Model 3 set to dominate it's category as early as next month

[ℬête Noire]

You mean 622, not 611.

Yes, thank you.

And the 811 has been postponed, yes but we`ll see how that pans out.

Meanwhile a year's worth of shipping laboratory confirmed 5% Co batteries out of Sparks.

So with all due respect, you`re basing your optimism about Tesla`s domination here on very thin material

As opposed to basing it on what VW supposedly claimed about what they'll try to do with some battery? LOL

Go take a test drive of a Bolt Premier. Then a Model 3. Don't even drive it, just sit in it. Use the options, mess around with it, then drive modestly down the road in the Model 3 (to simulate you're in a SR + PUP that'll have less drastically higher acceleration than the Bolt....or hopefully the Performance cars will come with a simulate the lesser vehicle mode when they hit the showrooms).

Now grasp that the Bolt Premier is the one with the higher list price. That's "a 2x4 to your face" thickness of material.

Nobody is putting together an EV like Tesla yet at this sort of value, nobody. It's not all the batteries (no small part is the tech of the system attached to the batteries), but you really don't think batteries are part of this?

 

[Laurent]

[start spelling police]
“it’s” stands for “it is” or “it has”. Either way, “Model 3 set to dominate it’s category” doesn’t make sense.
I think you meant to write “Model 3 set to dominate its category”.
[end spelling police]

 

[Swampgator]

[start spelling police]
“it’s” stands for “it is” or “it has”. Either way, “Model 3 set to dominate it’s category” doesn’t make sense.
I think you meant to write “Model 3 set to dominate its category”.
[end spelling police]

There is always one in every crowd!

 

[jbcarioca]

[start spelling police]
“it’s” stands for “it is” or “it has”. Either way, “Model 3 set to dominate it’s category” doesn’t make sense.
I think you meant to write “Model 3 set to dominate its category”.
[end spelling police]

Actually, Laurent, you should have said 'punctuation' rather than 'spelling'. Otherwise it is barely possible that the category referred to is now possessed by the Model 3 rather than all those poor vanquished competitors, so maybe that apostrophe is not quite so inaccurate after all.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

As opposed to basing it on what VW supposedly claimed about what they'll try to do with some battery? LOL

You should probably read that paragraph again. Rephrased it basically means we`re all John Snow, we know nothing.

Nobody is putting together an EV like Tesla yet at this sort of value, nobody. It's not all the batteries (no small part is the tech of the system attached to the batteries), but you really don't think batteries are part of this?

I think the biggest part is that which I mentioned earlier already. Tesla is the only one going full throttle economy of scales for EVs. Smaller productions will never be able to keep up with the bang-for-buck ratio of bigger series.
As long as the other manufacturers don´t do their own ramp ups they`ll neither be able to make any money on EVs nor will they be able to compete with Tesla`s price offerings without going in the reds.

Basically everyone simply waited for the EV market to appear because no one wanted to take the initial investment onto themselves while Tesla ...and the Dieselgate...basically jumpstarted the development and now the old guys have to play catch up with Tesla`s production facilities.
However, manufacturers like VW/BMW/MERC etc will have no problems with the necessary investments. I can`t say if it will be the same for crapfests like Fiat.....

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla has been shipping the step past that for over a year and is now producing in quality of anything that's second only to BYD.

Am I reading right -- you think BYD has the highest quality chemistry on the market ?
Or was quality supposed to be quantity ?

 

[ℬête Noire]

Am I reading right -- you think BYD has the highest quality chemistry on the market ?
Or was quality supposed to be quantity ?

Yes, volume. BYD distant world in the quality of those batteries, different end of the market. Which is what makes it so stark. Yes, I should have been more explicit about that.

 

[SageBrush]

There is always one in every crowd!

An apostrophe ?

 

[Brando]

[start spelling police]
“it’s” stands for “it is” or “it has”. Either way, “Model 3 set to dominate it’s category” doesn’t make sense.
I think you meant to write “Model 3 set to dominate its category”.
[end spelling police]

correct - here is a little more detail:
First of all, it is always singular. Second, its without an apostrophe is the possessive form. The word it's is a contraction for it is or it has.

 

[Brando]

Volkswagen to upgrade manufacturing to 160 e-Golf daily - electrive.com
160x5 = 800/week 160x7=1140/week

Model 3
5,000/week and goal is to get to 10,000/week

This is VW trying to be a "Tesla Killer" ? Well, they could offer 10 more models of BEV - like the i3, right?
10 models of BEV or one really good BEV - which makes more money? care to guess?

 

[Brando]

Top 20 electric cars (in terms of sales) across most of Europe
Europe Electric Car Sales Up 37% In June — #CleanTechnica Report | CleanTechnica

no comment, read for yourself

 

[Swampgator]

Volkswagen to upgrade manufacturing to 160 e-Golf daily - electrive.com
160x5 = 800/week 160x7=1140/week

Model 3
5,000/week and goal is to get to 10,000/week

This is VW trying to be a "Tesla Killer" ? Well, they could offer 10 more models of BEV - like the i3, right?
10 models of BEV or one really good BEV - which makes more money? care to guess?

See the problem for VW (and other legacy OEMs) is if they make an e-golf that is better than the ICE golf for the same money, they won't sell very many ICE Golfs. They simply steal sales from themselves plus have to spend a crap ton on R&D, battery plants, etc.

 

[SageBrush]

See the problem for VW (and other legacy OEMs) is if they make an e-golf that is better than the ICE golf for the same money, they won't sell very many ICE Golfs. They simply steal sales from themselves plus have to spend a crap ton on R&D, battery plants, etc.

