Model 3 vs Model S Specs Speculation

[jandkw]

This is a great discussion. It has gone slightly off the rails from the title description but into more interesting territory.

So will the Model III have more performance chops than the Model S? Some are saying yes, and some are saying no. How about both?

I expect the base model to be slower than the 60 kWh Model S. Say 6 to 6.5 seconds 0-60 MPH. I would still hope for decent EV chops at the 40-60 MPH range and it will still blow away any ICE out there.

I hope and expect there to be more choices with a car that needs to appeal to 500K worldwide customers. A base model with 6 to 6.5 seconds, larger pack/better performance version 5 to 5.5 seconds, and official Performance version with 4 to 4.5 seconds which would fit with the Model S in possibilities. There might even be room for a Super Sport version with a 3.5 to 4 second 0-60.

I truly expect there to be a Model S 2.0 to come within a year of the Model III with the newer batteries for both increased performance and range. The car will be due for a refresh right about that time or possibly before the Model III hits production. I'd think that Tesla would want the Model III batteries thoroughly tested before they reach full production on the Model III in cars.

I can't imagine the base range being above 200. I'll expect an EPA of 180 to 200 for the car. Just because of cost I can't expect any more out of Tesla for the base model. I like the pricing and of course options will add to those numbers. The larger pack should add an extra 80 to 100 miles to the range.

I do agree that the Model S 2.0 will be there within a year of Model III. New model year takes place about 5-6 years in the auto industry. I believe MS 2.0 will be more luxurious with more options (better seats, better interior, etc.). If Tesla follows the BMW strategy in performance, the Model III will be just as fast 0-60-wise as MS. Model III may be even faster due to lighter weight. This is proven to be true by BMW that with the same engine used in 3-series it performs better than the 5 and 7-series.

 

[igotzzoom]

Actual advertising will be needed in this case also, contributing to the cars cost and subsequent base specs, options, etc.

Yes, but Tesla has a passionate and creative enough fan base that they could probably basically crowd-source the creative aspect, and do selective placement on niche channels (i.e. Science Channel, Nat Geo) and tech blogs. They've got a long way to go until they're in Camry/Accord territory, so I don't think they'd have to do much paid placement until they're on to the Gen IV model.

 

[Teslawisher]

Yes, but Tesla has a passionate and creative enough fan base that they could probably basically crowd-source the creative aspect, and do selective placement on niche channels (i.e. Science Channel, Nat Geo) and tech blogs. They've got a long way to go until they're in Camry/Accord territory, so I don't think they'd have to do much paid placement until they're on to the Gen IV model.

Absolutely. No need for 20 ads a day on multiple channels during prime-time. But, some strategically placed advertising will need to be done to reach "the masses" (that would otherwise be looking at a 3-series, C-class, A4...) that aren't currently aware of Tesla. And that cost could cut into what is available in base model vs. available options.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Absolutely. No need for 20 ads a day on multiple channels during prime-time. But, some strategically placed advertising will need to be done to reach "the masses" (that would otherwise be looking at a 3-series, C-class, A4...) that aren't currently aware of Tesla. And that cost could cut into what is available in base model vs. available options.

Remember that by 2016/2017/2018 Tesla will also have a more extensive Supercharger network and will have sold more Model S/X so there will be more brand awareness.

If there isn't any significant competition, then given the higher-volume price point, pent-up demand and enthusiasm from the public, and media desperation for content, I'd expect the Model 3 to garner a huge amount of coverage and visibility without any paid advertising. Just keep the reviews coming, and make sure people they're enthusiastic about getting people into the cars for a test drive.

 

[TEG]

A common approach is to offer the base/regular versions first ( get price interest going ) and then add performance variations later on to upsell and renew interest.
I suspect a "Model E/3 performance/sport" version might not be available at first.

Similar things happened with Roadster and Model S.

 

[Grendal]

A common approach is to offer the base/regular versions first ( get price interest going ) and then add performance variations later on to upsell and renew interest.
I suspect a "Model E/3 performance/sport" version might not be available at first.

Similar things happened with Roadster and Model S.

It's possible, but I wouldn't expect that. They might announce the Performance version later but I expect it to be available to the Signature buyers from day 1 just like the Model S.

 

[CHGolferJim]

It's possible, but I wouldn't expect that. They might announce the Performance version later but I expect it to be available to the Signature buyers from day 1 just like the Model S.

What do you suppose the Signature bundle will include?

 

[strider]

I haven't read the whole thread but why do you not think the Model 3 will out-perform Model S? The BMW M4 has a faster 0-60 than the M5 for instance yet they still sell M5's. Some people just need/want a certain size car. Keep in mind that Model 3 will be a range of cars from $35k up to (potentially) $100k. So no the base Model 3 won't outperform a Model S but the Performance model certainly will. I'm expecting an AWD Perf Model 3 to be pretty close to 3.0 0-60. Think about a car that weighs 800 lbs less than Model S w/ twice the power.....

