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Model 3 set to dominate it's category as early as next month

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It will be an interesting decade that's for sure.
Sedans have been in the decline, and several established models are getting axed.
The Model S and Model 3 are bucking the trend. They are outselling the X, and their sales are ramping up nicely. This is the exact opposite of what people are buying today.

People are ditching sedans and buying SUV/CUV vehicles to replace them. And the big sellers aren't the classic Big SUV Americans used to favor. They are mostly midsized 5 seaters. Basically a sedan with no trunk that looks like a Picasso somebody puked on.

There were 55 different SUVs that outsold the Model 3 in March, but only 42 sedans. The wimpy Nissan Rogue sold over 42,000 5-seaters in March to lead the pack of non-pickup sales. That's more than Tesla's entire 2018 output by a good margin. And the Rogue is ugly, made by a company with a poor reputation for quality, has poor performance, and mediocre fuel economy. It's a close drag race between the Rogue and a Prius, it's that slow. But the Rogue is about $35k nicely outfitted, and can rise to $39k, which is about where a Model 3LR is at $50k - $10,450 = $39,550 California Price.

So the Rogue is not selling based on it being sexy, rugged, sporty, well-built, cheap, roomy, or economical. It sells not because of it attributes, but in spite of its attributes.

And it's slaughtering ALL the sedans by a wide margin, even the much better built Camry which is priced about the same, but is much faster, more economical, more sporty, and looks better. Not that beating a Camry in those metrics is anything to put on your resume. That's how bad a Rogue is.

There is a reason the Rogue sells. It's the New Appliance. Roomier than a sedan at the same price. It's that simple.

Will a Tesla ever be an Appliance? Disagree or not, that is exactly where the sales sit. The F150, the Rogue, the Camry. All Appliances, all big sellers.

Appliances should definitely be electric. Watching that old Nissan Leaf commercial with the gas powered toothbrush taught me that...

RT
 
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Yep. I do think their estimated sales numbers are high, even their low end estimate. They may produce 8K as I had estimated, but it's unlikely they will sell 8000 in April. That would imply selling the 2000+ in route from March, and delivering to final owners over half of April production, which I think is optimistic given transport times, delivery schedules etc.
We shall see soon enough but anybody thinking Model 3 will NOT lead this segment in sales within the next couple of months is missing the boat.
 
Yep. I do think their estimated sales numbers are high, even their low end estimate. They may produce 8K as I had estimated, but it's unlikely they will sell 8000 in April. That would imply selling the 2000+ in route from March, and delivering to final owners over half of April production, which I think is optimistic given transport times, delivery schedules etc.
We shall see soon enough but anybody thinking Model 3 will NOT lead this segment in sales within the next couple of months is missing the boat.

Based on current production, I think the 8-10k is reasonable except for two issues: (a) the shutdown last week will impact end of month deliveries; and (b) Tesla cares about quarterly sales and not monthly sales so they always try to get in as many sales before quarter-end which will in turn have "in transit" vehicles lower at quarter-end than other month-ends.
 
If they deliver 7,500 Model 3s in April they’ll have the best selling car in the segment. That number seems really plausible to me.
10k in May also seems highly likely. That will probably be the first month that Model 3 outsells all other EVs combined.

Perhaps July or August will be the first month that Tesla outsells all other cars in its segment(s) combined.
 
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If they deliver 7,500 Model 3s in April they’ll have the best selling car in the segment. That number seems really plausible to me.
How is that possible? That Anton guy on Seeking Alpha told us that Bolt trounced M3 10:1 or (some such crazy ratio) several months in a row last year. If there is an email or some other way to contact that author, we can find out what is the story now.
 
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You wish it was 10:1, the ratio was 28:1 (August 2017) :)
Wow thats real bad. With that much of a lead last year, imagine where Bolt will be this year. M3 has no chance. Anton will know.

But he has moved onto something else, like how Tesla can only make 6000 per week if they run 3 shifts and cannot do that in 2 shifts.. (as if Tesla promised they will do it in 2 shifts)
 
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Well, Since Tesla stopped reporting monthly sales numbers I have not updated this thread because I have no real data.
That said, according to Tesla last night they are the market leader already. By July they will be crushing several legacy automakers combined. The BMW 3 series looks to be the most impacted, as most of us thought, since that was Tesla's stated target.
tesla-model-3-market-share-hero.jpg
 
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If Tesla has the same success in Europe they just might push BMW into BK.
Not bad, for a start. I'd love to see Tesla place a new Gigafactory at the nexus of a few key Euro countries (including Germany) so that the national employment political football argument is blunted.

I wonder if these legacy companies have enough money reserves to last until they can come out with competitive products at scale. That is probably a 5 year timeline.
 
They will struggle for sure. Think about the process of mothballing all of that ICE related equipment while having to expend huge amounts of capital to build battery factories and electric motor plants. They will also have to lay off around half of their existing workforce. Not good times at BMW and Mercedes for sure. I think Porsche gets it and has resources (high margins and profit) to transition. The others will ask for government bailouts no doubt.
 
If Tesla has the same success in Europe they just might push BMW into BK.
Not bad, for a start.

I wonder if these legacy companies have enough money reserves to last until they can come out with competitive products at scale. That is probably a 5 year timeline.

BMW is selling CUV/SUVs now. The X3 (they sell 6 different groups, X1 thru X6) sold over 19,000 in the US in 2018. It is both quicker and faster than the Model 3 when ordered with the 6 cylinder engine, and roughly the same size. AWD is $55k just like the Model 3, and 0-60 in 4.6s.

