Model 3 to start at 60kWh

[Bokonon]

There is a problem with the arithmetic.
150 men day is 216,000 men minutes

24-hour shifts?! Damn, it's no wonder why the labor activists are in such a tizzy!

With an 8-hour workday:

150 men * 8 hours/day * 60 minutes/hour = 72,000 men*minutes/day
7 sections/module * 2 men * 10 minutes/section = 140 men*minutes/module
72,000 men*minutes/day / 140 men*minutes/battery = ~514 modules/day

514 modules/day / 4 modules/pack = ~129 packs/day
514 modules/day / 75 teams = ~6.9 modules/team*day = ~1.73 packs/team*day

Yeah, this math still seems to be off by an order of magnitude, even if you assume that the phrase "approximately 20 Model 3 battery modules per day" actually meant to refer to completed Model 3 battery packs... but these calculations also assume that all 150 workers are constantly adding cells to sections, that there's no downtime between sections and modules, that the sections are being assembled into modules elsewhere and faster than those modules can be produced, etc. At the end of the day, the number of produced packs is what matters, so I'll go with whatever that number is.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Wait a sec, what I'm hearing is he JUST approved the budget to automate the lines yesterday? And they're cranking out about 20 packs per day now.

How long is it going to take to order millions of dollars of robots and get them up and running? Sounds like the months of July - Whenever the line goes live they'll be lucky to produce 200 cars a week. Seems like this should have been approved months ago - they must have known the Model 3 was coming

Also, the article linked to battery production, but man, I just can't find where it says the Model 3 will have a 60kw battery? Maybe I need more coffee - but can someone point out where I should be looking?

EDIT - Nevermind, found the info on the battery pack size. (Paragraph right above the vid for anyone else looking)

I wouldn't worry too much about it. Tesla has been targeting 5K cars per wk production during Q4 '17 for many months now. The full extent of the $216M will enable the 5K/wk production rate, and we have 4-6 months till Q4 to finish installing all the tools, I don't see any reason to think that can't be done. Also I think the tool installation will happen overtime, assuming the progress is linear, so by Aug/Sep timeframe the battery production will reach ~2.5K cars per wk. Tesla had announced that they're ordering parts at a rate of 1K/wk in July, 2K/wk in Aug, and 4K/wk in Sep, keep in mind this is parts delivery schedule, so the production schedule may lag a little (1-2 wks?) after the parts arrive. This schedule looks like it syncs with the battery production ramp nicely.

 

[RubberToe]

Wait a sec, what I'm hearing is he JUST approved the budget to automate the lines yesterday? And they're cranking out about 20 packs per day now.

How long is it going to take to order millions of dollars of robots and get them up and running? Sounds like the months of July - Whenever the line goes live they'll be lucky to produce 200 cars a week. Seems like this should have been approved months ago - they must have known the Model 3 was coming

I would imagine that once the 2170 cell was built and the thermal characteristic characterized, they finalized the design of the battery modules and the pack. Maybe even using the 55KWh pack Elon previously mentioned. They may very well have upped the capacity to 60KWh in response to the Bolt. So the module/pack needed some tweaking. Then when the design is finished, you hand build a bunch of them for thermal qualification testing in the ovens/coolers to make sure there are no pack level design issues. Then you run some release candidates around with the hand built battery packs to make sure there are then no vehicle interaction issues. Once you do that, then you know *exactly* what the pack will be, and then it's time to figure out how best to automate the pack assembly. Then you order all the required robots to assembly the packs.

There will no doubt be several "pack assembly" lines. So they will build one line first, and get it up and running to verify the robotic assembly process. Once the first line is running, and all the lessons learned, they build up the other assembly lines. At that point the first pack assembly starts running to build for the initial deliveries. Starting at the 1k per week level, then ramping up when the other lines come online after being built and tested.

I don't imagine that many Model 3's destined for customers will have hand built packs. Certainly the handful of July deliveries might. The real Model 3 production ramp up will start when the first automated pack assembly line starts running. You don't hand build something that can be done 10x or 50x faster when automated. It's all coming together, no hand wringing necessary

RT

 

[Marcycharles3]

Interesting that electrek reported that Tesla officials stated the Model 3's base battery would be SMALLER than 60 kWh last year: Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling

What happened since that article was published? The Bolt's official EPA range.

It's possible the batteries are 58-59KW and they are going to badge them as 60. That would mean they are still under 60 as stated. Also As far as efficiency goes compared to the Bolt, Chevrolet tuned them more for efficacy over acceleration whereas Tesla opts more for acceleration. That could explain why a similar size battery is getting similar or lower range numbers despite a much better coefficient of drag.

 

[Booga]

Not to sound negative here but isn't it just as possible that in testing they found they weren't getting to 215 miles will a smaller than 60kw battery pack? The way they've been anti-selling the model 3 I have a hard time they're going to push 240-250 miles which essentially matches the base model S 249 mile range listed on the Tesla site.

Few things:

1) I bet a part of their thought for raising minimum range on the S was to get ahead of the range increase coming with the Model 3.
2) Maybe they will have a further range increase with a move to the 2170 cells that coincides with the Model 3's pricing details.

I would love a 250 mile base range on the 3. That would mean 300 miles is actually possible with a battery upgrade. I'll have a hard time saying no then!

 

[JeffK]

It's possible the batteries are 58-59KW and they are going to badge them as 60. That would mean they are still under 60 as stated. Also As far as efficiency goes compared to the Bolt, Chevrolet tuned them more for efficacy over acceleration whereas Tesla opts more for acceleration. That could explain why a similar size battery is getting similar or lower range numbers despite a much better coefficient of drag.

