Model 3: the true S killer?

[malcolm]

I'm not sure if we will find out on the 31st whether or not Tesla intends to maintain continuity with the "650" part or the 18650 cell form factor.

Whilst it's great to see Tesla introduce 100 kWh, without a major breakthrough in cell chemistry, taller cells are the only way to fit more kWh into a fixed battery pack footprint.

Good news for the 3. Not so much for backwards compatibility with the S and X.

 

[WarpedOne]

I for one expect Model 3 to have shorter wheelbase than Model S.
This by itself demands shorter and narrower battery pack. Smaller battery pack results in smaller max capacity.
Running with A4 remark, ... A4 has 5% shorter wheelbase and 6% narrower track than S. This amounts to some 10% less floorspace for battery. Using same cell chemistry this results in 10% smaller max pack capacity for 3 than for S.
S being larger and heavier and thus 'less efficient' I expect Model 3 to have similar max range than S with same battery chemistry. As for packaging, some time back there the 20700 format was thrown around. It doesn't sound as a big change, but 20700 cells have 1/3 larger volume and only 1/5 larger surface, increasing 'volumetric efficiency' by 10%. This again doesn't sound as much but it means 10% less dead weight in cell packaging and thus 10% higher cell energy density.
Going with even fatter cells, say 22700, those numbers become 60% higher volume, 33%higher surface, 20% higher volumetric efficiency and 20% higher energy density than using 18650 format. It does pay some dividend by going with somewhat bigger cells. Diminishing returns when the total energy in one cell becomes to big to safely contain and insulate from other cells and prevent thermal runaway. Bigger the cell is more energy is available to burn through the some amount of insulation. There is a balance where the weight of insulation and packaging material is minimal per total E contained. We can safely assume 18650 is not at that optimum yet simply because the format was not chosen on this criteria but was chosen on availability and production costs. Now tesla is becoming big enough to "engineer production" to their own likings.

I fully expect Tesla to (partially) cannibalize themselves. They couldn't care less of say 10% lower S and X annual sells because they sell 200k Model 3 per year.

 

[Trev Page]

I think the main reason Elon said they weren't sure how much to disclose about Model 3 at the reveal is to try and prevent an Osbourne effect on Model S sales. Model 3 is still a year and a half away from production and they can't afford loss of sales in the meantime. Once it's in production they're going to be like Apple: we don't care if the 3 canibalizes sales of Morel S as long as it canibalizes our own products.

 

[WarpedOne]

True.
That's why I expect a significant S/X upgrade at or short after model 3 reveal.
100kWh would be such an upgrade.

 

[EinSV]

Far from an S killer, Model 3 will likely increase S sales:

1) Gigafactory -- made possible by Model 3 -- will significantly reduce battery costs for S, leading to increased range and performance improvements
2) Reduced costs to build the S from Gigafactory and added manufacturing experience can be invested in more technology, improved creature comforts, enhanced fit and finish for the S
3) More $ to invest in buildout of Supercharger network, stores and service centers, which will make S more attractive and practical for many
4) More happy Tesla customers will bring political clout to fight, e.g., retrograde dealership laws
5) Large volume of Model 3s on the road will increase brand awareness and serve as rolling Tesla billboards to potential customers who may not have Tesla on their radar


So while I'm sure some potential S customers will choose the Model 3 instead, they are likely to be outweighed by new S customers made possible by the 3.

 

[scott jones]

Far from an S killer, Model 3 will likely increase S sales:

1) Gigafactory -- made possible by Model 3 -- will significantly reduce battery costs for S, leading to increased range and performance improvements
2) Reduced costs to build the S from Gigafactory and added manufacturing experience can be invested in more technology, improved creature comforts, enhanced fit and finish for the S
3) More $ to invest in buildout of Supercharger network, stores and service centers, which will make S more attractive and practical for many
4) More happy Tesla customers will bring political clout to fight, e.g., retrograde dealership laws
5) Large volume of Model 3s on the road will increase brand awareness and serve as rolling Tesla billboards to potential customers who may not have Tesla on their radar


So while I'm sure some potential S customers will choose the Model 3 instead, they are likely to be outweighed by new S customers made possible by the 3.

. I totally agree with you IF your numbers one through three happen. if they don't, sales of model S will drastically be reduced. there has to be a difference that is significant between the model three and the model s. Right now the model s looks like a $40,000 vehicle inside and if you take out the touchscreen it's maybe a $30,000 vehicle. that has to change especially when it will be compared to the latest and greatest from a supposedly less luxurious model 3

 

[Red Sage]

So while I'm sure some potential S customers will choose the Model 3 instead, they are likely to be outweighed by new S customers made possible by the 3.

Precisely correct.

I totally agree with you IF your numbers one through three happen. if they don't, sales of model S will drastically be reduced.

