Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019

[TexasEV]

I don’t understand why people are canceling now. It you don’t want a version of the car that’s available when your turn comes up, you can cancel then. What’s the benefit in canceling earlier than that? You could change your mind, Tesla could change its mind, any number of things could happen between now and then. Keeping the reservation gives you options.

 

[flashflooder]

I don’t understand why people are canceling now. It you don’t want a version of the car that’s available when your turn comes up, you can cancel then. What’s the benefit in canceling earlier than that? You could change your mind, Tesla could change its mind, any number of things could happen between now and then. Keeping the reservation gives you options.

I think people are just disgusted, after waiting 2 years, at getting shoved to the back of the line (in the case of SR waiters) and denied most, it not all, of the tax credit benefit.
The way Tesla is doing this move stealthily (just shuffling estimates around, without announcing a clear strategy) is exactly the same way they handled Alacantra-gate, and IMO really gives a bad impression of the company.

 

[tebling]

I think people are just disgusted, after waiting 2 years, at getting shoved to the back of the line (in the case of SR waiters) and denied most, it not all, of the tax credit benefit.

With the recent evidence of Canadian orders being moved up (and therefore not contributing to the US 200k car threshold), it's probably still worth waiting to see if what you say about the tax credit ends up being true or not.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Elon didn't say they'd come up with other versions to cut in line in front of the $35k car.

“Our default plan as we have done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car, because we’ve got to pay back the investment of the tooling and everything, so it makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first. That’s what we did with the S and obviously again with the X.”

 

[TexasEV]

I think people are just disgusted, after waiting 2 years, at getting shoved to the back of the line (in the case of SR waiters) and denied most, it not all, of the tax credit benefit.

Yeah, shame on them for trying to not lose more money when the ramp up went slower than anticipated.

Tesla isn’t a charitable organization, but it does have a mission and needs to survive to accomplish that. Remember the unofficial motto of Catholic hospitals— no margin, no mission.

 

[206er]

My objective with the 3 was always a $35k Tesla for the price of a decently optioned Civic (with full federal tax credit). It's what I lined up for hours outside on a cold Seattle 3/31/2016 morning to make a deposit toward. My wife never really wanted the car but tolerated my enthusiasm for an "affordable" Tesla and was willing to give it a go. She's always wanted us to go the SUV route, but we can't afford an X. Our second kid will be here by summer, so we need a slightly larger car to replace our ILX before then, which I was planning on being the 3.

But other than the latest delay that pushed me to an estimated delivery of early 2019 for SR and AWD, here's another factor for me deciding to cancel - I got to experience a LR Model 3 a few weeks ago for a few hours - an experience I am super grateful for - and thought the car was really good, but not great. In my opinion, it just doesn't feel like it's worth $50k or more. Yeah it's a nice looking EV with an awesome glass roof and sound system, but the interior materials - from the leatherish seats, plastics, fake wood, piano center console, and even carpet/floor mats, came across as kind of underwhelming. My gut tells me that the LR RWD PUP should be the $35k car, and Tesla should find a way to beef up that baseline to increase their margins for higher priced versions (better interior materials, AWD, etc). This kinda made me wonder if something less than the LR RWD PUP is something I'd want to spend $35k on, and I ultimately decided that it wasn't.

 

[flashflooder]

Yeah, shame on them for trying to not lose more money when the ramp up went slower than anticipated.

Tesla isn’t a charitable organization, but it does have a mission and needs to survive to accomplish that. Remember the unofficial motto of Catholic hospitals— no margin, no mission.

Put your pitchfork down - I was simply answering the question.
I am not personally cancelling my reservation, and I understand Tesla needs to be profitable.

I'm a day 1 reservation and had "Early 2018" for my desired SR/PUP configuration. This move by Tesla is going to force me to make some decisions, but I don't begrudge them prioritizing profit.

I do, however, take issue with the secretive way they are going about it. People have loaned you money for 2 years on good faith, I personally think the least you can do is be clear about your plans.

 

[flashflooder]

With the recent evidence of Canadian orders being moved up (and therefore not contributing to the US 200k car threshold), it's probably still worth waiting to see if what you say about the tax credit ends up being true or not.

