Model 3 Supercharging Capable Discussion

[cpa]

OK, just going to throw this out there, and then I will duck for cover.. . .

We know that Tesla has volumes of data on Supercharger use at each and every location. Tesla knows who is charging, where they are charging and when they are charging.

It seems to me that Tesla could develop some reasonable parameters as to just what constitutes a "local Supercharger" for Model 3 buyers. This will be laid out clearly to the buyer when the auto is sold. The buyer will be able to Supercharge at his local Supercharger(s) but only during "off-peak" hours. These hours would be posted on the signs and displayed on their touchscreen.

So for apartment dwellers and others without access to home charging, they still have free access, but not when they want to charge, but when Tesla says they can charge. And those who want to save a few bucks even though they have home charging can do the same. Those who can charge at home may tire of this drill after a few months.

I am not proposing that these times be at ridiculous hours, like 10PM-6AM. But certainly commuters can leave home 30 minutes early and charge at 6:30 AM, or charge weekends before noon.

 

[ttupper92618]

Hmm! That's interesting. I thought they all did. My fault for assuming.

Curious. I wonder if that's because there isn't a demand for it (not enough consumers would take advantage of the special time-of-use meter boxes or even use electricity at night) or even if there was a demand, it's not something they're interested in.

I really can't hazard a guess as to the reason. Perhaps capacity. In the summer, we routinely have energy save days, and people get discounts off their bills by allowing the power companies to throttle their air-conditioning, etc. On rare occasions, there have been rolling brown-outs.

One thing to note is that here in California, about a third of our electricity comes from renewables, and the vast majority of the rest is generated using natural gas (the majority) or nuclear. Only about .003% of the state's electrical generation is done via coal fired plants. Accordingly, owning a Tesla in CA is a very green choice, but from a 'fuel' perspective, not as inexpensive as elsewhere.

 

[ttupper92618]

Ok, I'll bite.

Based on the reports you have read:
- How often does supercharger overutilization happen?
- How is overutilization defined? Is it average wait time? Number of free stalls?
- How often does this happen vs. all usage (is it 30%? 3? 0.3%) ?

It's obviously all anecdotal. I don't have access to any official Tesla statistics, so I have to rely on reports on the web... like this one, which actually features a picture of the Supercharger station in Tejon, CA. with a 15 car lineup waiting for a spot:

A new app for Tesla Superchargers allows you to check-in and hopes to provide near-real-time status for available stalls

Now, I'm sure someone in short order is going to point out that this was one day, after a holiday. To which I retort: so what? This was also at the end of 2015, when the number of Teslas sold in the entire US was less than < 70,000 - ever. Now, imagine what that line will look like on a daily basis after 500K new model 3's get added to the mix. And then realize that Tesla plans to sell as many as 500k cars a year by 2020. So, do the math: what happens to that line when the number of Teslas driving around in the US reaches 500k? 1 million?

People looking at their local supercharger and thinking "gee, there is no problem, what doomsayers!"... those people are not thinking. There is a massive scalability issue in the offing, and it would be foolish to think that free, any station, any time supercharger access can continue indefinitely. I'm happy to be wrong... but I expect that 5 years from now, the way Tesla manages access to superchargers will be greatly different than it is today, barring some significant technological development.

 

[Drivin]

It's obviously all anecdotal. I don't have access to any official Tesla statistics, so I have to rely on reports on the
web

Well, ok. Your analysis is based on random uncorraberated statements from anonymous people. Well, that is a great basis for an argument.

Here is some more "data": everytime I have been to a supercharger there has been no wait. Well, that just proves that locals aren't an issue.
Book it.
Done.

Hail hydra.

 

[ttupper92618]

Well, ok. Your analysis is based on random uncorraberated statements from anonymous people. Well, that is a great basis for an argument.

Here is some more "data": everytime I have been to a supercharger there has been no wait. Well, that just proves that locals aren't an issue.
Book it.
Done.

Hail hydra.

Look, we don't HAVE good data, so at least admit that your conjecture is no better than mine. But I at least do have this on my side: Tesla's plans to double or even quadruple the number of superchargers is a lot less than the multiplier being applied to the number of supercharger capable cars at this point, and the delta will only get worse over time. It is not possible to scale the network as quickly or as much as Tesla can scale car production. So, it is merely logic that at some point, capacity problems will arise.