And here we go with the cavalcade of 'IFs'... Have the courage of your convictions. Either you believe the Tesla Model ≡ will be a success, or you do not. The point of the entire exercise is for it to sell well, at or above a 10:1 ratio compared to the Model S. That is the intention of bringing out the car. The BMW 3-Series outsold the 7-Series 11:1 last year. It was supposed to do that. It is placed on the market for that specific intention. Would BMW prefer to sell 15,000 more 7-Series and lose 40,000 sales of the 3-Series in trade? Of course not. Tesla Motors is built different from traditional automobile manufacturers. Its high end vehicles exist to enable and support their Development and Production of their low end vehicles. Everyone else does it the other way around. BMW, AUDI, Mercedes-Benz, and others look down on having to sell 'affordable' cars to pay the bills. Each of them would rather just build 'Toys... for the RICH!' instead. Further, every single traditional automobile manufacturer, regardless of the price point of their vehicles, routinely uses 'luxury' as a marketing and selling point for their cars. ALL of them want to be perceived as a 'luxury' manufacturer. Here's my 'IFs' for you:

• If Tesla Motors can help move the world to a place where every home driveway or garage houses an electric vehicle as primary transportation, they will be happy.
• If the demand is so high for Model ≡ that they are too busy building them to satisfy requests for Model S and Model X, Tesla Motors will be happy.

The Model S has outsold the 7-Series three calendar years straight (along with A8 and Panamera). It has outsold the S-Class in 2013 and again in 2015, never dropping below second place, and well ahead of other competition. Sales of the Model S have steadily grown, in the US and worldwide, year-over-year, while its competitors have steadily gone downward. Yet, many here insist that it will be the Model ≡ that brings down its sales. No. Even the introduction of the Model X, another car that I believe will eventually outsell the Model S, has resulted in higher sales of the Model S. What will happen is that the Model ≡ will end up devastating sales for its direct competitors the same way the Model S did.

there has to be a difference that is significant between the model three and the model s. Right now the model s looks like a $40,000 vehicle inside and if you take out the touchscreen it's maybe a $30,000 vehicle. that has to change especially when it will be compared to the latest and greatest from a supposedly less luxurious model 3

Dude. Really? Have you actually looked at competition from AUDI, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz for the past... 40 years? The Family 'Look and Feel' of their vehicles has always been different scaled versions of the exact same car design. At a glance or in passing, you literally cannot tell the difference between an A4, A6, or A8 on the road. All you see is 'an AUDI'. Acura cars have become even worse since they appeared in the first MARVEL 'THOR' movie -- I no longer bother even attempting to learn what they sell. They are ALL alike. BMW 3-Series, 5-Series, 7-Series...? More of the same. The exact same profile, stance, grille, and nature across the entire product line. Literally 'NO DIFFERENCE' for decades. That is, no difference beyond what we have stated all along: People buy what they want, need, or can afford. You may want to purchase a 'luxury' vehicle, but I sure as [HECK] don't. Even if I were to purchase an EXPENSIVE vehicle, the point of doing so would have NOTHING to do with LUXURY. It's not about having a better LUXURY EXPERIENCE at all. It's about buying and driving a better CAR. And the Tesla Model ≡ will be the absolute best car in class. Period.

 

[mikevbf]

I do not know if this has already been discussed up thread, but I thought comparing the introduction of Model S while Tesla was still selling the Roadster might give us insight into what the introduction of the Model 3 will do the X and S. Think about it; the Roadster cost over 100K and the first Model S started at 50K. The S now starts at 70k and the Model 3 will have a 35k base price. The Model S has access to the super charger network. The Roadster does not. The Model 3 might have all the sensors for autonomous driving where the S and X do not.

Given the parallel, is it possible the Model 3 will not only be cheaper, but also have significant abilities the Model S and X will never have just as the Model S did over the Roadster? At what point did sales of the Roadster start dwindling? At what point did we learn the Model S would have access to super chargers and the Roadster would not? Putting these dates on a timeline might tell us how and when the Model 3 might start impacting Model S and X sales. I need a Tesla Motors historian.

One significant factor which might break the parallel introductions is that where the S and X are significantly larger than the Roadster, the Model 3 is smaller than the S and X which leaves a the S and X a niche. The Roadster has its niche too that the S and X do not completely fill which is the Roadster is a true sports car and yet they eventually discontinued the car. Unlike the time when Tesla built Roadsters, though, Tesla has hugely more automated production and the ability to produce different cars in parallel. So I do not think Tesla is going to discontinue the S and X anytime soon like they did with the Roadster. But, I do think it will eat some of the S and X's future sales. Maybe one of the cards Elon will keep secret for a while is extra sensors for autonomous driving. Again I wonder how the impact of revealing the super charger infrastructure effected the Roadsters?