Starting to think there might be something to this theory, in which case my current "Late 2018" could plausibly qualify for the $7,500 credit. That's assuming the car is on time, AND they can somehow orchestrate this delivery deferral...

 

[ℬête Noire]

Starting to think there might be something to this theory, in which case my current "Late 2018" could plausibly qualify for the $7,500 credit. That's assuming the car is on time, AND they can somehow orchestrate this delivery deferral...

What I'm somewhat confused about the level of freaking out about the step down to $3750. Obviously less than optimal but the alternatives I've seen people talking about are things like a new SUV, which are likely eat most that of in a year in fuel, almost certainly in 2 years. *shrug*

I do get that timing can be an issue. Life happens and you don't think you'll be able to hold out the year, from a logistical stand point. Or you'd rather have the certainty of when you'll see the vehicle. Or maybe you've got some doubts about how much you'll like the vehicle.

I can even buy some concern that there will be so many people that want the LR, and Tesla so in need of the cash flow, that the SR will slide much further into the future. Maybe?

It's the part about the $7500-or-nothing that's got me scratching my head. The talk as though the extra 6 months of $3750 past that, to say nothing of another 6 months at $1875, simply doesn't exist.

 

[flashflooder]

What I'm somewhat confused about is freaking out about the step down to $3750. Obviously less than optimal but the alternatives I've seen people talking about are things like a new SUV, which are likely eat most that of in a year in fuel, almost certainly in 2 years. *shrug*

Yeah, honestly don't understand that either. For me, one of the options is taking delivery of my SR/PUP with the $3750 credit and being happy. Unfortunately, even with this scenario, I have to hope the car is on time and not pushed back another 3 months.

An other option is just to continue driving my 13-year old ICE for another 13 years and look at the EV market then. This would be massively disappointing because I've admired Tesla's cars since they started producing them, and have let myself get REALLY excited about the Model 3 in the last 2 years.

The final option is to YOLO it up and pay $9k for a battery upgrade I really don't need. I'm already giving this option way more consideration that I should be.

 

[metafor]

My objective with the 3 was always a $35k Tesla for the price of a decently optioned Civic (with full federal tax credit). It's what I lined up for hours outside on a cold Seattle 3/31/2016 morning to make a deposit toward. My wife never really wanted the car but tolerated my enthusiasm for an "affordable" Tesla and was willing to give it a go. She's always wanted us to go the SUV route, but we can't afford an X. Our second kid will be here by summer, so we need a slightly larger car to replace our ILX before then, which I was planning on being the 3.

But other than the latest delay that pushed me to an estimated delivery of early 2019 for SR and AWD, here's another factor for me deciding to cancel - I got to experience a LR Model 3 a few weeks ago for a few hours - an experience I am super grateful for - and thought the car was really good, but not great. In my opinion, it just doesn't feel like it's worth $50k or more. Yeah it's a nice looking EV with an awesome glass roof and sound system, but the interior materials - from the leatherish seats, plastics, fake wood, piano center console, and even carpet/floor mats, came across as kind of underwhelming. My gut tells me that the LR RWD PUP should be the $35k car, and Tesla should find a way to beef up that baseline to increase their margins for higher priced versions (better interior materials, AWD, etc). This kinda made me wonder if something less than the LR RWD PUP is something I'd want to spend $35k on, and I ultimately decided that it wasn't.

I'm sorry to hear that. But this is par-for-the-course for Tesla. The roadster, Model S, Model X all never felt like their price range from a "trim" perspective.

The Model S trim is comparable, IMO, to a high-optioned Civic. Except it ranges from $70-140k instead of $20-30k.

For me, that's expected. I'm the early adopter type and would've happily stuck with my Prius. It was the all-electric long range car that sold me.

 

[metafor]

Put your pitchfork down - I was simply answering the question.
I am not personally cancelling my reservation, and I understand Tesla needs to be profitable.

I'm a day 1 reservation and had "Early 2018" for my desired SR/PUP configuration. This move by Tesla is going to force me to make some decisions, but I don't begrudge them prioritizing profit.

I do, however, take issue with the secretive way they are going about it. People have loaned you money for 2 years on good faith, I personally think the least you can do is be clear about your plans.

