Model 3 vs. Model S Wars

[Mattzilla]

I thought everyone said that people only wanted hatchbacks, and that a real sedan wouldn't sell.

Seems like people are fine with a real sedan....

There are a few things I've never cared about in cars since I came from poverty and never had the luxury of caring about them. 0-60 speed, aesthetics, and hatchback/trunk are among the top 3, yet people talk about those things constantly on forums. For me the only things that really matter outside of price are range, technology, and reliability.

 

[Destiny1701]

I disagree with this. I think the model 3 stands up just fine against the other cars listed without considering the drivetrain. The trunk space is just about the same, perhaps a bit bigger if you count the frunk. Not sure what you have against the front bumper, I like it. I'm not sure what you consider sporty, I think the lines of the 3 look great. I think its one of the best looking cars I've seen in a while.
As you state, all personal opinion I guess.

I also think the interior of the model 3 blows the competition away as well. (but that's another thread)

As mentioned personal opinion maybe just used to the S lines lol. I'm sure the 3 will be great.
As an aside not particularly fond of the X shape as well as it's like a BMW X6...look of the X5 without the utility lol.

Interior time will tell

 

[cantanko]

This is very subjective based on my circumstances. I ordered a 75D with as many options as I could get at the end of May - here's why:

• I live in the UK and RHD variants are looking to be around 18 to 24 months out. I don't have it within me to wait that long. I'm not sure my daily driver does either!
  
• I'm a total geek, and the bonkers level of over-provisioning of pretty much everything in the S appeals to my inner geek.
• I've owned a Mini (one of the originals), and driven many cars with a central speedo. I still like my instrument cluster, again because geek, and just due to personal preference.
  
• My current daily driver is a 2006 Kia Sorento. Weekend cars have been an RX-7 FD, RX-8 PZ, Celica GT-Four ST205, a 1983 Pontiac Trans-Am (!), a Dakar 4x4, a Dutton Phaeton and assorted other weird stuff. I'm keeping the Sorento as it's essentially a family pet and it's great at towing stuff over muddy fields, but that facility aside, the Model S has a surprising amount of character and I've found it disproportionately engaging for what is essentially a large executive car with a rocket up its backside. It takes many of the characteristics of the turbo nuttermobiles I've owned and pairs them with boring, mealy-mouthed sensibleness without letting either influence the other, giving you a Harvey Twoface of cars.
  
• I reasonably frequently shift large bits of equipment around the place. A sedan-style trunk just won't cut it and the kind of off-roading I do would ruin an X pretty quickly!
  
• I don't need the range: I typically do perhaps 50 miles a day at a stretch.
• Again, very subjectively, I prefer the looks of the facelift S to all of the other Tesla vehicles.
• I'm not a small chap - the bigger the seat the better!
  
• I love the power liftgate, powered doorhandles, active louvres etc. again because geek.
• It's a halo car. I've wanted one since they were first released. The model 3 is a superb thing, and I originally had one reserved. Then I made the mistake of having a test drive
• In Musk I trust. I like the guy. Is he completely sane? Probably not. None of the most intelligent, interesting people I've met during the course of my life so far have been. In purchasing an S, which is I feel his... uh... eccentricity made real, I feel I'm supporting his moonshots in some small way.

So no, not a 3 for me. Nearly, but not quite! And a 3 vs S war? Not a chance. Horses for courses - two very different cars for different market segments, and whilst I'm sure they'll each poach some of the other's business, the main thing is the choice now exists.

To be honest, I find it's the simple existance of that choice that is the most impressive thing of all.

 

[R.S]

Elon is quoted as such.

Elon Musk confirms Model 3 reservations have surged to over half a million

They aren't anti selling it with the pricing of their options, is what I meant.

And trying to not sell it, isn't exactly what most see as anti-selling, even though it is a debatable term.

They aren't trying to loose reservation holders, they are just not trying to get more of them.

 

[EV-lutioin]

I'm guessing Tesla has already had this conversation amongst themselves many times and they either think it is a non-issue or they already have a plan to address it. Moving forward the most critical issue for Tesla is to make sure the Model 3 is profitable and plentiful.