 

[Model 3]

the Roadster is a true sports car and yet they eventually discontinued the car.

You do know that Tesla had a deal with Lotus for only about 2.500 gliders?

 

[EcoHeliGuy]

I do not know if this has already been discussed up thread, but I thought comparing the introduction of Model S while Tesla was still selling the Roadster might give us insight into what the introduction of the Model 3 will do the X and S. Think about it; the Roadster cost over 100K and the first Model S started at 50K. The S now starts at 70k and the Model 3 will have a 35k base price. The Model S has access to the super charger network. The Roadster does not. The Model 3 might have all the sensors for autonomous driving where the S and X do not.

Given the parallel, is it possible the Model 3 will not only be cheaper, but also have significant abilities the Model S and X will never have just as the Model S did over the Roadster? At what point did sales of the Roadster start dwindling? At what point did we learn the Model S would have access to super chargers and the Roadster would not? Putting these dates on a timeline might tell us how and when the Model 3 might start impacting Model S and X sales. I need a Tesla Motors historian.

One significant factor which might break the parallel introductions is that where the S and X are significantly larger than the Roadster, the Model 3 is smaller than the S and X which leaves a the S and X a niche. The Roadster has its niche too that the S and X do not completely fill which is the Roadster is a true sports car and yet they eventually discontinued the car. Unlike the time when Tesla built Roadsters, though, Tesla has hugely more automated production and the ability to produce different cars in parallel. So I do not think Tesla is going to discontinue the S and X anytime soon like they did with the Roadster. But, I do think it will eat some of the S and X's future sales. Maybe one of the cards Elon will keep secret for a while is extra sensors for autonomous driving. Again I wonder how the impact of revealing the super charger infrastructure effected the Roadsters?

The roadster production ended long before the Model S went into production.

 

[mikevbf]

The roadster production ended long before the Model S went into production.

Well now I feel silly for remembering my timelines wrong. Thanks for putting the record straight in one sentence.

 

[wallet.dat]

I just hope the Model E will be quicker/faster than the soccer mom Model X SUV (itself capable of mid-11s in the 1/4). It'd be rather silly if it didn't.

 

[Tesloid]

I just hope the Model E will be quicker/faster than the soccer mom Model X SUV (itself capable of mid-11s in the 1/4). It'd be rather silly if it didn't.

It isn't silly to see a $35K sedan being slower than a $80K SUV. The BMW X5 base model does 0 to 60mph in 6.1s while the BMW 320i does the same in 7.1s. You get what you pay for.

 

[malcolm]

...but on Planet Tesla, a Sedan can out-accelerate a Roadster.

 

[scott jones]

Precisely correct.


And here we go with the cavalcade of 'IFs'... Have the courage of your convictions. Either you believe the Tesla Model ≡ will be a success, or you do not. The point of the entire exercise is for it to sell well, at or above a 10:1 ratio compared to the Model S. That is the intention of bringing out the car. The BMW 3-Series outsold the 7-Series 11:1 last year. It was supposed to do that. It is placed on the market for that specific intention. Would BMW prefer to sell 15,000 more 7-Series and lose 40,000 sales of the 3-Series in trade? Of course not. Tesla Motors is built different from traditional automobile manufacturers. Its high end vehicles exist to enable and support their Development and Production of their low end vehicles. Everyone else does it the other way around. BMW, AUDI, Mercedes-Benz, and others look down on having to sell 'affordable' cars to pay the bills. Each of them would rather just build 'Toys... for the RICH!' instead. Further, every single traditional automobile manufacturer, regardless of the price point of their vehicles, routinely uses 'luxury' as a marketing and selling point for their cars. ALL of them want to be perceived as a 'luxury' manufacturer. Here's my 'IFs' for you:

• If Tesla Motors can help move the world to a place where every home driveway or garage houses an electric vehicle as primary transportation, they will be happy.
• If the demand is so high for Model ≡ that they are too busy building them to satisfy requests for Model S and Model X, Tesla Motors will be happy.

The Model S has outsold the 7-Series three calendar years straight (along with A8 and Panamera). It has outsold the S-Class in 2013 and again in 2015, never dropping below second place, and well ahead of other competition. Sales of the Model S have steadily grown, in the US and worldwide, year-over-year, while its competitors have steadily gone downward. Yet, many here insist that it will be the Model ≡ that brings down its sales. No. Even the introduction of the Model X, another car that I believe will eventually outsell the Model S, has resulted in higher sales of the Model S. What will happen is that the Model ≡ will end up devastating sales for its direct competitors the same way the Model S did.

