Model 3 superchargeable?

[dhanson865]

Supercharger would be make-it-or-break it for me on the Model 3. I have to think it will at least be offered as an option. As mentioned...not something you'd necessarily use every day, but the peace of mind knowing it's there when you need it is worth it.

I'd be surprised if the base config didn't include supercharging. Most here disagree with me but I see it as a huge marketing factor and I expect it to either be rolled into the price of the car or a cheap option that no one would dare to not click the checkbox or choose the dropdown or whatever and that Tesla employees would ask you in triplicate to confirm if you wanted to leave it off an order as in 99% or more of the cars would have it even if it was an option.

Scenario A the base option has supercharging so 100% of all Model 3 have it.
Scenario B the base option has the hardware and the cost of enabling the feature is so cheap that 99% of the cars have it.

It really doesn't matter which way they go. People will want it and most if not all will get it.

 

[ecarfan]

Model 3 supercharable?

I think it will be Scenario C: all Model 3's will be built with the Supercharging hardware but Supercharger access "for life" will be a $2,500 option.
Remember, no other EV manufacturer has a fast DC global charging network. There is no reason to give it away for free or even cheaply.

 

[doubeld]

And then the pricing is either inflated or can't be guaranteed to cover the cost of the electricity.
But I think such issues will be resolved and eventually all states will have laws that allow regulate reselling of electricity for EV charging.

I prefer Tesla's model though.
- Simple: cheaper equipment, no account management, no ongoing financial transactions and payments
- Reliable: card scanners, Internet connection, alternative method of payment or account management to cause problems
- Fast: plug in and walk away; no fishing for or scanning cards
- Well-financed: Tesla gets the money up front to pay for required infrastructure, so the network can be sized per car

The challenge for Tesla is to make the savings outweigh the cost of being free at the point of use. I hope they can come up with a solution that works to ensure "fair use".

Exactly. This. 100%

I think it will be Scenario C: all Model 3's will be built with the Supercharging hardware but Supercharger access "for life" will be a $2,500 option.
Remember, no other EV manufacturer has a fast DC global charging network. There is no reason to give it away for free or even cheaply.

Not a chance. Even the Model S was only $2000. We're all gracious for those early adopters for subsidizing the build out.
As I've said before, it only takes ~150 cars @ $2k to finance the build of a SuperCharger station. That is a VERY GOOD ratio.

 

[Skotty]

I still think the free model is asking for trouble. The longer these cars last, the more they eat into whatever profit Tesla makes on them over the life of the car. These cars might last an insanely long time.

Now I might be a high use corner case given my frequent business travel, but I expect to make at least 50 Supercharger fill ups per year. If I assume each stop is about $10 worth of electricity, it only takes 4 years to eat up the entire $2000 (or 5 if it is $2500) of the up front cost. After that, every year I keep driving the same Tesla, it's another $500 of free fuel and $500 less profit for Tesla. What if I keep this car for 20 years? Can Tesla soak up the additional $7500 of free electricity that wasn't built into the car over that time? What if I don't keep the car for 20 years? Then someone else buys it, and keeps driving it, and every Supercharger stop continues to eat into Tesla profits. These cars will keep going and going, and at some point it's going to be a problem. People need to pay for what they use. A single up front charge is sloppy and can't continue indefinitely. Especially once every Tom, Dick, and Harry has a Tesla and they all want the free fuel. It will be a freeloader extravaganza.

Since I care about helping Tesla be profitable, I'm actually seriously considering saving about $10 for every Supercharger I stop at and putting that money back into Tesla. If I can't find a better way to send it back, I'll use it for Tesla stock purchase that I will keep indefinitely. But I might be the only person on Earth doing that.

 

[James Anders]

I think it will be Scenario C: all Model 3's will be built with the Supercharging hardware but Supercharger access "for life" will be a $2,500 option.
Remember, no other EV manufacturer has a fast DC global charging network. There is no reason to give it away for free or even cheaply.

If Musk truly wants to achieve his goal of widespread adoption of BEVs then "free" Supercharger access is a must. Particularly now since gas is so cheap.

