.. Makes more sense that they sell everything they produce - and loan out scrap. Good scrap, but scrap never-the-less.

 

[jbcarioca]

I figure the Germans are going to start taking Tesla seriously any month now.

They've been doing that for some time now.

 

[RubberToe]

April numbers are now in. Now that the Model 3 is finally starting to be delivered in some small volumes, we can start tracking how long it will take before it starts outselling every car on the list. There are 21 other cars on the list, and the Model 3 so far this year is outselling 14 of the 21. Prius Plugin sales have made up for about half the sales lost by the lift back. The Model 3 outsold the Toyota Prius for the first time ever! The BMW 5-Series, Lexus ES and Infiniti Q50 are going to drop below the Model 3 next month. The Benz C-Class at the top of the heap will be the last to fall, probably 3 more months, maybe only two depending on the Model 3 ramp.

RT

Last column label should be "2018/2017 % change". When we jumped into 2018 that is one column header I forgot to update. So the last column on the right shows the current YTD 2018 sales versus the same YTD sales in 2017.

RT

 

[vinnie97]

Perhaps-----they obtained the Benz on a trade and were making use of 'spare parts'?
I thought their goal was to outfit their loaner fleet with the most advanced Tesla configurations. Seems like a lofty goal-suitable for fulfillment years from now.. Makes more sense that they sell everything they produce - and loan out scrap. Good scrap, but scrap never-the-less.

The only fly in the ointment is they contracted with Enterprise to get the car apparently. They must be hard up for *any* loaner vehicles based on how many Tesla vehicles are in various stages of repair (cosmetic mostly). The local Service King says he fixes up on average 10 new Tesla vehicles a day, so I can see why they've had to outsource again.

 

[RubberToe]

May numbers are in, and they are very nice numbers indeed...

 

[Knightshade]

I do think it's a little awkward to look at the model 3 as outselling every car in its class without considering Tesla only has one car in this class...

For example Lexus has 3... combine their sales and they're ahead of the Model 3... Ditto if you combine sales on the 2 Mercedes on the list... or the 2 BMWs on the list (whose main difference to most is having 2 doors or 4)... ditto if you simply combine the 2 types of Prius on the list (though I don't really consider that a "premium" midsize)

 

[RobStark]

I do think it's a little awkward to look at the model 3 as outselling every car in its class without considering Tesla only has one car in this class...

For example Lexus has 3... combine their sales and they're ahead of the Model 3... Ditto if you combine sales on the 2 Mercedes on the list... or the 2 BMWs on the list (whose main difference to most is having 2 doors or 4)... ditto if you simply combine the 2 types of Prius on the list (though I don't really consider that a "premium" midsize)

Yes, Lexus,BMW and Mercedes are bigger automakers than Tesla.

Lexus ES is a FWD boulevard cruiser with full size interior with midsize exterior, IS a traditional compact sports sedan, and the GS a traditional midsize sports sedan.

Mercedes C Class is a compact sports sedan while E Class is a midsize sports sedan.

BMW 3 and 4 Series are essentially the same except 4 Series has a raked C pillar and offers a 2 door option.

Nobody considers Prius premium and most would not call it midsize although technically it qualifies.

Model 3 is a sports sedan with compact length but full size width generating a midsize interior. It doesn't fit neatly in a traditional ICEv class.

Hence you have all the info to slice and dice for yourself.

 

[FlatSix911]

The only numbers that really matter... Tesla Model 3 claims best-selling mid-sized premium sedan spot, gives production update

Tesla released new data during its shareholder meeting today and claims that after the ramp up in Model 3 deliveries over the last month, the new electric vehicle is now the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan in the US. CEO Elon Musk also gave a small update on the state of Model 3 production. Despite its limited availability due to production constraints, Tesla’s Model 3 already became the best selling electric vehicle in the US by a significant margin earlier this year.

Last month, Tesla claimed that Model 3 was about to become the best-selling mid-size premium sedan in the US – electric or not. It was surprising considering Tesla is still having some issues with its production, but it has made enough improvements to start catching up with demand with its current configuration. Now Tesla says that it has surpassed the Mercedes C-Class to take over the top position in the US as predicted last month:

 

[RobStark]

The only numbers that really matter... Tesla Model 3 claims best-selling mid-sized premium sedan spot, gives production update

It still matters that BMW split their sales in this class in two with 3 Series and 4 Series.

Together they still outsell Tesla in the US. But probably not for long.

 

[FlatSix911]

It still matters that BMW split their sales in this class in two with 3 Series and 4 Series.

Together they still outsell Tesla in the US. But probably not for long.

Agreed ... wait 3 months for the Model 3 to ramp production and game over BMW

 

[Spidy]

Mercedes C Class is a compact sports sedan while E Class is a midsize sports sedan.

You should tell Tesla that looks at graph above

 

[RobStark]

You should tell Tesla that looks at graph above

3 Series, A4, Lexus IS, and C Class are all compacts.

What Tesla calls them doesn't change that.

I would tell them that but I doubt they will listen.

 

[wdolson]

These guys under reported Model 3 sales by a large margin, but if you take the 6000 number for May, it slots in with some well established cars.
May 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Best-Selling Cars In America -

If Tesla does manage to get to 5000 cars a month soon, with most M3 sales in the US this year, that will put it well up there on the best selling cars list for the entire year. The M3 is priced in the premium market, but its base price overlaps with the top end of the mass market "family" cars like the Accord and the Camry.

The Model S collapsed the top end large sedan market which wasn't big, but has been dominated for years by European brands. The Europeans have taken notice and are doing more than anyone else to electrify. Part of that is Tesla breathing down their necks, but it's also their governments encouraging it.

The Asian and other American car makers have been more complacent, refusing to quite believe Tesla could eat into their market share. But a successful M3 would do that. That's probably why the FUD machine has gone into overdrive. Some people are trying to kill Tesla before Tesla can kill their favorite car company.

Tesla also has a big time advantage. There is a lot of talk of "Tesla killers" from one brand or another, but nobody is going to have enough batteries to compete in numbers with the Model 3 for at least 2 years, and probably more like 4. Look at how much Tesla evolved from the first year of the Model S in 2013 (about the same timeline point in MS production as M3 production now) through 2017. Even through 2015 the Model S was a dramatically better car than what they were building in 2013. And the Model X came out during that time frame, much later than expected. The Model 3 was much closer to its original timeline prediction.

There are other car companies that will be coming out with EVs in the next few years that might compete with Tesla on features. They will struggle to match the convenience and quality of super chargers, and nobody will be able to compete in volume. Which enables Tesla to build EVs cheaper than anyone else.