Model 3 set to dominate it's category as early as next month

[rachelhikes]

I think it will be a minimum of 12 months before Tesla does that... if anything they've reduced paint choices because their paint shop is apparently a bottleneck right now.

I get that. But you don't have to have more paint colors available at the same time: you can introduce a new color to replace an old. For example, you could replace the blue with a green. Then the green with a yellow, etc.

(Just a suggestion. No big deal.)

 

[voip-ninja]

I get that. But you don't have to have more paint colors available at the same time: you can introduce a new color to replace an old. For example, you could replace the blue with a green. Then the green with a yellow, etc.

(Just a suggestion. No big deal.)

I actually think the current colors are not great, and two of the best ones (white and red) are crazy expensive. I would love to see Tesla liven things up with some new colors but it's probably just a low priority right now.

I'm not sure how other manufacturers do it, if they build a few cars to trial new colors or if they just use really accurate computer simulation to see what it will look like in conjunction with painting a few individual parts to get a better idea of what the car will look like.

I would love a "soft" blue on the Model 3 like the one BMW does on its M3. I'd also love a classier gray (instead of MSM which I find boring as hell).... the non metallic gray that Audi is using on their A7 right now is astounding and would look phenomenal on the Model 3.

 

[SageBrush]

Well, shucks. I do now!

Thanks!

I rearranged your data to show the size of the total pie as a bar; while the bar size without the Tesla contribution shows the pie size for the other car makers combined:

This is why I am not convinced that Tesla is harming these other car makers (yet.) Their pie is not shrinking.

 

[Pollux]

Thanks!

I rearranged your data to show the size of the total pie as a bar; while the bar size without the Tesla contribution shows the pie size for the other car makers combined:

View attachment 340377
This is why I am not convinced that Tesla is harming these other car makers (yet.) Their pie is not shrinking.

I really appreciate the re-visualization of the data. So easy now to see your point.

Thank you.

Alan

 

[Gavyne]

Well there's a market (luxury market), with people that can afford cars at a certain price range. When people are buying competitor's cars rather than yours, then it affects you. Like I pointed out in the previous page, the CEO of BMW NA admits Tesla's ramp up is putting pressure in this market.

“Tesla is now ramping up their volumes, and it’s putting pressure on that market segment,” Bernhard Kuhnt, chief executive officer of BMW North America, said in an interview Tuesday. “In that environment, I’m very, very pleased to say we were up.”

If Tesla isn't putting squeeze on them, they wouldn't have stated it. I would tend to listen to the CEO of BMW rather than a chart graph that really doesn't show the whole picture. The idea is the pie Tesla has eaten for the past quarter should've gone to one of these other luxury car makers.

 

[Zaxxon]

The idea is the pie Tesla has eaten for the past quarter should've gone to one of these other luxury car makers.

Yes, but also to other non-luxury carmakers. It's long been a trend that Tesla buyers often step up from a non-luxury brand. Lots of Leaf & Prius owners entering the Model 3 market, for example. Bottom line is most of the Model 3 sales came from somewhere--those people were largely going to buy something. Maybe they moved the purchase forward or back a year to get into a 3, but by and large most Model 3 sales are sales that would have gone to another manufacturer.

There's also a big piece of this that is not captured in either my nor @SageBrush's charts--that year-over-year it's been a disaster for these other marques. For example, I'll randomly pick a few--C-class July YoY -22%; 3-series Sept YoY -40%; Lexus IS Sept -9%. They're not universally that bad, but more often than not I'm seeing YoY trends that are terrible.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Thanks!

I rearranged your data to show the size of the total pie as a bar; while the bar size without the Tesla contribution shows the pie size for the other car makers combined:

View attachment 340377
This is why I am not convinced that Tesla is harming these other car makers (yet.) Their pie is not shrinking.

Not a big deal, but for future reference; I don't know what tool you're using but some graphing tools let you place the 0 line between categories, so you could have the Model 3 extend down and all the rest extend up.

That aside, just going month to month like that changes are often overwhelmed by normal seasonal variations. Sales tend to be slow through people's summer vacations, for example.

 

[dhanson865]

Thanks!

I rearranged your data to show the size of the total pie as a bar; while the bar size without the Tesla contribution shows the pie size for the other car makers combined:

View attachment 340377
This is why I am not convinced that Tesla is harming these other car makers (yet.) Their pie is not shrinking.

You'd have to make a similar chart for US sales by manufacturer, not just US Luxury sales to manufacturer to make the authoritative statement that "their pie is not shrinking".