Even if it's something that's rarely used for many buyers, the perceived ability to Supercharge is what makes the Tesla proposition acceptable.

At present Teslas have been sold to the early adopters who have a particular passion (i.e. engineering, performance, ecology) but the mass market will not be so driven to buy. These new crop of buyers will be much tougher to convince and access to an even more expansive (from today) Supercharger network is vital.

 

[Laserbrain]

I think free supercharging is a must in the short-run for marketing reasons.

In the long-run it is a horrible idea from an environmental and fairness perspective.

Free energy means that energy will get wasted. It is like an all-you-can-eat buffet where a lot of the people eat more than they usually would eat.

Or lets assume, I would like to eat some Weisswürste and drink a Hefeweizen on the weekend. I could go to a local shop on my bicycle - or I could drive 5 hours to Munich, the Weisswürste and Hefeweizen capitol, which would be insanly expensive in an ICE - with free supercharging... hey, why not, if I got the time to spare.

Free supercharging means wasted energy. As long as there is still energy coming from filthy nuclear power plants or coal power plants, wasting energy is a bad thing. Wasting energy is 100% against anything Tesla stands for.

The other argument is fairness. Why should I, as someone who charges at home and might only use a supercharger a couple times per year, pay the electricity bill of the people who use the supercharger once per week? Especially when these people use the superchargers to lower the operating costs of their businesses - why should I pay for them?

Last but not least: free superchargers means people are more likely to charge on the road for free than at home. So instead of charging your Tesla in 40 min you will have to wait 1 hour and 20 minutes for the two Tesla in front of you to finish charging before you can charge 40 min. Suddenly supercharging will take 2 hours instaed of 40 min (well, at least this would kill my desire for a quick trip to Munich).

Would it be a problem to install a per use payment? Let me think, the superchargers are connected to the internet... is there a person who could develop an internet based payment system... who could devolop something like this... hmmh... somthing like ChargePal...

 

[marcon]

Ideally, Supercharger hardware costs and usage fees would all be included in the base purchase price of the car, as it is with the current line up of Model S and X. Since Superchargers are one of the main competitive advantages over possible or actual competitors, at least a paid option is a no-brainer.

Supercharger hardware was and is included in all cars sold by Tesla. This happend to improve manufacturing streamlining and offer upgradability to customers, who didn't appreciate the option properly at time of purchase. Now, Tesla Motors can enable Supercharger access on used Model S sold through their pre-owned program, since they included the hardware in all cars. Since Tesla will gain many uninformed customers by going mass market, it seems prudent to continue this strategy.

If Tesla can't decrease costs of Model 3 far enough to hit the promised price point of $35k with their intended profit margin, they will probably make customers pay for Supercharger access at least for the lower spec cars. This could take the form it had for the S60 as an up-front payment or of a pay-per-use system, as described by other posters.

Time-based pay-per-use

For:

• Discourage non-long-distance use or fund additional Superchargers for local and inner-city use.
• Discourage prolonged parking at superchargers, blocking stalls by Tesla owners.
• Encourage use of Superchargers during highest-C charging phase only, as $/kW increases toward the tail end of the charge. Maybe offer a running counter and $/kw figure on the center screen.
• This would ease congestion at Superchargers by increasing throughput per stall. It would also offer the possibility of discounts at less busy times or surcharges at prime times, if usage patterns for a fleet two magnitudes larger (late 2020s) create the need to reduce congestion by directing traffic to less busy times.
• Continuously fund an exclusive lease of the Supercharger parking spots by Tesla to prevend ICEing under threat of towing.

Against:

• Loss of a great unique selling point of free, life-long, no-hassle long-distance charging.
• Cost and expenditure of billing system.
• Legal difficulties might exist in some regions/localities resulting in different billing or usage models.
• Sharing of Supercharger by two stalls, different generations of superchargers (90kw, 120kw, 135kw, ???kw) and battery charging level, result in different/unpredictable charging speeds and thereby charging cost. Could be mitigated by mixing time-based and usage-based billing, if legally possible, without losing the advantages mentioned above altogether.

