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Model 3: US deliveries suspended til Q4?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by vbaker, Jun 27, 2018.

  1. vbaker

    vbaker Member

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    My configurator had a 4-6 week delivery if I ordered a month ago when production was low.

    Now it says 3-6 months.

    I think they are holding US deliveries until 10k production.
     
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  2. Thomas Edison

    Thomas Edison Active Member

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    Newp
     
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  3. kengchang

    kengchang Member

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    Just sandbagging the delivery estimate so people would stop calling them about WHERE'S MY DAMN CAR
     
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  4. lklundin

    lklundin Active Member

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    Shifting US deliveries to Q4 would only make sense if US deliveries would reach 200k (early) in that quarter.

    Assuming weekly production at 5k from Q3 and reaching 10k from Q4 would then allow for an additional 60k US deliveries with the full federal tax credit. It would however also require basically zero US deliveries during all of Q3, which seems somewhere between suicidal and impossible.
     
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  5. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Mine is 2-4 months from yesterday, so no that's not suspending them until Q4. Highly likely I'll take delivery in Q3.
     
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  6. boaterva

    boaterva Supporting Member

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    I've had my 'ready to be designed' for months, and it says 3-5 months for RWD and AWD. P is 2-4 as they are prioritizing those, as we know.
     
  7. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Mine is 2-4 months from yesterday, so no that's not suspending them until Q4. Highly likely I'll take delivery in Q3.
     
  8. BioSehnsucht

    BioSehnsucht Model 3 LR

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    A few days ago, my reservation (for LR, not AWD/P) was showing 3-6 weeks. Then (yesterday?) the day they updated P pricing and added the new paint color it went to 3-5 months. I just went ahead and configured today and it shows my expected window to be Sept - Nov. If it even still matters any more, I was a line waiter and something like 140ish in line at my local Gallery (though the timing was about 2.5 hours after opening in my timezone).
     
  9. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    #9 Moderatefan, Jun 27, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2018
  10. Lloyd

    Lloyd Well-Known Member

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    I configured this morning, and my AWD Model 3 is scheduled for delivery 2nd week of Sept to end of October.
     
  11. vbaker

    vbaker Member

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    Yes , this is what made me think this.

    10k for 12 weeks is 120k. Next quarter another 120k.

    It would collect some, not all, of the price sensitive reservation holders.

    My educated guess is ~no~ US Teslas in Q3.
     
    • Disagree x 3
  12. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Educated guess you say? How do you explain my quote of 2-4 months? 66% chance of being delivered in Q3.
     
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  13. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    I hope your education was free AND fast
     
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  14. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    Joke's on them. Going to add Tesla CS to speed dial, daily "Why's my delivery estimate so many months away!? WHERE'S MY DAMN CAR!!!"
     
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  15. vbaker

    vbaker Member

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    Fair enough. Drunk systems analyst here. All things are systems.

    Max volume delivery requires 10k a week. They are not near that right now.

    Our delivery estimates went from weeks, to a range that covers Q4.

    So postponing the 200k car until October makes a lot of difference to financially sensitive buyers.

     
  16. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    ...and not where my kids are going.
     
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  17. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    10K/week will not be possible until the end of Q4. Are you proposing they would postpone to Q1 2019 haha.

    It's more than likely they are right at the border of 200k right now. They could have easily hit it in Q2 if they had wanted.
     
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  18. vbaker

    vbaker Member

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    Most certainly not .
     
  19. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    Eh?

    Look for 200K domestic deliveries as early as possible next month. Then look for the maximum amount of domestic deliveries through year end.

    If anything, international customers will have to be more patient than usual during the next 26 weeks.

    More succinctly, “Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.”
     
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  20. vbaker

    vbaker Member

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    THAT is a good topic for discussion.

    When they expect 10k production is my estimate for when they release the 200k car.

    My hope is Q3 for 10k. Your estimate is also probable.
     

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