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Model 3 Timeline (speculation)

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by tga, Aug 22, 2014.

  1. tga

    tga Active Member

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    Has anyone thought about the timeline for the Model 3? I haven't found much in the way of discussion beyond "release in 2017".

    I'm sure this is easy for people who followed the Model S/X development closer then me. I'm wondering if we can back into guesstimates on upcoming dates for the Model 3, based on a target release of 2017.

    For example, T-x months for exhibit at a major car show, T-y for deposits, T-z for photos of a clay model, solid specs, etc.

    I'm wondering when I can see solid specs (performance, range, etc), official pictures of the clay model, and when I can put down my deposit.

    And if they do a Signature series, what does that really mean? What, exactly, did you get for a Signature reservation on a Model S? A bigger deposit, a priority slot, and choice of another color? Anything else? Were the Sig's more expensive than non-Sig's?
     
  2. Trev Page

    Trev Page Member

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    It's hard to say what Tesla will do in regards to Model 3 since it's going to be a mass market car. I reckon we'll get a good idea of how production ramp up will be like once we see what they do with Model X since they're started ramp up on that will be quick.

    As for showing the car, I think Tesla has perhaps learned a bit from Model S/X reveals. Both were late, especially Model X. I gather they would most likely only show the car once they are really ready and it's in final stages before production. Unless of course they want lots of publicity and advance orders. Hard to say.

    Both S and X had/have signature models with limited production and hefty downpayment requirements, maybe Model 3 might have a sig model, maybe not. My guess is they won't have a signature model, they will start taking deposits as soon as it's officially revealed.

    My deposit (I think would be in the $2K range) is ready ;)
     
  3. djplong

    djplong Member

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    ...and while we're at it, keep track of units sold in the US so we know whether or not to be able to expect the $7500 federal tax credit when the Model 3 finally comes out.
     
  4. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    #4 Red Sage, Aug 23, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2014
    It's important to understand that at this stage, everything that Tesla Motors does is a 'proof of concept'. Mostly because a lot of it has never been done before. Most specifically, building a viable automobile business that sells 100% electric cars. So they must choose what parts of the traditional automobile design and manufacturing processes will be retained, which will be modified, and which will be discarded in favor of something completely new. The company has learned more about the process at each stage, and with each vehicle.

    The Generation III vehicles, which I like to call Model ≡, will be a huge change from the norm. Even so, the cars must be at first rather normal, even ordinary, in general appearance. That does not mean they will be boring or uninspiring. Please note that they will be designed to compete against the BMW 3-Series, which are the undisputed class leaders in sales both in the US and worldwide. The car is not designed to go after the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Nissan Altima, or Ford Fusion. That will come later, after the Model ≡ establishes Tesla Motors as a successful manufacturer of an affordable mass market car.

    COMPLETELY UNSUBSTANTIATED POTENTIAL TIMELINE
    Model ≡
    Accelerated
    Probable
    Delayed
    Unveiling January 2015
    November 2015
    January 2016
    Reservations April 2015
    January 2016
    June 2016
    Orders January 2016
    June 2016
    September 2016
    Founders June 2016
    September 2016
    January 2017
    Signature July 2016
    October 2016
    March 2017
    Production September 2016
    January 2017
    July 2017
    I expect that at least three different versions of the Generation III cars will be unveiled at once. I think that a Sedan is certain to be among them. Another car will be either a Wagon or Crossover. I hope very much for a nice, low, sleek Coupe with Falcon Wing Doors... But doubt it will be there. The third car will probably be a Compact Sporthatch of some sort, as those are more acceptable as a 'world car'. Though they may be displayed at a car show together, I don't think they would all be available from the outset.

    HOPEFUL THINKING RELEASE DATES
    Vehicle
    Unveil
    Release
    Sedan
    2015 2016
    Wagon
    2015/2017
    2017/2019
    Crossover
    2015
    2017
    Sporthatch
    2015
    2017
    Coupe
    2016
    2018
    Minivan
    2017/2018
    2019/2020
    Cabriolet
    2017/2018
    2019/2020
    Pickup
    2018/2019
    2021/2022
     
  5. hileyms

    hileyms Member

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    Red Sage - should your Probable production be January 2017?
     
  6. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Yep. Thanks! I'll fix it...
     
  7. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    I think Red Sage's chart is a reasonable straw man, but I think it may be a little on the optimistic side. They are already a few months behind on their declared timeline for the Gigafactory, and that is the biggest prerequisite for Model 3. So I think that at least the "delayed" column shuffled culminate in full production in 2018. The probable scenario I think is at least mid-2017 for full production.

    This is just a gut feeling, based on watching the development of all three Tesla's so far-- Roadster, Model S and Model X.

    Elon is both truly optimistic about timeframes, AND has high standards for the perfection of design. Those are wonderful, probably essential characteristics for the success of Tesla Motors, but also inevitably lead to stretched schedules.
     
  8. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    Aren't they already saying 2017 is the release year for Model 3 ? So, if they release in 2017, that would not be delayed but as announced.

    edit : looks like that was a typo. Given that they are saying 2017 is the release year - I'd put probable as mid to end of that year with volume production in 2018.
     