 

[PeterW]

I have a thought(I do get them every once in a while); All Model 3 cars will have auto pilot. Once the Model 3 comes out all supercharging stations will be fitted with self charging snakes. The cars will have to have a programmed destination to be able to charge. Once the car has enough charge to reach it's intended destination(with a buffer) the car will unplug and exit the charging stall. This will ease congestion and stop locals from using the superchargers when they could be charging at home

 

[Raffy.Roma]

The business model is already in place. Buy a car. Use Superchargers Free (of additional fees) for Life (the life of the car). Sorted.

There is no reason for Tesla Motors to sell you electricity. It is way more trouble than it's worth. Just buy a car. They'll be fine.

+ 1

 

[Raffy.Roma]

If Musk truly wants to achieve his goal of widespread adoption of BEVs then "free" Supercharger access is a must. Particularly now since gas is so cheap.

Even if it's something that's rarely used for many buyers, the perceived ability to Supercharge is what makes the Tesla proposition acceptable.

At present Teslas have been sold to the early adopters who have a particular passion (i.e. engineering, performance, ecology) but the mass market will not be so driven to buy. These new crop of buyers will be much tougher to convince and access to an even more expansive (from today) Supercharger network is vital.

Agree 100%

 

[purplewalt]

jreffro01: Correct.

• The Great State of Texas has somehow run out of time in the legislature both in 2013 and 2015, and has failed to put through a vote on whether or not Tesla Motors will be allowed to actually sell cars there. They only meet once every two years, so the 2017 session is the last chance before the release of Tesla Model ≡.

People forget how tough the political situation can be for Tesla Motors.

You are absolutely correct, the politics of several states are very ponderous and slow to change.

I don't see the entrenched political powers in the Great State of Texas as having a "Great Awaking" before Model ≡ is available for initial deliveries.
Certainly not before the 2019 Session.
No one will own or have even driven a Model ≡ by the time the Texas Legislature convenes in very early 2017.

Not being negative, just looking at the amount of overall education that is even required to begin having a decent and meaningful conversation with the Legislators.
Because the "protectionist" Lobbyists own the Legislature, and have extreme influence what bills even make it out of Committee to the full Session for a Vote.

Tesla Motors has a better chance winning "access to sell" by challenging the existing laws in the courtroom than waiting for the Legislators to graduate with their full education.

 

[tga]

I'll throw out a couple of thoughts, without taking a side on whether or not charging will/should be free.

In Oct 2014, Superchargers delivered 2 GWh (up from 1 Gwh the preceding June) - Tesla Supercharger Network Growth, October at 2 GWh delivered | Tesla Motors. That's a non-trivial expense/lost revenue (revenue that could easily fund the development of a billing system). It'll get much greater when the 3 arrives.

I could see Superchargers in cities/high density areas being pay-per-use for Model 3's only (S and X were guaranteed free-for-life and will be a much smaller percentage of cars on the road) to prevent abuse, while Superchargers in remote areas along interstates remain free for road trips. Apartment dwellers have a place to charge, but people who could charge at home don't take advantage of (and clog up) in-city Superchargers. But the promise/marketing advantage of free road trips still works.

 

[Twiglett]

The more I read on this subject the more I am convinced there is not a chance that Tesla will charge a fee for supercharger access.
I posted elsewhere with the same thought.
The current network and its continuing expansion is currently entirely funded by Model S sales (and now X) and will continue to be for the next two years.
It will be at least three years before Model 3 numbers even approach the volume of S or X cars on the road, but obviously after that the expectation is that there will be way more M3 than MS out there.
But the point is that its still three to four years away and at the current installation rate this would be around 1000 more new supercharger locations.

Put this into perspective here :
2013 63 total SCs
2014 329 total SCs
2015 589 total SCs
today 605 total SCs
Now add 1000 more - there will be three times as many as there are now.

So it is extremely unlikely that Tesla will need to charge anything like $2000 for supercharger access, if they have a fee at all.

 

[S3XY]

You are absolutely correct, the politics of several states are very ponderous and slow to change.