Lets group them all together though. BMW sold about 40k CUV/SUVs in 2018 in the US.

Will BMW go bankrupt? It depends if you think sales have anything to do with financials. New Paradigm Thinking says money is not necessary to run a successful car company. Even going by the worst way to evaluate a corporation in 2018, Casino Market Valuation (valuation that ignores profits and assets), BMW is over 50% larger when you count paper dolls, but 5 times larger in the US alone when counting cars. Tesla is 27th in the US, recently edging out Porsche for 2018 as of last month.

I'm not a EU fanboy, especially not BMW, but thinking that current Tesla production numbers are earth shattering and causing financial collapse of other automakers is premature. It's still a sliver of the market, and BMW is a more global company than Tesla. And the world moved to CUV/SUVs a decade ago.
 
It's not that Tesla alone will cause these issues, but it's a large part of it. Tesla has proven that EVs are superior to ICE cars in almost every aspect, except long distance travel. So we are in a major transition from ICE to EV, by every automaker on the planet.
So for the legacy guys it's a bit like a Kodak moment. Kodak actually invented digital photography but were not able to survive the transition as the digital products simply evaporated their legacy film product market. Kodak found itself with lots of assets that became worthless very quickly. That said, BMW brought about 10 billion to the bottom line last year so they do have resources if they choose to spend them wisely.
Let's see, battery factory (4 billion) new robots for general assembly (1 billion), new motor plant (1 billion) and product R&D 3-4 billion.
They could do it. I don't see them moving that aggressively though. They also have to pay out dividends so they don't get to keep that profit. And by the time they have something decent put together, Tesla will be selling their own CUV (Model Y). I would expect the market share for that vehicle to track similar to the Model 3. With BMW seeing the highest loss of market share.
 
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If Tesla has the same success in Europe they just might push BMW into BK.
Not bad, for a start. I'd love to see Tesla place a new Gigafactory at the nexus of a few key Euro countries (including Germany) so that the national employment political football argument is blunted.

I wonder if these legacy companies have enough money reserves to last until they can come out with competitive products at scale. That is probably a 5 year timeline.

So killing the competition is good? Why exactly? Competition benefits all of us.

BMW sells 2.5 million vehicles globally every year and services virtually every market. Keep in mind that this is with BMW making a conscious decision not to produce certain products like light trucks (pickups, panel vans, etc.) and instead focusing most of their business on making sedans, hatchbacks and crossovers.

Tesla putting a dent in BMWs business, of that I have no doubt. Tesla putting BMW into bankruptcy, I highly doubt it.

For the chart above it's also worth noting that the BMW F30 is now in it's sixth year of production and is due for a refresh around this time next year... this is typically where sales start to flag for any premium auto maker... Audi/Merc go through this same cycle when their models begin to get stale.
 
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You are comparing a production constrained ultra-high end product to a mass market product that is on a regular refresh cycle.

My numbers could be off but I believe BMW sells more 3 series sedans every year in California alone than total Tesla global production of S/X.

Apples and oranges.

Tesla will need much more production capability and will also need delivery of lower priced offerings to go after BMW/Merc/Audi/VW/Fiat in Europe where the typical Audi or BMW has cloth upholstery and a 1.3 liter diesel motor.

Also, as has been seen in comments from our German forum members, the Germans will not be won over by Tesla solely because it's electric. They will want a level of fit/finish and creature comforts that rivals that of their domestic brands. Maybe Tesla will get there, not sure right now.
 
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My numbers could be off but I believe BMW sells more 3 series sedans every year in California alone than total Tesla global production of S/X.

Apples and oranges.

What? You are the one comparing Tesla S and X sales to BMW 3 series dude.
For the record, BMW sold 12,918 7 Series in the US last year. Tesla sold 27,060 Model S
BMW sold 59,000 3 series in the US last year. Tesla will sell more than double that number of Model 3s this year.
 
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That said, BMW brought about 10 billion to the bottom line last year so they do have resources if they choose to spend them wisely.
Let's see, battery factory (4 billion) new robots for general assembly (1 billion), new motor plant (1 billion) and product R&D 3-4 billion.
Zero for non EV R&D ?
And 2018 is the year that Tesla puts a huge dent in their profits, and even more going forward.

**So** tempting to short the German legacy companies.
 
What? You are the one comparing Tesla S and X sales to BMW 3 series dude.
For the record, BMW sold 12,918 7 Series in the US last year. Tesla sold 27,060 Model S
BMW sold 59,000 3 series in the US last year. Tesla will sell more than double that number of Model 3s this year.

What?

I pointed out that BMW sales of the 3 series would be flagging regardless of Model 3 pressure because the model is approaching end of life and is due for a refresh. This happens to BMW every 6 years when a model is being sunsetted, just like it happens to Audi with the A4 and Mercedes with the C class.

You countered with a graph showing increased demand year on year for the completely different Tesla Model S which was production constrained during the entire time frame captured by your graph.

APPLES AND ORANGES

And you brought model S/X into this discussion before I ever mentioned it.

Tesla will put pressure on the BMW 3 series with their Model 3 but they sure as hell aren't going bankrupt because of it. Tesla won't even enter the European market until sometime next year, by which time BMW has their new 3 series G20 sedan released along with probably some teasers on the plug in version that is supposed to be available by late 2020 including a fully EV version that is supposed to have a 435 mile range.