Dude. Really? Have you actually looked at competition from AUDI, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz for the past... 40 years? The Family 'Look and Feel' of their vehicles has always been different scaled versions of the exact same car design. At a glance or in passing, you literally cannot tell the difference between an A4, A6, or A8 on the road. All you see is 'an AUDI'. Acura cars have become even worse since they appeared in the first MARVEL 'THOR' movie -- I no longer bother even attempting to learn what they sell. They are ALL alike. BMW 3-Series, 5-Series, 7-Series...? More of the same. The exact same profile, stance, grille, and nature across the entire product line. Literally 'NO DIFFERENCE' for decades. That is, no difference beyond what we have stated all along: People buy what they want, need, or can afford. You may want to purchase a 'luxury' vehicle, but I sure as [HECK] don't. Even if I were to purchase an EXPENSIVE vehicle, the point of doing so would have NOTHING to do with LUXURY. It's not about having a better LUXURY EXPERIENCE at all. It's about buying and driving a better CAR. And the Tesla Model ≡ will be the absolute best car in class. Period.

You seem to be dismissive of others opinions. I was correct about the new battery coming out with the x, and a host of other things, but I didn't do it by bashing others. In response to your statement: "Have you actually looked at the competition from Audi, BMW and Merc?" Yes. And that's why I bought a Genesis before I bought my Tesla because it was similar if not better, and FAR cheaper. ($42,000)

Regarding the looks, you may not be able to tell a difference between a 3, 5 and 7 series, but any owner or car person can, even a non afficianado. Regarding my Tesla. There's virtually NO difference between the 60,70,85 and 90 inside or out, WHICH NO other manufacturer does, If it wasn't for the badging, you'd NEVER know... "Dude"

 

[wallet.dat]

It isn't silly to see a $35K sedan being slower than a $80K SUV. The BMW X5 base model does 0 to 60mph in 6.1s while the BMW 320i does the same in 7.1s. You get what you pay for.

I should have clarified that I meant that the ME should be configurable to be faster than the X. Just like, for the sake of consistency, the BMW M3 vs X5.

 

[Trikkitt]

Regarding the looks, you may not be able to tell a difference between a 3, 5 and 7 series, but any owner or car person can, even a non afficianado. Regarding my Tesla. There's virtually NO difference between the 60,70,85 and 90 inside or out, WHICH NO other manufacturer does, If it wasn't for the badging, you'd NEVER know... "Dude"

I think your comparison is a bit off here. A BWM model 3 will have a number of different engines available, diesel and petrol of various sizes. You won't be able to tell the difference, other than perhaps a badge indicating the engine type on the back of the car. This is the SAME as a Tesla Model S... different sizes / speeds, but its the same car.

Comparing the 3, 5 and 7 - they are obviously different but they share some characteristics. The same can be said for the S and X, they are different but share some common areas.

So I disagree - every manufacturer I've looked at does what Tesla has done. It is simply that Tesla have yet to fill out their full range of cars.

 

[Twiglett]

I think your comparison is a bit off here. A BWM model 3 will have a number of different engines available, diesel and petrol of various sizes. You won't be able to tell the difference, other than perhaps a badge indicating the engine type on the back of the car. This is the SAME as a Tesla Model S... different sizes / speeds, but its the same car.

Comparing the 3, 5 and 7 - they are obviously different but they share some characteristics. The same can be said for the S and X, they are different but share some common areas.

So I disagree - every manufacturer I've looked at does what Tesla has done. It is simply that Tesla have yet to fill out their full range of cars.

While what you say appears correct, it is not an accurate assessment.
Obviously the body really is the same, all the other manufacturers will treat different engine sizes as different models.
Looking at BMW, you pick 3Series and get a list of engine sizes. Each one has its own little collection of trim differences. Only the 340i gets all the chrome around the windows, some options are now available, other option packages are different for each engine size, some paint colors are only available with specific engine sizes, the list goes on and on.
You can't just switch engine size, because all the base includes, paint colors and option setups etc are different.

 

[Red Sage]

You seem to be dismissive of others opinions.

Yup. Shole iz. Especially when their opinion makes no sense whatsoever.

You were claiming that there must be a 'difference' between different groups of cars within a product line. It has been noted time and again those differences tend to be by size, primarily. You appeared to indicate you felt those differences should be based upon quality of materials used within an interior and the features of such. I rather vehemently disagree. If someone were to walk by the open window of a 3-Series, 5-Series, and 7-series, and take a quick glance around the dashboard, instrument cluster, and center consoles, they are all practically identical. Dude.

 

[Johan]

If someone were to walk by the open window of a 3-Series, 5-Series, and 7-series, and take a quick glance around the dashboard, instrument cluster, and center consoles, they are all practically identical. Dude.

Dude. Doing the correct comparison shows your error in thinking: Comparing BMW 7 to Model S and BMW X6 will be correct, but not Model 3 to BMW 3 series. BMW doesn't own a lower level manufacturer but to give a parallell example say the S and X are comparable to what Lexus makes, then Model 3 will be comparable to what Toyta makes.