I don't see the entrenched political powers in the Great State of Texas as having a "Great Awaking" before Model ≡ is available for initial deliveries.
Certainly not before the 2019 Session.
No one will own or have even driven a Model ≡ by the time the Texas Legislature convenes in very early 2017.

Not being negative, just looking at the amount of overall education that is even required to begin having a decent and meaningful conversation with the Legislators.
Because the "protectionist" Lobbyists own the Legislature, and have extreme influence what bills even make it out of Committee to the full Session for a Vote.

Tesla Motors has a better chance winning "access to sell" by challenging the existing laws in the courtroom than waiting for the Legislators to graduate with their full education.

Everyone knows that Texas is all about freedom, the free market and eliminating government regulation. I'm sure the Legislature can't wait to allow Tesla to sell cars there.

I think Supercharger access will be included in the Model ≡. Elon is all about pushing EV's into mainstream use and what better way to do that then to eliminate range anxiety? Also, I seem to remember Elon saying that down the road (no pun intended) access to SC's would be extended to non-Teslas.

 

[jeff_adams]

We really haven't seen the Solar City dynamic introduced yet. Solar City's business plan is to build out a massive solar grid which produces energy to sell to consumers. I can see them partnering up with Tesla to use the existing real estate at superchargers to produce excess electricity which they sell (making the power the cars use essentially free for Tesla). The symbiotic relationship could benefit both and allow Tesla to offer free energy to their customers.

 

[Model 3]

The more I read on this subject the more I am convinced there is not a chance that Tesla will charge a fee for supercharger access.

One thing that most people here does seems to overlook is the EU directive that will be effective from November 2017. It demands that all new DC charging-points have to:
1. Have a CSS plug
2. Have non-discrimination access
3. Have "add-hock" payment
4. Have a reasonable price.

So, at least for the EU they will have to have a "pay-as-you-go" system. Whatever Tesla was planing to do, this may change their plans....

 

[ratsbew]

As long as there is still energy coming from filthy nuclear power plants or coal power plants, wasting energy is a bad thing.

Where do you get the idea that nuclear is "filthy". Nuclear is a bastion of green technology. Don't buy into the propaganda against nuclear.

 

[Twiglett]

One thing that most people here does seems to overlook is the EU directive that will be effective from November 2017. It demands that all new DC charging-points have to:
1. Have a CSS plug
2. Have non-discrimination access
3. Have "add-hock" payment
4. Have a reasonable price.

So, at least for the EU they will have to have a "pay-as-you-go" system. Whatever Tesla was planing to do, this may change their plans....

Typical EU
Legislate a flawed model before deciding which is the best while providing no incentive for adoption other than a stick.
All from a body that was elected by no-one
I didn't realize it was EU wide, I thought it was just Germany protecting its own

 

[Model 3]

Typical EU
Legislate a flawed model before deciding which is the best while providing no incentive for adoption other than a stick.
All from a body that was elected by no-one
I didn't realize it was EU wide, I thought it was just Germany protecting its own

It is EU/EEA wide yes. Spain has already a law on this - but exempted Teslas SuperChargers until November 2017. I have no idea about when other countries will add this law, but the directive says it has to be in effect by said November 2017. About the time TM3 will start production...

 

[Red Sage]

Not a chance. Even the Model S was only $2000.

Well, since the initial minimal amount to deposit for a Model S was $5,000... And the registration amount for Model ≡ is going to be $1,000... I probably wouldn't object if the 'option' for Supercharger access was 20% of $2,000 -- $400. But since $400 amounts to only 9.5% of a 12% profit margin at a $35,000 MSRP, I don't believe Tesla Motors will bother with a fee for the service. Buy a car. Enjoy Supercharger access Free (of additional fees) for LIFE (the life of the car). Easy.
;-)



35,000 x 88% = 30,800
35,000 - 30,800 = 4,200
400 / 4,200 = 9.5238095%


35,000 / 1.12 = 31,250
35,000 - 31,250 = 3,750
400 / 3,750 = 10.666~%