Or perhaps they retain a customer. Standing still is not a good strategy in the highly competitive auto landscape.

 

[ohmman]

mod note: 6 posts moved to snippiness.

 

[Electroman]

With only the more expensive long range battery available, no leases, no test drives and word of mouth just getting started, we ain’t seen nothing yet.

Oh, I don't disagree. But until we reach that steady state, and after the $7.5k fed credit is gone, look at how things are and then declare victory. It is too soon.

Lets not do an Anton.

 

[EinSV]

Oh, I don't disagree. But until we reach that steady state, and after the $7.5k fed credit is gone, look at how things are and then declare victory. It is too soon.

Um, thanks but no thanks.

IMO it has been obvious since Tesla racked up 400,000+ reservations that Tesla would dominate the entire category, and now that the numbers show that Tesla is selling more cars in the US than the other cars in its class combined I see no reason to put my head in the sand and ignore it.

It is also obvious to me that Tesla will sell even more Model 3s in the US in the next few months as production continues to ramp and that sales will grow even more once Tesla starts to deliver the less expensive standard battery version.

If you aren’t comfortable saying so yet, that’s fine. I am.

Once the competition comes out with compelling, high volume EVs in this class in about 4-5 years we can revisit the question.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Or perhaps they retain a customer. Standing still is not a good strategy in the highly competitive auto landscape.

That's the dream but cannibalizing billions in IP and production capacity hurts and is very scary. There is signs that there's some emerging realization and intent with GM, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Volvo, and VW. Others are getting it to varying degrees, too. But practically speaking they can't execute on mass building BEVs yet.

Fact is everyone else is behind in tech level of what they can mass produce, and probably even more importantly behind in production capacity, by years. Tesla broke ground on the Gigafactory 1 in May 2014. They had a "grand opening" 2 years later in 2016 but didn't really produce in meaningful volumes for another year. Only now are they hitting 20GWh/year levels of production, 4 years later. Outside of Tesla and China, there's nothing like that volume even truly in the pipeline yet (and China quality doesn't yet match the quantity, as you pointed out before). It's all at the "we should start now" phase.

That's why all the "the majors are going to crush Tesla at the EV game, because they know manufacturing so well" so deeply missed the point. You can't mass produce BEVs without first having economical mass production of the 'B'.

All they can do for some time is try to stopgap with the dead-end of various hybrids, which require less batteries per unit, and then make the leap eventually.

Maybe some of them that start going hard now will make it. Maybe they'll be able to somehow leapfrog ahead to mass production of solid state batteries, which are going to be critical to addressing some major niches that are still ICE domain. But there is going to be a great winnowing.

 

[Swampgator]

That's the dream but cannibalizing billions in IP and production capacity hurts and is very scary. There is signs that there's some emerging realization and intent with GM, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Volvo, and VW. Others are getting it, the others to varying degrees, too. But practically speaking they can't doing yet.

Fact is everyone else is behind in tech level of what they can mass produce, and probably even more importantly behind in production capacity, by years. Tesla broke ground on the Gigafactory 1 May 2014. They had a "grand opening" 2 years later in 2016 but didn't really produce in meaningful volumes for another year. Only now are they hitting 20GWh/year levels of production, 4 years later. Outside of Tesla and China, there's nothing like that volume even truly in the pipeline yet (and China quality doesn't yet match the quantity, as you pointed out before). It's all at the "we should start now" phase.

That's why all the "the majors are going to crush Tesla at the EV game, because they know manufacturing so well" so deeply missed the point. You can't mass produce BEVs without first having economical mass production of the 'B'.

All they can do for some time is try to stopgap with the dead-end of various hybrids, which require less batteries per unit, and then make the leap eventually.

Maybe some of them if they start going hard down will make it. Maybe they'll be able to somehow leapfrog ahead to mass production of solid batteries, which are going to be critical to addressing some major niches that are still ICE domain. But there is going to be a great winnowing.

winnowing...... Great word!

This is what most people miss. Model s was a "Hum?" moment for the legacy automakers. Model 3 is an "Oh crap!" moment. They have known it since 2016 but were just hoping somehow Tesla would fail to deliver in volume. Now they see they can do that and make a profit. It's literally game over for a lot of these legacy companies. Of course, they will appeal to their governments to save them (as GM has) and it may indeed happen. Still doesn't change the fundamentals. They are cooked.

 

[AustinPowers]

It is evident by the fact they only sell them in ZEV credit states in the US. If this model was profitable why would they not sell as many as they can across the US?

Volkswagen's Decision To Not Offer A Mass-Market e-Golf, Focus On 48V Hybrid Instead, Raises Questions | CleanTechnica

No it isn't. And no, they wouldn't. At least not as long as they are production constrained.

VW can't keep up with demand at the moment. So they sell as many e-Golfs as they can produce in relevant BEV countries closer to home, i.e. Europe (Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany in particular), before serving other markets.

Sound familiar?
*hums...tesla...model3...*

 

[AustinPowers]

Lets not forget that Porsche workers are agreeing to forgo raises to help finance the build out for the Taycan(sp?)

Makes it sound dramatic, doesn't it?

The reality is that Porsche workers agreed to temporarily waive 0.25% of their annual pay raise for the FY 2017 to 2025. But they will get their money back in annual installments (plus interest) from FY 2021 to 2030.
Only top management and certain "high earners" will have to waive 0.5% of their annual raise without getting it back. But if it guarantees their company's future, I think they will eventually consider it an investment well worth it. Especially considering that even with their "sacrifice" these "top brass" still earn bucketloads of money every year that most normal workers can only dream of.