  9. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    My take:

    Reveal of the proto in 2015 (maybe almost exactly a year from now once the X is in volume production, in order not to steal its thunder)

    Alpha reveal in late 2016/early 2017

    Limited production in late 2017

    Volume production in early 2018
     
  10. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    I think the delayed time table is the most probable and it wouldn't surprise me if gets delayed too.
    Tesla is usually behind schedule so I see no reason to believe that will change. Same goes for multiple models getting unveiled at the same time.
    I don't see that happening. Just not enough resources, both people and funding to make that happen, and too risky.
    There will be enormous pressure on Tesla to ramp up production and complicating that with multiple models doesn't make sense.
    Still I like Red Sage's enthusiasm and hope he is right.
     
  11. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    I have seen some people post projections that no version of Generation III would arrive prior to 2020. I would call that... pessimistic. The people who say it consider that a realistic time frame instead.

    So, yeah... I tend to be rather optimistic about what Tesla Motors will do. My chart with the column labeled 'Delayed' refers to my personal hopes. If it takes that long, it will be right on schedule, and almost a year late, from my point of view.

    I believe that Tesla realized they were going to need a whole lot of batteries a year ago. They had hoped for a total production in 2013 of maybe 15,000 vehicles. People forget that they originally intended to release the Model X in Fall 2013, at least in limited production, so that run would have been contained within the quantity of 15,000. Once they realized that orders were coming in for Model S way faster than they expected, and after the great reviews of Model S, and after the explosion on the stock market, they decided to take care of immediate demand for Model S and push off Model X a bit.

    At first they pushed it to Q1 2014... then Q4 2014... then said everyone would have to wait until 2015. Just so you know, there is no 'problem' with the Model X at all. But the added time, and supply of cash, allows Tesla to make it a better vehicle than it would have been in 2013. That will mean it will have a good chance of being that much more impressive to automobile reviewers, and hopefully garner more Car of the Year honors for Tesla Motors.

    Since Panasonic has finally agreed to support the Gigafactory, and will be delivering batteries in higher quantities in the years that lead up to it, Tesla can plan to move forward. None of this is happening as quickly as Elon, or I, would like. He has always said that Generation III would be comprised of multiple vehicles. He has repeatedly said that to be considered seriously, Tesla must not be a one-hit wonder, a flash in the pan, or a one-car company. He knows that shareholders would be perfectly happy if Tesla were to simply max production at Fremont on the Model S and Model X, and put off Generation III indefinitely. He doesn't care what they think, and I don't blame him.

    "Our Mission: To accelerate the world's transition to electric vehicles." -- Tesla Motors

    That is the goal at hand. Not quick cash. Not selling out to a traditional automobile manufacturer. Not distributing dividends. The path to the goal is through producing a car that directly competes with a market leader and defeating them on their own turf. So that is what Tesla Motors will do. If there can be BMW 3-Series sedans, coupes, and wagons, offered alongside SUVs and all of them in rear-wheel-drive and all-wheel-drive versions, then the same can be done with Tesla Model ≡.
     
  12. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

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    http://www.aftenbladet.no/tv/Se-hele-Aftenbladets-intervju-med-Elon-Musk-3491455.html

    This is an interview earlier TODAY in which Elon says "we're aiming to have the Model 3 in production in 2.5 to 3 years."

    Assuming by "in production" he means the proper final cars are rolling off the line, customers will get them pretty soon after that... that is a window between February 25th 2017 and August 25th 2017.

    Over to you, Red Sage :)
     
  13. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    A long while back I figured with "Tesla padding" on the time frame, it'd be 2018 before we saw a car delivered. I'm still sticking with that. If I were to hedge, maybe a few Sigs go out in December 2017.
     
  14. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    haha, what's happening here is that Elon does not move the amount of time, he keeps it constant while TIME itself moves. So every 6 months or so when it's brought up, he can still say 2-3 years to make it seem within reach and nobody goes back to calculate how long it's actually been. Smooth.

    This whole 2017/2018 time frames sucks. I'll have to get another car before then, probably somewhere is 2016, so it'll have to be a different EV....
     
  15. KD5MDK

    KD5MDK Member

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    I think this is a good description. Schedules slip.
    Something will be delivered in 2017, but it won't be significant to the total market.
     
  16. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    Unless there is a delay.

    My money is on 2018 start of deliveries in the US.

    I'll note that in my calendar. Let's see.
     
  17. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    That pretty much matches my 'Delayed' time frame of March 2017 to July 2017. Like I said, right on time, but about a year late.

    I disagree. The interviews I've seen have gradually lowered the expected time frame for the unveiling and release of Generation III, based upon when he was asked. Reporters have a tendency to twist what he says into their own interpretations though. In the first half of 2013, he said about 4 years. In the first half of 2014, he said about 3 years. In August 2014 he apparently said 2.5-to-3 years. Very consistent.
     
  18. Kofi

    Kofi Member

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    This looks close.
     
  19. Tyl

    Tyl Member

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    Stand by..... solid information will break this week!
     
  20. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    During Thanksgiving week.....doubtful.
     

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