Model 3 reveal effect on other luxury car sales

[Chopr147]

In 2008 I spent 60k on a Yukon XL, gas was $4.25 a gallon. As I signed the papers I was wondering what the hell am I doing? I still have the car and I love it. Who would have thought gas would be under $2 ever again? But the kids are getting older, no longer need the big rig and now I don't even think twice about paying 50k or more on my Model3. I will wait but that MS looks better every day I am surprised anyone would buy ANY of the other EV's with the Model 3 on the way.

 

[EinSV]

May numbers are now in:



May sales in general were down, but SUV's seemed to fare better. Those numbers can be seen in the Model X comparison sheet. Prius sales of the new model are down 21% in May from a year ago.

This is very interesting -- thanks for posting!

You may want to consider adding the Audi A4 and Mercedes C class to the chart since they are in roughly the same price range as the Model 3.

 

[HanSolo]

May numbers are now in:



May sales in general were down, but SUV's seemed to fare better. Those numbers can be seen in the Model X comparison sheet. Prius sales of the new model are down 21% in May from a year ago.

Probably because the new Prius is so damn ugly. Just when you could not think a car could look even more outrageous, Toyota out does themselves to cater to the small crowd who wants everyone to know how environmentally conscious they are. Model 3 owners will be people who are mostly environmentally conscious, but also take pride in how their car looks and thus represents them.

 

[ZBB]

Probably because the new Prius is so damn ugly.

I was about to post about how the new Prius looks. Its really horrible -- and the rear doesn't even match the front (look at it from the side and it looks disjointed).

I still think its a bit too early to see if Model 3 orders are impacting current sales. With 2-3 years before most of the pre-orders will be delivered, people that need a car now will still get one now. So other factors are impacting sales.

Is it possible to summarize a bit more broadly -- perhaps by brand and base MSRP bucket -- for example for each brand, lump their cars as "MSRP >30k", "MSRP 30-45k", "MSRP 45k+" -- so BMW might only be in the 2 higher buckets and Honda in the lower 2. I think that would normalize for the shift from cars to CUVs for example and could show that just looking at car sales doesn't mean that the M3 is impacting them yet...

 

[FlatSix911]

Here are the current US EV sales for 2016. Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Interesting to note the strong sales for the new GM Volt and Ford Fusion, at number 2 & 3 on the list.
The Model S and X are still production constrained by batteries until the new Gigafactory comes on line.

 

[RubberToe]

Updated to include the April BMW 3-Series. Ouch...

 

[Chopr147]

Ouch is right! I am one of those customers myself. I was seriously looking into getting the 535i before the M3 reveal. So I put down my reservation and forgot all about the BMW. Sure it's a little smaller than the 5 series but i'm expecting so much better!

 

[alseTrick]

Ouch? Look at the Prius Plug-In. It's sales are practically 0%!

 

[NicoV]

Ouch? Look at the Prius Plug-In. It's sales are practically 0%!

That was the car I thought it would be the next car after my 2010 Prius. Untill I started to look at Tesla 3 years ago. Happy owner of a Model S since march. Most likely my wife and I will never buy anything else than a Tesla again.

 

[Jayc]

That was the car I thought it would be the next car after my 2010 Prius. Untill I started to look at Tesla 3 years ago. Happy owner of a Model S since march. Most likely my wife and I will never buy anything else than a Tesla again.

Yes this is what happens when companies become so big that they start getting disconnected with their customers and especially their fan base. There were warnings in Toyota forums that especially the styling direction they were heading towards was incorrect but they seem to be increasingly dependent upon incorrect marketing research that is fundamentally flawed. One thing I have to commend though is they have got reliability and production quality spot on that hardly anything goes wrong and in my case zero issues in 7 years.

 

[NicoV]

. There were warnings in Toyota forums that especially the styling direction they were heading towards was incorrect but they seem to be increasingly dependent upon incorrect marketing research that is fundamentally flawed. One thing I have to commend though is they have got reliability and production quality spot on that hardly anything goes wrong and in my case zero issues in 7 years.

I actually waited untill the next gen Prius was offically announced to finalize the Model S buying decision. I couldn't believe they went with the ugly Mirai styling (it seems they introduce all of their new models with this styling). My main concern with the Model S was that it might be less reliable than my Prius. So far, 0 problems. Waiting patiently to configure my wife's Model 3. (Actually not so patiently, my wife informed me how much she hates going to that stinking gas station to fill up the Prius, and btw, the Prius seems to be broken now because nothing happens when she presses to gas pedal).

 

[ZsoZso]

If you are not in the market for a luxury car then why are you buying an M3? I have a bridge to sell you if you think you are getting the M3 for $35k.

And people in the luxury car market probably don't give a crap about the environment and gas prices don't matter either.

I'm in similar situation to CyberKnife: not in the market for luxury vehicles. I would sooner consider buying your bridge, then buying a Mercedes / BMW / Audi. An yet I have bought a Model S in 2014 and put down reservation for the Model 3 on March.31st. I also own a tiny weird-mobile EV you can see on my avatar and will probably lease a Chevy Bolt until my Model 3 arrives. Price and luxury are two different properties and one does not imply the other.

