Model 3 to start at 60kWh

[Garlan Garner]

I think 56.25 would become 60kW , Tesla usually round up

Wait a min. That's the stock price.

Maybe that's it. The size of the battery will be determined by the stock price.

 

[SageBrush]

I did actually count weight which is why 60/250 < 75/310

~ 2 miles ? ;-)

There's also the energy density increase for the 2170s so likely the weight increase is only going to be between 100-200 lbs.

Energy/volume will improve considerably (20% ??), but much less obvious that energy/kg will improve much. I'm hoping for 5%, which is nowhere near the additional road friction penalty.

 

[JeffK]

~ 2 miles ? ;-)

Energy/volume will improve considerably (20% ??), but much less obvious that energy/kg will improve much. I'm hoping for 5%, which is nowhere near the additional road friction penalty.

JB said the chemistry alone accounted for 15% improvement.

 

[SageBrush]

JB said the chemistry alone accounted for 15% improvement.

reference ?

 

[JeffK]

reference ?

Tesla Motors' (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
July 2014 when speaking of the next gen cells they are going to produce at the Gigafactory.

Tesla Motors' (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Q3 2014 Results -- Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
November 2014 Elon speaks about the tech they need working at the lab level and a 2 - 4 year lead time needed before mass production.

Both instances we know they are talking about 2170s, not current 18650s in S/X.

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla Motors' (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Q3 2014 Results -- Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
November 2014 Elon speaks about the tech they need working at the lab level and a 2 - 4 year lead time needed before mass production.

Both instances we know they are talking about 2170s, not current 18650s in S/X.

Well ... I tried to read the transcript but seeking alpha stopped me at page 2 and I am not going to give them my email. Can you post the relevant paragraph ?

In any case, even if the chemistry improves that dramatically and energy/weight has a concordant increase, this will still be true for both the 60 and 75 kWh pack so it seems reasonable for the 75 kWh pack to weigh 75/60 more. The fractional percentage weight of the car made up by the battery will probably decrease but that is small change to the overall increased road friction.

 

[JeffK]

Well ... I tried to read the transcript but seeking alpha stopped me at page 2 and I am not going to give them my email. Can you post the relevant paragraph ?

In any case, even if the chemistry improves that dramatically and energy/weight has a concordant increase, this will still be true for both the 60 and 75 kWh pack so it seems reasonable for the 75 kWh pack to weigh 75/60 more. The fractional percentage weight of the car made up by the battery will probably decrease but that is small change to the overall increased road friction.

Believe it or not the seeking alpha stuff is all on a single page if you view the source code. I signed up with a fake email to get access for Tesla transcripts.
July:

Colin Langan – UBS
And on the Giga Factory, I mean is the chemistry going to be the same battery chemistry that you're currently using or is that part of the discussions that are going on with Panasonic?

Elon Musk
There are improvements to the chemistry, as well as improvements to the [indiscernible]. So we would expect to see an energy density improvement, and of course a significant cost improvement.

JB, do you want to [indiscernible]?

JB Straubel
Yeah, that's, you know, the cathode and anode materials themselves are next generation, so we're -- I mean we're seeing improvements in the maybe 10% to 15% range on the chemistry itself.

Elon Musk
Yeah, in terms of energy density.

JB Straubel
Energy density. And then, you know, we're also customizing the cell shape and size to further improve the cost efficiency of the cell, and our packaging efficiency.

Elon Musk
Right. We've done a lot of modeling trying to figure out what's the optimal cell size. And it's really not much -- it's not a lot different from where we are right now, but we're sort of in the roughly 10% more diameter, maybe 10% more height. But then the cubic function effectively ends up being, just from a geometry standpoint, probably a third more energy for the cell, if you -- maybe 30%-ish. And then the actual energy density per unit mass increases, so.

JB Straubel
Yeah. Yeah, fundamentally the chemistry of what's inside is what really defines the cost position now. It's often debated what shape and size, but at this point we're developing basically what we feel is the optimum shape and size for the best cost efficiency for an automotive cell.

November:

Elon Musk
... Then with respect to the cathode materials, I think there is a lot of technology improvements that we'll be able to apply to the battery pack and the cathode anode separator, electrolyte, counter production, the whole works and some of these improvements are independent of the others.

But whatever we’ve has to work -- whatever we build out for the Gigafactory has to work at least at the lab level. Let's say this year because we're making monster investments in equipment and there is a certain amount of time of a year or two at least from working at the lab level to working in small scale production and then at least a year or two after that before you can go from small production to mass production.

This is why we're not worried about like being blind-sided by some technology with the Gigafactory, it's because if it doesn't work in the lab right now, there is no point in worrying about it because you can't scale in that timeframe. Everyone and their (indiscernible) is approaching us about technology improvements. I think literally and their (indiscernible) in some cases. JB, do you want to add to that?

JB Straubel
Sure. We're definitely talking to many, many different companies doing cathode technology development, anode and some of the other components including some of those you mentioned. I would be pretty shocked if there were any major improvements that were close enough to commercialization that we haven't been aware of or found out about. So a lot of those improvements are rolled into our thinking and there's great potential there.

Elon Musk
My top advice really for anyone who says they've got some breakthrough battery technologies, please send us a sample cell, okay, don't send us PowerPoint. Just send us one cell that works with all appropriate caveats that would be great. That's really -- that sorts out the nonsense and the claims that aren't actually true. Talk is super cheap; the battery industry has to have more BS in it than any industry I've ever encountered. It's insane