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Model 3 Used Car Market Observations (From Arizona)

1LE McQueen

Mar 22, 2019
Since early January, I've been actively looking for a used Tesla Model 3. I am a serious buyer ready to move once the right Model 3 shows up. The difficult thing is that no one's really selling at this time, as is to be expected I suppose. It'll be interesting to see how the demand of this car changes once the Model Y and Cybertruck become available.

Here are some observations I have as of 1/14/2020:
1. There are Model 3's at every other stoplight, but new used cars ads are extremely difficult to come by.
2. My local dealer has 0 inventory, new and used
3. There are some jokers who think their car is worth 5 - 10k more than KBB value, and they're not selling.
EX 1: 2018 Blue Model 3 with FSD - KBB is lower 40's, he wants 49. Posted for over 10 days now, still for sale. Has 20k miles.
EX 2: 2018 Gray Performance M3 - KBB is mid to high 40's, he wants 59k. Also not sold and approaching 1 week.

4. The well-priced cars are gone within a day or two. When I first started my search, there was a black LR RWD for 41k. I slept on it due to inexperience and it sold. A couple of days ago there was another black AWD, no FSD, 19" wheels for 44,800. That ad was taken down one day later.

My budget is 44 (45 if I really push it). I'm looking for LR RWD or AWD with FSD. It'll be interesting to see what comes in the next few months. The dealer also has my information and I asked them to keep me informed of trade-ins or CPOs (if they ever actually get any).

I'll do my best to keep this thread updated. Another note to point out is that Arizona private party sales ARE NOT TAXED.
  • Informative
Reactions: mtndrew1
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Devil’s Advocate
Dec 31, 2019
You’re not going to see anything fantastic in your part of the country TBH especially with CA opening up carpool stickers to used market (low income)

KBB is BS also: These cars are worth what the market will bear and everyone has their price. If someone gave me 60K for my P3D+ I’d sell it yesterday.
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Reactions: 1LE McQueen


Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jan 26, 2016
Palmdale, CA
There are some jokers who think their car is worth 5 - 10k more than KBB value, and they're not selling.
EX 1: 2018 Blue Model 3 with FSD - KBB is lower 40's,

KBB is not going to be correct for a 2018 with FSD because their site only lists EAP as an option.

When I am shopping for a used Tesla, I subscribe to a couple months of the historical data from ev-cpo. Then I at least know what Tesla has been getting for the cars they sell.

1LE McQueen

Mar 22, 2019
Well folks with all due respect, KBB supposedly gets their values by assessing what people are willing to pay. There's a reason why the two posters I mentioned above are still trying to sell their cars whilst others are selling like hot cakes (assuming they're all in the same condition).

I understand it's a general guide so I wont bank too heavily on it, but I found the info below to be informative.

What are Kelley Blue Book Values?

Are Kelly Blue Book Values Accurate And Reliable?
Are Kelley Blue Book Values Accurate and Reliable?


The Kelley Blue Book—and it's equally popular web site—is one of the most trusted guides for automobile pricing, used by those who are buying or selling cars.

Kelly assesses the following values: 1) private party value; 2) trade-in value; 3) suggested retail value; and 4) certified pre-owned (CPO) value.

Kelly determines Blue Book values by analyzing pricing info from real-world used car prices, as well as industry developments, economic conditions, and location.

Potential problems include a delay as price info is assessed, the consumer tendency to overrate the product being offered, and a mismatch between wholesale values listed by Kelly and the prices used by dealers, who access special industry-only pricing info.

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