Again, I'll be super happy if everyone can use the superchargers for 'free' indefinitely, and without there ever being any congestion issues. But I think that expectation is just more than a little naive; Scale is an issue for any sufficiently complex system.

 

[MP3Mike]

It's obviously all anecdotal. I don't have access to any official Tesla statistics, so I have to rely on reports on the web... like this one, which actually features a picture of the Supercharger station in Tejon, CA. with a 15 car lineup waiting for a spot:

A new app for Tesla Superchargers allows you to check-in and hopes to provide near-real-time status for available stalls

Now, I'm sure someone in short order is going to point out that this was one day, after a holiday. To which I retort: so what? This was also at the end of 2015, when the number of Teslas sold in the entire US was less than < 70,000 - ever. Now, imagine what that line will look like on a daily basis after 500K new model 3's get added to the mix. And then realize that Tesla plans to sell as many as 500k cars a year by 2020. So, do the math: what happens to that line when the number of Teslas driving around in the US reaches 500k? 1 million?

That is the one example that everybody points to. (I haven't seen any other similar examples.) But in addition to being a holiday weekend there were other factors at play: Long Queues Cause Multi-Hour Wait For Tejon Ranch Tesla Supercharger — Here’s Why It Was The Perfect Storm

 

[Twiglett]

I'll bet that the whole supercharger free or not will not get decided until they have REALLY buttoned down what it costs them to build the car.
Obviously the hardware will be there same as for AP, but the cost (or not) will depend entirely on the margin to Tesla, balanced against their mission.

 

[Drivin]

Look, we don't HAVE good data, so at least admit that your conjecture is no better than mine. .

Sure, I will admit that.

Based on the reports I have been reading, supercharger over-utilization happens much more than you describe.

But given that, I wouldn't tell someone they were wrong based on my conjecture from reading anonymous uncorroborated sources on the internet. (although I know you can't post anything on the internet unless it is true).

By the way, what exactly is over-utilization based on these reports?

 

[ikjadoon]

We'll have a lot more data to make conjectures about in a few weeks/months. Supercharger availability data will be going public in an OTA, Elon said a week ago.

I'm hoping someone can output that data and put it up online. I'd love to see our amateur analyses....

I think we all just like to speculate a bit. And everyone wants to be the person who can say, "You know, I predicted this weeks/months/years ago; here, look at this post I made. Look at the date. Now look at today. Who has two thumbs and is an all-seeing eye and confidante of Elon Musk? Thissssss guy/gal."

 

[ohmman]

It's not just the one horrible example, though. Queues aren't abnormal during peak times. Whether local charging contributes to that is hard to say; Harris Ranch, for instance, probably has very little local charging, but it's been known to queue up on Sundays regularly. I waited at Roseville recently on my way to Tahoe. I only waited 15 minutes, but it was a Thursday IIRC. The woman who vacated a spot for me had returned with a couple of shopping bags. Incidental to charging, or local? I can't tell. It's possible she just multitasked on her trip.

I'm just saying that it exists, and it causes congestion anxiety as you approach the Supercharger. Surely there's another member reading this who has done as I've done - you see a Model S on your way to the Supercharger, and you try to beat them. You know.. just in case. I lost that race once and had to wait. I've never had to wait terribly long, but these were times before there were even Model Xs on the road. And all of this is very limited compared to the Model 3.

Maybe coverage is the answer, and I hope so. Coverage + congestion app in the car should help a lot. But to dismiss queueing as something that never happens is clearly disingenuous. Just because someone hasn't experienced it for themselves doesn't mean that nobody else has.

 

[SpiceWare]

Now, I'm sure someone in short order is going to point out that this was one day, after a holiday.

Wasn't there also a wildfire that shut down 101, so people that would have charged in say Buellton had to divert and charge at Tejan Ranch?

 

[ChadFeldheimer]

Suppose a typical Tesla's serviceable life is about 300,000 miles: that's about $10k in electricity at $0.10/kwh (assume 333wh/mile). Gross margin on a S starts around $15k, so even if all 300k miles are supercharged, Tesla still comes out ahead. This is obviously sustainable.