I don't think Tesla knows their plans. It kinda changes day-by-day based on their production capability (and to a smaller degree, external forces such as interest rates; Tesla has a *lot* of debt).

What this looks like to me is that they've cracked the engineering to add a second motor. So they're moving that ahead in order to sell a more expensive car first (you can get AWD of both the SR and LR sooner than RWD SR).

It may change again if they ramp faster than expected in the future. It may change again if they ramp slower. It may change again if AWD wasn't as easy as they thought.

Tesla is more of a Kickstarter project than a giant manufacturing behemoth. Whatever it says is a "best guess we have now" type and shouldn't be taken as anything more than that.

 

[tebling]

What this looks like to me is that they've cracked the engineering to add a second motor. So they're moving that ahead in order to sell a more expensive car first (you can get AWD of both the SR and LR sooner than RWD SR).

As someone who wants SR + PUP + AWD, I'm really hoping the timing with respect to the tax credit ends up being tax credit = AWD (SR or LR), rather than tax credit = LR.

Of course, best case would be tax credit = any config, but that doesn't seem likely.

 

[flashflooder]

I don't think Tesla knows their plans. It kinda changes day-by-day based on their production capability (and to a smaller degree, external forces such as interest rates; Tesla has a *lot* of debt).

What this looks like to me is that they've cracked the engineering to add a second motor. So they're moving that ahead in order to sell a more expensive car first (you can get AWD of both the SR and LR sooner than RWD SR).

It may change again if they ramp faster than expected in the future. It may change again if they ramp slower. It may change again if AWD wasn't as easy as they thought.

Tesla is more of a Kickstarter project than a giant manufacturing behemoth. Whatever it says is a "best guess we have now" type and shouldn't be taken as anything more than that.

Agree with what you're saying, my only complaint is why can't they come out and say, plainly, that they're planning on throwing AWD into the mix soon, with SR coming at a later date? We're all left to extrapolate and guess when we're going to get our car.

I think the reason they won't come out and say it, is for fear of alienating all the SR hopefuls who lined up or reserved the car sight unseen. And that just feels wrong to me. If you have to make a difficult business decision, own it instead of being cagey about it (just like in the Alcantara debacle).

 

[David L]

While it seems disingenuous that Tesla is delaying SR, it's in all of our best interests that Tesla survives and becomes profitable as a company ASAP. It's unfortunate that they have to prioritize LR and D to make it happen, but I'd rather they do that than fail. Their success will encourage other automakers to hasten the transition to EVs. Their success will reduce the profitability of big oil and gas and help reduce the political clout of big oil and gas. When we look back several decades later at Tesla and see that this start-up helped kick-start the transformation of the energy sector, the delay of SR will just be a blip.

I was planning to buy SR + PUP, but I'll probably buy LR + PUP instead. Ideal? No. Life changing and tragic? No. Life is full of unexpected turns and I don't believe this one is worth getting worked up about.

 

[azred]

My objective with the 3 was always a $35k Tesla for the price of a decently optioned Civic (with full federal tax credit). It's what I lined up for hours outside on a cold Seattle 3/31/2016 morning to make a deposit toward. My wife never really wanted the car but tolerated my enthusiasm for an "affordable" Tesla and was willing to give it a go. She's always wanted us to go the SUV route, but we can't afford an X. Our second kid will be here by summer, so we need a slightly larger car to replace our ILX before then, which I was planning on being the 3.

But other than the latest delay that pushed me to an estimated delivery of early 2019 for SR and AWD, here's another factor for me deciding to cancel - I got to experience a LR Model 3 a few weeks ago for a few hours - an experience I am super grateful for - and thought the car was really good, but not great. In my opinion, it just doesn't feel like it's worth $50k or more. Yeah it's a nice looking EV with an awesome glass roof and sound system, but the interior materials - from the leatherish seats, plastics, fake wood, piano center console, and even carpet/floor mats, came across as kind of underwhelming. My gut tells me that the LR RWD PUP should be the $35k car, and Tesla should find a way to beef up that baseline to increase their margins for higher priced versions (better interior materials, AWD, etc). This kinda made me wonder if something less than the LR RWD PUP is something I'd want to spend $35k on, and I ultimately decided that it wasn't.

That's a long goodbye.

