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Model 3: US deliveries suspended til Q4?
- Thread starter vbaker
- Start date
Thomas Edison
Active Member
Just sandbagging the delivery estimate so people would stop calling them about WHERE'S MY DAMN CAR
Shifting US deliveries to Q4 would only make sense if US deliveries would reach 200k (early) in that quarter.
Assuming weekly production at 5k from Q3 and reaching 10k from Q4 would then allow for an additional 60k US deliveries with the full federal tax credit. It would however also require basically zero US deliveries during all of Q3, which seems somewhere between suicidal and impossible.
I've had my 'ready to be designed' for months, and it says 3-5 months for RWD and AWD. P is 2-4 as they are prioritizing those, as we know.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Mine is 2-4 months from yesterday, so no that's not suspending them until Q4. Highly likely I'll take delivery in Q3.
A few days ago, my reservation (for LR, not AWD/P) was showing 3-6 weeks. Then (yesterday?) the day they updated P pricing and added the new paint color it went to 3-5 months. I just went ahead and configured today and it shows my expected window to be Sept - Nov. If it even still matters any more, I was a line waiter and something like 140ish in line at my local Gallery (though the timing was about 2.5 hours after opening in my timezone).
I don't think we can really count on that... are you referring to a target from a year ago? Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018, corrects reservation tally
Things changed a lot since then and I did not see a confirmation from Elon that they still plan for 10k in 2018.
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I configured this morning, and my AWD Model 3 is scheduled for delivery 2nd week of Sept to end of October.
Yes , this is what made me think this.
10k for 12 weeks is 120k. Next quarter another 120k.
It would collect some, not all, of the price sensitive reservation holders.
My educated guess is ~no~ US Teslas in Q3.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Educated guess you say? How do you explain my quote of 2-4 months? 66% chance of being delivered in Q3.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I hope your education was free AND fast
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Joke's on them. Going to add Tesla CS to speed dial, daily "Why's my delivery estimate so many months away!? WHERE'S MY DAMN CAR!!!"
Fair enough. Drunk systems analyst here. All things are systems.
Max volume delivery requires 10k a week. They are not near that right now.
Our delivery estimates went from weeks, to a range that covers Q4.
So postponing the 200k car until October makes a lot of difference to financially sensitive buyers.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
JeffK
Well-Known Member
10K/week will not be possible until the end of Q4. Are you proposing they would postpone to Q1 2019 haha.
It's more than likely they are right at the border of 200k right now. They could have easily hit it in Q2 if they had wanted.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Eh?
Look for 200K domestic deliveries as early as possible next month. Then look for the maximum amount of domestic deliveries through year end.
If anything, international customers will have to be more patient than usual during the next 26 weeks.
More succinctly, “Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.”
Look for 200K domestic deliveries as early as possible next month. Then look for the maximum amount of domestic deliveries through year end.
If anything, international customers will have to be more patient than usual during the next 26 weeks.
More succinctly, “Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.”