Gross margin on a 3 will obviously be nowhere near $15k or even $10k - but lifetime energy costs remain the same. This is not obviously sustainable.

At a $35k base price, minus $7500 federal tax credit and factoring in $10,000 in supercharged electricity, the 3 will cost a measly $17,500. Even less in states with additional incentives (e.g. CA and CO). Compare this to a comparable ICE that might cost $25,000 - plus perhaps $20,000 in gasoline over 300k miles (assume 30mpg and $2/gallon).

So if supercharging a 3 has no marginal cost to the consumer, it will have strong (economic) appeal to those who pile on the miles. For example, salespeople, insurance adjusters, etc. Furthermore, much of this driving could legitimately be non-local - thus complying with the spirit of "free long-distance supercharging". The per mile depreciation cost of a $70k+ car (i.e. S or X) all but rules out using those cars in this capacity - but at $35k, the 3 is literally a no brainer.

For the above reasons, I don't expect Tesla to have any free-for-life supercharging capability with the 3. For the S/X, they could elect to keep supercharging free for life... or not. Doesn't really matter as it is sustainable.

For the record, I drive an S now. My lease is up in summer 2018, and I hope to accept delivery of my 3 then. If supercharging is free for the 3, I would be less likely to get one.

 

[ttupper92618]

Wasn't there also a wildfire that shut down 101, so people that would have charged in say Buellton had to divert and charge at Tejan Ranch?

I don't know, to be honest. In the end, this is all conjecture. Perhaps I'm just pessimistic. It seems very simple to me: if you increase the number of supercharging capable cars by 500K (that's at least a 10x increase over now), but you scale your supercharge network by only 2x... then that's a 5x load increase per supercharger.

How long could that realistically progress before there were capacity problems?

To me, it seems obvious that there will eventually be capacity issues that will necessitate a change in supercharger policy. But hey, maybe i'm just being a glass half empty kinda guy.

 

[ohmman]

It seems very simple to me: if you increase the number of supercharging capable cars by 500K (that's at least a 10x increase over now), but you scale your supercharge network by only 2x... then that's a 5x load increase per supercharger.

To be fair, the 2x network sizing was by the time they start producing Model 3 ("by the end of next year"). The additional load at that point will be the Model S and X that are sold up until then. Your 500k number is at least two years later, at which point they may have doubled or tripled again the number of charging points.

 

[ttupper92618]

To be fair, the 2x network sizing was by the time they start producing Model 3 ("by the end of next year"). The additional load at that point will be the Model S and X that are sold up until then. Your 500k number is at least two years later, at which point they may have doubled or tripled again the number of charging points.

Fair enough. But you also have to acknowledge that the intent is to continue selling cars, potentially up to 500K per anum. If they do that, then it becomes an open question as to how long they can continue scaling the supercharger network to meet the increasing demand. How many times would they need to double the network infrastructure to meet the supercharging needs of, say, 1 million Teslas? And, is it really reasonable to expect that they can / would do that while keeping them 'free'?

I'm not suggesting I know the answer. I am, however, pessimistic on this matter, as I'm sure I've made very clear by now. ;-)

 

[ohmman]

But you also have to acknowledge that the intent is to continue selling cars, potentially up to 500K per anum. If they do that, then it becomes an open question as to how long they can continue scaling the supercharger network to meet the increasing demand. How many times would they need to double the network infrastructure to meet the supercharging needs of, say, 1 million Teslas? And, is it really reasonable to expect that they can / would do that while keeping them 'free'?

If you read my post before the one you quoted, you'll see that I am not living in a fantasy land where there are not going to be scalability challenges. I just didn't like the (surely unintentionally) loose math in your argument.

I have to believe Tesla's thinking about this. I think we've vetted out a number of options in this thread, and some of them are interesting and reasonable. However, I get the feeling that Tesla won't completely dismiss the idea of flipping the Supercharger network into a revenue-neutral or even revenue-positive business unit. There's a breaking point at which management alone is more costly than sales can cover. Eventually it becomes too much like a Ponzi scheme, having future sales pay for infrastructure and maintenance. That only works with consistent growth, and relying on that is bad business.