 

[mtndrew1]

Keep in mind that when we all stood in line and lent Elon $1,000 interest free the specs were “215 miles of range, $35k base.”

I expected them to launch with the high margin stuff as they always have but took that to mean $35k + PUP. I can swing that price point though it’s more than I’ve spent on a car in the past. After renting a Model 3 last weekend there was no question that it was worth stretching a bit to get such a dynamic car for ~$40k.

The extra $9k long range car didn’t exist publicly until July of 2017. It was a “one more thing” kind of deal.

Had Tesla stated on 3/31/16 that the only car available for 18 months after launch would cost a minimum of $50,000 I wouldn’t have taken a day off of work to stand in line and would have had an extra grand in the bank.

I expected delays, I expected mandatory upcharges for extra features at launch, I expected some Tesla shenanigans similar to past performance.

What actually transpired feels a bit like a bait and switch. I’m going car shopping this weekend and I’ll revisit Tesla in three years. So crestfallen.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Keep in mind that when we all stood in line and lent Elon $1,000 interest free the specs were “215 miles of range, $35k base.”

I expected them to launch with the high margin stuff as they always have but took that to mean $35k + PUP. I can swing that price point though it’s more than I’ve spent on a car in the past. After renting a Model 3 last weekend there was no question that it was worth stretching a bit to get such a dynamic car for ~$40k.

The extra $9k long range car didn’t exist publicly until July of 2017. It was a “one more thing” kind of deal.

Had Tesla stated on 3/31/16 that the only car available for 18 months after launch would cost a minimum of $50,000 I wouldn’t have taken a day off of work to stand in line and would have had an extra grand in the bank.

I expected delays, I expected mandatory upcharges for extra features at launch, I expected some Tesla shenanigans similar to past performance.

What actually transpired feels a bit like a bait and switch. I’m going car shopping this weekend and I’ll revisit Tesla in three years. So crestfallen.

What my email says:

"Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. North American deliveries will be first, followed by Europe, Asia and Pacific countries then countries with right-hand drive configurations. Those who own Model S or Model X cars will be offered priority production slots as a special thanks for supporting the Tesla mission."

Frankly it's impressive as hell that they actually hit that mark. Especially after the pre-sales racked up so fast they decided to drastically increase their project scope....to supply promised cars ASAP.

It doesn't say anything there about what options were happening when. I'm pretty sure they didn't give the 215mi range, either. My recollection is that it was >200mi, that detail didn't get flesh out until late spring last year. Maybe your memory is a bit fuzzy around this whole thing?

If or when they crap-can the whole $35K base option, then I'll be right there with you. Until then.....

 

[commasign]

All this "I waited in line for the $27,500 (after tax credit) Tesla" angst reminds me of the Oprah KFC free chicken debacle of 2009...

Lessons Learned From The Great Free-Chicken Fiasco Of 2009

And yes, a few weeks later KFC did mail out rainchecks as promised. Everyone eventually got their free chicken!

KFC: Rain checks for Oprah coupon coming next week – Orange County Register

 

[mtndrew1]

What my email says:

"Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. North American deliveries will be first, followed by Europe, Asia and Pacific countries then countries with right-hand drive configurations. Those who own Model S or Model X cars will be offered priority production slots as a special thanks for supporting the Tesla mission."

Frankly it's impressive as hell that they actually hit that mark. Especially after the pre-sales racked up so fast they decided to drastically increase their project scope....to supply promised cars ASAP.

It doesn't say anything there about what options were happening when. I'm pretty sure they didn't give the 215mi range, either. My recollection is that it was >200mi, that detail didn't get flesh out until late spring last year. Maybe your memory is a bit fuzzy around this whole thing?

If or when they crap-can the whole $35K base option, then I'll be right there with you. Until then.....

The car that they took orders for on stage said “215 miles of range, $35k base.” There was zero mention of a long range model.

I am also impressed that they effectively hit their production dates as promised. There’s no question in my mind that the Model 3 is launching infinitely smoother than the S or X did and that it will be the best selling EV for the foreseeable future. No conflict from me there.

But a $44k base car (plus mandatory upgrades) is what they’re going to be selling for the first 18 months of production. This is 26% more than the base car they advertised when they took my deposit. They did not announce that long range car until about six months ago.