 

[llngoc]

If you are not in the market for a luxury car then why are you buying an M3? I have a bridge to sell you if you think you are getting the M3 for $35k.

And people in the luxury car market probably don't give a crap about the environment and gas prices don't matter either.

I don't think the statement is true. There is the same proportion of people in all segments of the car market who cares a lot about the environment. (May be not the gas price, but buying hybrids or PEVs for gas price is likely be always the wrong reason IMHO)

And as Elon Musk said before, you should not be buying a Tesla because it is an EV. The only reason to get a Tesla because it is one of the best cars out there. And I believe the Model 3 will be one of the best sub-50k entry luxury car out there. If I can get a Model 3 with ludicrous mode for under 50k, it will definitely hurt the BMW M3, AMG C63, Audi RS4 markets. And a base Model 3 at $40k will definitely gives BMW 3, MBZ C class and Audi A4 a big headache.

 

[llngoc]

That was the car I thought it would be the next car after my 2010 Prius. Untill I started to look at Tesla 3 years ago. Happy owner of a Model S since march. Most likely my wife and I will never buy anything else than a Tesla again.

Same exact words from my wife: "I will never drive anything other than a Tesla." And she is as excited about our incoming Model X and the Model 3 reveal as getting a new handbag. That says a lot...

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Ouch? Look at the Prius Plug-In. It's sales are practically 0%!

Yup, Toyota stopped pip production in May of last year.

Toyota Halts Production of Prius Plug-in Hybrid Until Late 2016

They had some pretty good deals in May of 2014 when my wife and I got our plug-in Advanced.

 

[RubberToe]

Yup, Toyota stopped pip production in May of last year.

Toyota Halts Production of Prius Plug-in Hybrid Until Late 2016

They had some pretty good deals in May of 2014 when my wife and I got our plug-in Advanced.

The next generation plug in Prius is called the Prius Prime. Rolling out later this year, price has yet to be announced. That's why I still have it in the table. If you head over to the priuschat forum, one of the more active threads is called something like "Is the Prius Prime dead on arrival"? Lots of discussion of the Model 3 in that thread. Lots of Prius faithful still looking forward to the new PiP too. But many, rightfully so, scratch their heads about Toyota selling a car with only 31 miles electric range.

RT

 

[182RG]

Updated to include the April BMW 3-Series. Ouch...

You're still missing the C series MB, Audi A4, BMW 4 series, Cadillac ATS, Volvo S60/S80

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

The next generation plug in Prius is called the Prius Prime. Rolling out later this year, price has yet to be announced. That's why I still have it in the table. If you head over to the priuschat forum, one of the more active threads is called something like "Is the Prius Prime dead on arrival"? Lots of discussion of the Model 3 in that thread. Lots of Prius faithful still looking forward to the new PiP too. But many, rightfully so, scratch their heads about Toyota selling a car with only 31 miles electric range.

RT

I don't see anything wrong with including a car that isn't being produced, but using the same reasoning you could include Model 3 sales at 0 per month up until launch.

In terms of the Prime, 31 miles of EV range isn't too bad, but having to drop a seat to make sure the chassis is rated for that much weight is annoying IMO. I was hoping Toyota could beef up the new platform (TNGA) and maybe make the next gen plug-in a little bigger, ala the Prius V. I guess the gen 3 will continue to be the only 5-seat ~50mpg mid-size PHEV hatchback around for a few more years.

Granted, if Tesla can deliver with the 3, both in terms of specs and reliability, they'll leap-frog Toyota and everyone else, but whether they can do that remains to be seen. In certain situations, I can see why someone would be reluctant to go with a 3. It's a shame Toyota blew off EVs after they had come so far, but also an opportunity for Tesla.

 

[RubberToe]

Added 6 additional cars based on input provided above, they are in rows 2-7. The Mercedes C-Class is very appropriate, it is the highest selling Mercedes. The Audi A4 and BMW 4 Series are the second best sellers of Audi and BMW. Just FYI for those interested: on the goodcarbadcar website, you can download a spreadsheet of the monthly sales that has everything in it. Almost 500 lines per month. Very good source of info for between $3 and $5.

9 of 11 cars that have sold over 14,000 total vehicles in 2016 have sales down YOY. Not sure why BMW sales are down so much.

 

[FlatSix911]

Excellent data ... it appears that the near-luxury car market is depressed so far this year.
The decrease may be due to the Model 3 introduction that targets this market share

Added 6 additional cars based on input provided above, they are in rows 2-7. The Mercedes C-Class is very appropriate, it is the highest selling Mercedes. The Audi A4 and BMW 4 Series are the second best sellers of Audi and BMW. Just FYI for those interested: on the goodcarbadcar website, you can download a spreadsheet of the monthly sales that has everything in it. Almost 500 lines per month. Very good source of info for between $3 and $5.

9 of 11 cars that have sold over 14,000 total vehicles in 2016 have sales down YOY. Not sure why BMW sales are down so much.