The thing about it, as I've said before, is that Tesla has the data that matters right now, and they aren't sharing it. So this is all a lot of speculation (fun as it may be) with very little to back it up except for anecdotes.

 

[EcoHeliGuy]

If you read my post before the one you quoted, you'll see that I am not living in a fantasy land where there are not going to be scalability challenges. I just didn't like the (surely unintentionally) loose math in your argument.

I have to believe Tesla's thinking about this. I think we've vetted out a number of options in this thread, and some of them are interesting and reasonable. However, I get the feeling that Tesla won't completely dismiss the idea of flipping the Supercharger network into a revenue-neutral or even revenue-positive business unit. There's a breaking point at which management alone is more costly than sales can cover. Eventually it becomes too much like a Ponzi scheme, having future sales pay for infrastructure and maintenance. That only works with consistent growth, and relying on that is bad business.

The thing about it, as I've said before, is that Tesla has the data that matters right now, and they aren't sharing it. So this is all a lot of speculation (fun as it may be) with very little to back it up except for anecdotes.

Even though I am firm believer in the free model is sustainable.

Your suggestion of revenue-neutral wouldn't bother so much if. Tesla paid for and install superchargers. And we paid for the cost of energy. Pass on lower tier rates like at night, travel in off peak energy times and enjoy off peak energy prices. And then Tesla could use solar and in some select places wind or run of river energy to offer free charging.

Not for profit or to control usage. Just if sustainable at the present rate isn't achievable in the future.

The way I see it though, by not having dealer profits involved, Tesla is rolling that portion of your purchase into Superchargers. Although we know they are actually using advertising funds to support the network, which to me is brilliant and perfect.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla is already expanding its Supercharger Network following the Model 3 unveiling

While everyone had their eyes glued to the Model 3 at the unveiling event last month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made an important announcement regarding the automaker’s two networks of charging stations. He said that Tesla will double the number of Superchargers to 7,000 units and quadruple the number of Destination chargers to 15,000 units within the next 2 years.

If the close to 400,000 Model 3 reservations (and still counting) end up turning into orders, Tesla will certainly need all those stations to allow its customers to make roadtrips and travel long-distances. We now learn that the company is already getting to work. Tesla secured permits or started construction at 11 new locations (~90 new Superchargers) since the unveiling event.

The new permits are for new Supercharger stations in Plattsburg (NY), Landsberg (Germany), Magog (Quebec) and more – see full list below.

The process can often be long and difficult since it is dependent on several outside parties like the municipalities, contractors and the local utilities. They all need to come together to bring a new stations online, which is not always a painless process like anything in the infrastructure business.

We’ve heard so many stories of frustrated Model S owners waiting for their local Supercharger to come online, while there’s some sort of holdup in one bureaucratic process or another.

But now after over 600 stations and 3,600 Superchargers, Tesla has learned a lot and we are starting to see new stations going through the process and coming online quicker. Here are the current stations with permits or already under-construction via Superchare.info’s interactive map:

 

[CuriousG]

Does the CHAdeMO adapter require SC activation on the S or X? I think that the CHAdeMO adapter should work regardless of SC activation, but I don't know how it actually is set up. Personally, should I buy a 3, I would like to simply have the CHAdeMO adapter for any local quick charging that I would need without having to pay for SC access, regardless if it is baked in, an add-on, or a monthly subscription. The car already knows if it is at a SC or not.

My understanding is the 60kW battery you had to pay around $2,000 to turn on Supercharger access. I think it was broken down to by X amount of dollar for DCFC access (CHAdeMO) and the rest went into Supercharging. So no it wasn't turned on. It would make sense to leave DCFC access on but charge for Supercharger access. Although I'm sure Model 3 owners won't be too happy to find that the CHAdeMO adapter is $450.

 

[Archer]

Free for life is sustainable even with a million plus cars if TM succeeds in being a net generator of electricity. Through the use of solar panels and battery units, it is possible to scale up to meet demand indefinitely. How? Elon gave a presentation last year in which he talked about how much energy shines upon the earth every day and that using existing technology to cover a small corner of Utah as an example can provide the energy needs of the entire country every day.