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A common approach is to offer the base/regular versions first ( get price interest going ) and then add performance variations later on to upsell and renew interest.
I suspect a "Model E/3 performance/sport" version might not be available at first.

Similar things happened with Roadster and Model S.

Huh? Performance Model S was available from Day 1. P85+ came along later but that was just suspension updates. Drivetrain is the same. Likewise on the Roadster (this is from my memory and may be wrong) the 1.5's are pretty equivalent performance-wise to the 2.0-2.5 Sport and so you can look at it like they "added" a base model and used that as a way to charge more for the Sport.

Performance/high end models generate the highest profit margins. Why wouldn't Tesla want to sell a bunch of $100k Model 3's in the beginning vs only $35k Model 3's?

 

[Tasdevil]

I haven't read the whole thread but why do you not think the Model 3 will out-perform Model S?...Keep in mind that Model 3 will be a range of cars from $35k up to (potentially) $100k. So no the base Model 3 won't outperform a Model S but the Performance model certainly will. I'm expecting an AWD Perf Model 3 to be pretty close to 3.0 0-60. Think about a car that weighs 800 lbs less than Model S w/ twice the power.....

It's possible the base gen3 will out preform the base modelS.
Battery density will be better, so less batteries for same range means less weight and smaller car means less weight and less weight means better economy.
It's a multiplying factor.
All which helps lower the price and improves performance. But if it doesn't lower the price enough then maybe performance may get cut back a little. From Elons interviews it seems like it's not really something he wants to do.
The 2 keys for tesla so far have always been performance and range. Why change something that's working?

 

[igotzzoom]

Regardless, I don't expect to be disappointed. It's going to be way higher-performance, more stylish and more premium than the Leaf, Focus Electric, or any other equivalent currently on the road. I'm certain of that.

 

[Tasdevil]

Regardless, I don't expect to be disappointed. It's going to be way higher-performance, more stylish and more premium than the Leaf, Focus Electric, or any other equivalent currently on the road. I'm certain of that.

Absolutely.
Tesla is the only one I know that is building a gigafactory so they will have the battery monopoly for quite a while. Maybe forever if they sell batteries and power trains to other car companies.

 

[Red Sage]

You need the have products that offer tangible differences to warrant the different costs and hierarchy of the models.

No. You are using old school ICE protectionist sales logic. There is no reason to protect sales of the Tesla Model S. People who want it, will buy it. As long as people in the US are buying 20,000+ Tesla Model S per year and under 15,000 each of the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, BMW 7-Series, or AUDI 8, it won't matter one whit how much more capable the Tesla Model ☰ may be. People buy the car that fits their lifestyle best.

A Tesla Motors product must drive like a Tesla. It is up to Toyota to build a fully electric Camry that drives like a Camry. Tesla Motors builds compelling electric vehicles that put performance, style, and utility at the forefront of their design. There is no reason to change that identity. Ever.

 

[ecarfan]

It's possible the base gen3 will out preform the base modelS.
Battery density will be better, so less batteries for same range means less weight and smaller car means less weight and less weight means better economy.

Don't neglect the fact that the 2017 Model S will be using the same batteries (individual cells) as the 2017 Model 3 and since the S is a much bigger car it can accommodate a larger pack. And we don't know if by then Tesla will put a more powerful motor in the S so that the 3 isn't quicker (since it will be lighter).

Lots of variables.

 

[Red Sage]

I can't imagine the base range being above 200.

Let's presume that the base version of the Tesla Model ☰ will use a 60 kWh battery pack, and will weigh 80% as much as the Tesla Model S 60. That car had an EPA rated range of 208 miles. Divide that number by five, you get 41.6 miles. Multiply that by six, you get 249.6 miles. I believe that a Tesla Model ☰ 60 will have an EPA rated range of 250 miles.

The larger the battery capacity you use, the more power can be delivered consistently to the electric motor. So there is no reason to limit performance with an electric vehicle. They do not work like ICE cars, which penalize you for having more power on tap. With an electric vehicle it is always your decision just how economical it will be in operation.

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Actual advertising will be needed in this case also, contributing to the cars cost and subsequent base specs, options, etc.

I am vehemently opposed to advertising of Tesla Motors products. It simply is not necessary. If they were to crank out cars to sit on huge lots and hope someone would come by to purchase them, they would need to advertise. Just like shoe stores. And jewelry stores. And anyone else that is trying to sell you something you don't want, or need, to buy.

They will never need to Advertise. Ever.

One thing I've pointed out previously is that this is a specific part of Tesla's strategy for a very good reason. As long as they do not advertise, they cannot be charged with false advertising. Result? The Federal Trade Commission is on Tesla's side, in spirit anyway, instead of investigating them on bogus charges.