Tesla could be shrinking the pie outside of Luxury sales. I haven't looked at those numbers to see if it's true or not, just wanted to mention that your statement needs more proof.

 

[SageBrush]

My chart is from Google Docs, but then I remembered that I am using a Mac and I can make the chart pretty

 

[StellarRat]

Bloomberg report out this morning. Model 3 IS dominating!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

My chart is from Google Docs, but then I remembered that I am using a Mac and I can make the chart pretty

View attachment 340390

July to Sept 2017 in comparison?
Premium market may have flattened overall.

 

[SageBrush]

Bloomberg report out this morning. Model 3 IS dominating!

Yup!

If Tesla increases Model 3 sales about 30% over the most recent rate, it takes over as #1 in USA passenger vehicles.

 

[brianman]

I can make the chart pretty

Debatable. Definitely harder to read though -- trendwise, I mean.

 

[wws]

A local perspective from ground zero of the EV revolution.

According to the California New Car Dealers Association, electric vehicle sales for 2018 make up 7.7% of all new vehicle sales in the San Francisco Bay area. Considering that the Model 3, by far the most important volume electric car, has been ramping up all that time, the percentage for August alone must be much, much higher: I would guess at least 15% of new car sales have been EV's, and those largely Model 3's. Maybe BMW, Mercedes, and Audi can stay afloat here on service revenue until their EV's arrive, but the ICE sales situation for those brands in this region looks dire to me, and I don't see how it can ever get better.

The Cadillac dealership on Stevens Creek Blvd closed a few months ago. It had been there for decades. OTOH, the Chevy dealer across the street is one of the largest volume dealers of Volt and Bolt in the country.

Seeing what it is like to have a lot of Model 3's around, I do have some advice for Tesla going forward: more paint and interior colors. Even if you can't do a lot of them at once, add new ones and retire old ones. The more Model 3's there are in an area, the more people will want to differentiate their cars from all the others. Color is highly effective and has no engineering cost. We are already seeing a growing aftermarket of personalization items, but cars coming out of the factory could really benefit from more variety. Might not matter in places where there are only a few Model 3's in town, but once you have several per block, which is where we're going, it's a different story.

Yes, sometimes it seems like there are more Teslas than Toyotas around. So in a way, I'm sort of happy that Tesla raised the price of the red to $2500. (After I bought mine of course. )

 

[StellarRat]

Seeing what it is like to have a lot of Model 3's around, I do have some advice for Tesla going forward: more paint and interior colors. Even if you can't do a lot of them at once, add new ones and retire old ones. The more Model 3's there are in an area, the more people will want to differentiate their cars from all the others. Color is highly effective and has no engineering cost. We are already seeing a growing aftermarket of personalization items, but cars coming out of the factory could really benefit from more variety. Might not matter in places where there are only a few Model 3's in town, but once you have several per block, which is where we're going, it's a different story.

While this sounds good; they still can't even paint the colors they do have at a consistently high quality level. I'm all for more colors AFTER Tesla masters the art of car painting.

 

[SageBrush]

Debatable. Definitely harder to read though -- trendwise, I mean.

For sure.

Treat it as failed self-deprecating humor.

 

[brianman]

For sure.

Treat it as failed self-deprecating humor.

Not failed at all. I was hopeful that you intended that but didn't want to be mean if not.

 

[Swampgator]

Thanks!

I rearranged your data to show the size of the total pie as a bar; while the bar size without the Tesla contribution shows the pie size for the other car makers combined:

View attachment 340377
This is why I am not convinced that Tesla is harming these other car makers (yet.) Their pie is not shrinking.

Sales always trend up from first ,onth of Q3 to the last month (sept)
What matters is YOY sales and BMW and Mercedes are getting murdered. Right now. BMW even admits that the only reason overal sales are up a paltry 1.3% YOY is because of one model (X3)
Again, when Tesla does the same thing with Model Y as Model 3, they are in HUGE trouble. And they do know it.

 

[Enadler]

Thanks!

I rearranged your data to show the size of the total pie as a bar; while the bar size without the Tesla contribution shows the pie size for the other car makers combined:

View attachment 340377
This is why I am not convinced that Tesla is harming these other car makers (yet.) Their pie is not shrinking.

This is a good visualization but you really need to look at YOY. There are big fluctuations by month within a quarter.

 

[SageBrush]

This is a good visualization but you really need to look at YOY. There are big fluctuations by month within a quarter.

Granted, but we are trying to discern a 'Tesla affect' on the sales of other carmakers. Since Model 3 has really only ramped up in the last couple of months, I think it reasonable (if of limited utility due to seasonal variation, as you say) to focus on these months.