It's not an ICE so you don't really tune it per se. Tesla and GM are using two different motor technologies and likely different materials so their weights will differ. The typical tradeoffs for a motor are made through gear ratio so you decide between acceleration and top speed. For the Bolt it has a slower acceleration and top speed so it's likely just a much smaller motor.

In fact, the motor in the Bolt is a very tiny permanent magnet motor capable of 150 kW peak power geared to 7.05:1

 

[flamingoezz]

Damn bolt. to keep up with chevy they had to boost the battery size at the expense of having an interior

Interesting that electrek reported that Tesla officials stated the Model 3's base battery would be SMALLER than 60 kWh last year: Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling

What happened since that article was published? The Bolt's official EPA range.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I don't imagine that many Model 3's destined for customers will have hand built packs. Certainly the handful of July deliveries might. The real Model 3 production ramp up will start when the first automated pack assembly line starts running. You don't hand build something that can be done 10x or 50x faster when automated. It's all coming together, no hand wringing necessary

RT

Maybe THAT is why they're doing "closest to Fremont/Tesla/Space X employee" deliveries first. If they're hand-made packs, they KNOW there may be issues. All the more reason to keep things close to home in the initial rollout.

 

[Marcycharles3]

It's not an ICE so you don't really tune it per se. Tesla and GM are using two different motor technologies and likely different materials so their weights will differ. The typical tradeoffs for a motor are made through gear ratio so you decide between acceleration and top speed. For the Bolt it has a slower acceleration and top speed so it's likely just a much smaller motor.

In fact, the motor in the Bolt is a very tiny permanent magnet motor capable of 150 kW peak power geared to 7.05:1

Electric or not they still use a single speed transmission, the size of the single gear will absolutely determine the accreditation/efficiency. A smaller gear you can run more efficiently at speed all things being equal, smaller gear you lose efficiency but gain acceleration, or vice versa lol. either way electric vehicles can still be "tuned" for a certain purpose. Perhaps tuned wasn't the best word however.

 

[JeffK]

Electric or not they still use a single speed transmission, the size of the single gear will absolutely determine the accreditation/efficiency. A smaller gear you can run more efficiently at speed all things being equal, smaller gear you lose efficiency but gain acceleration, or vice versa lol. either way electric vehicles can still be "tuned" for a certain purpose. Perhaps tuned wasn't the best word however.

An electric motor is most efficient at high load for starters. The major trade off people make with gear ratio is speed vs acceleration. If you don't need to have great acceleration it makes more sense to use a smaller motor to keep the load high instead of changing the gear ratio. This also saves on costs which is what they did with the Bolt.

 

[vigge50]

That article have now been removed, now we can only speculate the reason for that

 

[diamond.g]

That article have now been removed, now we can only speculate the reason for that

The YouTube video is gone too.

 

[JeffK]

That article have now been removed, now we can only speculate the reason for that

Must be the work of the Model 3 Bouncer... Rumor has it, if you leak details he will show up at your door with a Starbucks in hand and make you take it down! See the gloves?... That's so he doesn't leave a trace.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Must be the work of the Model 3 Bouncer... Rumor has it, if you leak details he will show up at your door with a Starbucks in hand and make you take it down! See the gloves?... That's so he doesn't leave a trace.

now all I can picture is Wahlberg at the end of The Departed.....

 

[scaesare]

Must be the work of the Model 3 Bouncer... Rumor has it, if you leak details he will show up at your door with a Starbucks in hand and make you take it down! See the gloves?... That's so he doesn't leave a trace.

Firstly: lol....

Secondly, some interesting items in that (new to me) pic:

- Fasteners around edge of headlights
- I'd guess dual forward looking cameras based on mirror cutout
- Something on dash behind center screen near steering wheel... some temporary test instrumentation?

 

[JeffK]

- Something on dash behind center screen near steering wheel... some temporary test instrumentation?

Looks like a classic kill button for autonomous car testing:

Here's a different view:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Looks like a classic kill button for autonomous car testing:

Here's a different view:

Frankly, that button has been on all pre-production cars since ages... nothing to do with autonomous...

That said, this car looks to have the usual AP2 suite of course.

 

[electracity]

That article have now been removed, now we can only speculate the reason for that

I think the base car will be 50-55 kWh and a 215-230 mile range. They don't need to beat the Bolt range with the base model 3. It just needs to be genuinely over 200 miles. Tesla then positions themselves to make some money on the pack upgrade. I think once the major options are available the average selling price will be ~$50K.

It is even possible that they will not offer a battery upgrade on day 1 if they are extremely concerned about model S sales. Although "100 configurations" does seem to indicate a battery choice. 3 colors, 2 battery, winter weather package and 2 rim choices. Does that make 100?

Musk just needs to keep his model 3 promises. He doesn't need to try and give everyone what they hope to get in the base car.

I also think Tesla would be embarrassed if they needed a 60kWh battery in the base car. They are suppose to be the best at EV.

 

[JeffK]

I also think Tesla would be embarrassed if they needed a 60kWh battery in the base car. They are suppose to be the best at EV.

Tesla has never had the most efficient EVs, it's more about performance vs cost in their choice of AC induction. Elon said they were going to have the best car at that price point (not just EV). I wouldn't doubt they move to 60 kWh in the base model. It could have also been another reason to get rid of the S 60

 

[03DSG]

Tesla has never had the most efficient EVs, it's more about performance vs cost in their choice of AC induction.

True. Elon conclusion from his 2007 article:

My conclusion is that DC brushless drives will likely continue to dominate in the hybrid and coming plug-in hybrid markets, and that induction drives will likely maintain dominance for the high-performance pure electrics. The question is what will happen as hybrids become more electrically intensive and as their performance levels increase? The fact that so much of the hardware is common for both drives could mean that we will see induction and DC brushless live and work side by side during the coming golden era of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Induction Versus DC Brushless Motors