If your sales are going down, because you aren't advertising, that means you are doing something wrong.

Tesla posts blogs, photos, and videos online. Tesla sends out press releases to major media outlets. Tesla loans out vehicles for review by magazines. Elon Musk meets with Customers, face-to-face. Elon goes to public speaking engagements. Elon grants interviews to anyone and everyone. Tesla has Superchargers. All of this is marketing. Marketing is better than advertising.

Advertising is transient, frivolous, ignored. Marketing is salient, informative, absorbed. The primary intent behind all that Tesla does is to make sure potential Customers are educated. Advertising educates no one, it only obfuscates. Tesla's Marketing illuminates.

 

[Red Sage]

Absolutely. No need for 20 ads a day on multiple channels during prime-time.

No print ads. No radio ads. No television ads. NONE.

But, some strategically placed advertising will need to be done to reach "the masses" (that would otherwise be looking at a 3-series, C-class, A4...) that aren't currently aware of Tesla.

No. Anyone who is looking at those cars, and doesn't already know about Tesla Motors, can buy those vehicles instead. They will learn the error of their ways in relatively short order. There will be plenty of Customers from all those manufacturers, who know enough about the Tesla Model ☰ to be curious enough to take a test drive. Once they do, they'll be infected. Permanently.

And that cost could cut into what is available in base model vs. available options.

Advertising costs way too much money. It is much more effective to make sure that Tesla Motors vehicles appear on television shows rather than in television commercials. Their cars are just futuristic enough that producers will ask to use them. There will be no need to pay a 'promotional consideration' fee to sponsor a show by providing them with Teslas to drive, ride in, or have appear in the background of exterior scenes. Zero cost marketing beats paid advertising.

You want to know what Tesla should do for the masses? Make sure that there are around 20 HPWCs installed outside each and every NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS, and NBA facility across all of North America by Fall 2015. Do the same for sports facilities for NCAA in major markets. Put them in preferred parking areas with easy entry access. Maybe even set them up with valet service. I suspect that LEVI's Stadium will need about 100 of them...

Word of mouth will be fine. Early adopters will multiply like wild rabbits in heat. Tesla Grins will spread from sea to shining sea. Every Tesla owner will sell at least three more -- without even trying hard. Tesla is trying to blaze a path toward replacing all ICE vehicles everywhere. Because of that, they don't need your repeat business. They just need you to be happy with their cars. Happy enough that you recommend them to anyone and everyone with opposable thumbs and an IQ that crests an order of magnitude above their sneaker size.

 

[Trev Page]

Their cars are just futuristic enough that producers will ask to use them.

True! In the first episode of "Extant" the new SciFi show with Halle Berry they used the white Model X as the family car. Check out the screen grabs for proof.

 

[Teslawisher]

As thick as I can be at time, I do believe I get what you're saying Red Sage. No advertising. Got it. You're certainly entitled to your opinion.

 

[ecarfan]

For the foreseeable future I think it is clear that no "traditional" advertising is needed. TV, radio, print media ads are a waste of money for a production-constrained company like Tesla. Even newer forms of advertising like search engine and other web-based ads are unnecessary. As Red Sage has pointed out, Tesla currently receives more than enough publicity -- for now -- from online and traditional media, social marketing and just viral buzz (i.e. word of mouth).

There will eventually come a time when Tesla has actual competition, probably in 3 to 5 years. That's not to say that other companies will be making better EVs than Tesla, but they will likely be making roughly comparable EVs. At that point Tesla may have to formally devote some resources to ramping up their marketing efforts to educate people about the differences between Tesla EVs and other EVs.

It's certainly true that right now only a small fraction of the car-buying public has any real understanding of what Tesla is offering. But that's okay because the Model S is a very expensive car and they are selling them far faster than they can make them. Once the Model 3 has been out for a few years things may be different and some additional educational effort may be required but, that won't involve traditional advertising. Changing decades of ingrained habits about what a car is and how you fuel it is hard for many people no matter how obvious the advantages may seem to the early adopters.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Completely agree with you ecar, differentiation will eventually be required for certain customer targets. It depends on what the specs and price point of the Model 3 end up being, and when the roughly comparable competition arrives, as to whether it will be needed for Model 3 or later cars. I suppose the definition of advertising is changing with new media. BMW does some advertising to a generally car-astute audience, but my top of mind impression is that most of it is new model and general stuff to maintain overall image rather than to promote specific series or models. I suppose if GF is running full-bore 2 years after launch such that the backlog is minimal, Tesla may boost promotion to maximize share. Certainly if BMW ever thinks the Model 3 could actually be a "3 series killer" they will do something major to try to stop that from happening which Tesla would probably have to respond to. One doesn't see much if any advertising for Mercedes S Class or BMW 5 and 7 series.

 

[vinnie97]

A 300-mile range capability in the Model 3? Say that it's so!