Delivery dates have slipped to early 2019 for standard range Model 3.
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Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019
- Thread starter dm33
- Start date
NeverFollow
Active Member
Tesla Pushes Back Standard Model 3 Deliveries To Late 2018, Early 2019
My own reservation from April 7th, 2016.
This means $7500 rebate will definitely not be in place.
Looks like they're explicitly prioritizing higher priced versions over the standard range. I wonder if the standard range will ever really happen. AWD date moved ahead of standard range.
My SR date changed from Early 2018 to Late 2018. I'm done with the lies and BS. At thos point, I'm not sure they plan to sell more than a few SR cars, if at all. I'll be leasing a Leaf, instead. I hope someday Tesla will figure out how to make cars.
Did you reserve 1st day?
I don't think they plan to sell SR cars at all if they can sell higher priced versions. Early 2019 (for day 2 reservations) is just their latest estimate. Next year they can postpone it another year.
suwaneedad
Member
It would be good to cancel your deposit. If many thousands also do so, it may cause Tesla to rethink the priorities they announced today. That said, I suspect it would take many many many thousands of deposit cancellations for the path announced to be a worse economic decision for Tesla...target margin on the LRs is ~$13k (25% of ~$52k). So it would take more than 13 deposit cancellations per vehicle delivered for Tesla's decision to be a bad one, financially speaking (and measured in the short term...say 0-12 months).
youlikeadajuice
P 9130
They will eventually sell the SR model. However, it seems they will first try to tempt people will higher priced versions (such as releasing AWD before SR). I think they will also try to take advantage of people optioning up to take advantage of the fed tax credit, whereas they may have waited for the SR.
However, the uptick might not be as large as they hoped. The "$35,000" vehicle is actually $41k once you factor in the Destination and Doc Fee plus Enhanced Autopilot (I would find it very difficult to buy a Tesla without enabling Autopilot and expect very few to be sold without EAP). If you need to get the LR you're already at $50k, adding in the PUP it's at $55k (and I would be very surprised to see the AWD option cost less than $5k). All of these combos are quick a bit higher than the "$35,000" magical price point.
The bottom line they can't produce a cars. If they decided to move to SR tomorrow, owners & employees would get their SR cars first, as they should. I reserved day 1 and wouldn't get mine until realistically Q4.
They kinda said they are getting a surplus of new reservations based on good reviews, so if people who waited 2 years get replaced with new people who will only wait 1 year they might not even notice... it is upsetting, but I feel it has to do with poor planning all along and overpromising. Also, they said they will not have positive cash flow until they get to 5k/week, which is end of Q2, so they possibly prioritized higher margins for investors sake as well to calm their fears that Tesla will run out of cash.
Apparently, Elon tweeted that it will be less. So, you can count on $4.5k
Despite Elon maintaining production targets for Q1 and Q2, they must not think they'll make a meaningful dent in the reservation backlog. Sounds like they're focusing on margins.
Exponential production growth works both ways. At the bottom end of the curve, they're making so few that my day 7 reservation is essentially infinity on the backlog. By the time they eventually ramp up to 500,000 vehicles a year (if ever), they'll be able to work through the backlog within a few months.
There's no value in having a reservation now. It won't clear until the entire backlog is able to clear relatively quickly.
I've been waiting for the Model 3 since 2013. It was my plan to buy an interim car until the Model 3 showed up. It was working out fine, but now keeping my current car another year and having the Model 3 by default be $7500 more expensive, messes up my master plan.
My debate now is trying to maintain the current car that was never meant to be a long term hold or purchase/lease something for 2-3 years and see whats available in 2021.
I'm not willing to spend $60,000 on a Model 3. Tesla is informing me that they do not want my business. I wonder if Elon has been a billionaire a little too long. The original Tesla business model still isn't coming true.
Exponential production growth works both ways. At the bottom end of the curve, they're making so few that my day 7 reservation is essentially infinity on the backlog. By the time they eventually ramp up to 500,000 vehicles a year (if ever), they'll be able to work through the backlog within a few months.
There's no value in having a reservation now. It won't clear until the entire backlog is able to clear relatively quickly.
I've been waiting for the Model 3 since 2013. It was my plan to buy an interim car until the Model 3 showed up. It was working out fine, but now keeping my current car another year and having the Model 3 by default be $7500 more expensive, messes up my master plan.
My debate now is trying to maintain the current car that was never meant to be a long term hold or purchase/lease something for 2-3 years and see whats available in 2021.
I'm not willing to spend $60,000 on a Model 3. Tesla is informing me that they do not want my business. I wonder if Elon has been a billionaire a little too long. The original Tesla business model still isn't coming true.
Tesla stated in the shareholder letter released today that they would be prioritizing higher margin configurations. While unfortunate to those who want the standard range, it makes sense from a $ perspective.
Pkmmte
Le meow
We're slowly moving back into the original 2020 estimate...
suwaneedad
Member
I agree that as more owners back east see the 3 with their own eyes, more owners will be placing new deposits and hopping to the front of the line as a result. This is among the reasons why it is tough for anyone (including Tesla) to have an accurate sense of when current reservation holders will actually get their vehicles.
suwaneedad
Member
This is a really good point, assuming you meant that there's no point "making" a (new) reservation now. Your point is reinforced by Tesla's announcement today that they will not begin investing in capacity growth for the ramp from 5k to 10k/wk until the 5k level has been attained. That is very different from the Tesla norm to invest way way way ahead of the revenue arriving, and must have been made at the behest of the capital markets. I'm surprised by this, frankly, since from the outside looking in...Tesla has yet to show any difficulty raising equity or debt capital.
Elon originally quoted a $49,900 price for the Model S back on 3/26/2009. 5 minute mark
That didn't meaningfully happen.
Now we're 9 years later and his "mass market", "affordable" car is now minimum $49,000 but more likely $55-60,000.
The trend says they'll never make an affordable car. It is not converging.
That didn't meaningfully happen.
Now we're 9 years later and his "mass market", "affordable" car is now minimum $49,000 but more likely $55-60,000.
The trend says they'll never make an affordable car. It is not converging.
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The idea that cancelling your reservation will change their decision making is silly. If they can't sell the LR they will make SR. But Tesla is a business and if they can find buyers for 600k model 3 LR vehicles a year (factory capacity), then they should not make the SR version until a new factory is built. Sure this sucks for many long faithful supporters, but the plan is to build as many EVs as possible, as soon as feasible to achieve the stated goal of sustainable transport.
You can't argue the fact that higher margin vehicles will fund new factories and models faster - and that's the goal.
You can't argue the fact that higher margin vehicles will fund new factories and models faster - and that's the goal.
What's the big fuss? We've known for weeks that the ramp (5000 cars/wk target) has been pushed back 6 months from late Q4 2017 to late Q2 2018. So of course, the standard battery option would also get pushed back 6 months from "Early 2018" to "Mid 2018". This isn't Tesla being deceptive. It's just math (+6 months).
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