 

[Hey_Hey]

I don't own a Tesla at all, but I am in the market. Despite the Model 3 coming out, I'm still looking at the Model S75 as the car for me for a couple reasons. First, and most importantly, is the size. I intend to make this a family car (two adults and three kids) to travel between states and I simply need the additional room in the trunk, cabin, and frunk. Secondly, I like the looks of the Model S more. This is highly subjective, but I think the Model S is just proportioned better, and I prefer the integrated screen and binnacle display that it has. I agree that there needs to be an interior refresh, but I am not someone who thinks the interior of the Model S analogous to the interior of a Camry.

I believe people are making too much about the Model 3 LR range vs the Model S 75 range. As long as there is a range of 225 miles or so, the process of getting between Superchargers is pretty simple. If I have to stop on a 500 mile trip an extra 15 minutes to charge doesn't matter that much to me.

I do, however, get the problems that Tesla is now facing. If I weren't in the market for a big car that can carry all five of us I would probably choose the less expensive Model 3. Tesla has already been "lowering" the price of the Model S by including commonly desired options as standard (SAS and many of the features in the PUP). This has effectively lowered the price for many people. I can also envision them getting rid of the RWD 75 and lowering the price of 75D to that of the current RWD 75. The removal of the RWD 75 may also coincide with re-introduction of the 85D for a similar price as the current RWD75 or 75D.

Long term, I wonder if the best strategy is to have:
-Model 3 be in the 30s-40s base with options leading to total prices in the 40s and 50s
-Model S have a base in the 50s-60s with options leading to a total price in the 60s-70s
-Halo Sedan with a base in the 80s and optioned price in the 90s.

That would mimic the BMW 3/5/7 or the Mercedes C/E/S.

 

[RogerHScott]

I think they're going to see some serious cannibalization.

Not as long as M3s are only trickling out. The long ramp-up of M3 production buys them a fair bit of time to "fortress" MS/MX.

 

[EV-lutioin]

It's possible that all the publicity surrounding the Model 3 launch will draw new customers for Model S/X. Keep in mind that many people have never heard of Tesla (I know, right?) and the M3 launch has put tons of positive news about Tesla in every newspaper in America. Our tiny little daily paper had quarter page articles about Tesla/M3 three days in a row this week!

 

[Spidy]

75 kWh Model S sales will plummet but Tesla doesn't mind it because they will hit higher profit margins on the Model 3 than the Model S because the Model 3 production line is more automated and the car is much easier to produce. They need to completely redesign the Model S to make it easier to manufacture and they need a completely new Model S production line that is more automated.

These things will take 3-4 years. In the meantime, they will just discontinue versions that don't sell well. In fact, I predicted they would discontinue the 75 before they did. See my message here from a few months ago. Here is a new prediction: They will discontinue the Model S 75D too.

I agree with you on the Model 3 being better value, but I think Tesla cares about Model S sales, that's why Elons keeps taking about it all the time.

And I disagree that they discontinue the models that don't sell. The 60kWh battery was incredible popular before it got phase out. And the 75 RWD is also rather popular, at least I would not call 1/3 of 75kWh battery cars sold as rear wheel drive as unpopular.



I think the main reason they discontinue them is to streamline production and to make the base model a better deal. For example the 75kWh base Model S range looks better than the 60kWh base ranged compared to a Model 3.
If they end up lowering the price of the 75D to the 75S when they discontinue it, more people who want a AWD Model 3 might jump on it.

 

[Aieukl378]

I don't own a Tesla at all, but I am in the market. Despite the Model 3 coming out, I'm still looking at the Model S75 as the car for me for a couple reasons. First, and most importantly, is the size. I intend to make this a family car (two adults and three kids) to travel between states and I simply need the additional room in the trunk, cabin, and frunk. Secondly, I like the looks of the Model S more. This is highly subjective, but I think the Model S is just proportioned better, and I prefer the integrated screen and binnacle display that it has. I agree that there needs to be an interior refresh, but I am not someone who thinks the interior of the Model S analogous to the interior of a Camry.

I believe people are making too much about the Model 3 LR range vs the Model S 75 range. As long as there is a range of 225 miles or so, the process of getting between Superchargers is pretty simple. If I have to stop on a 500 mile trip an extra 15 minutes to charge doesn't matter that much to me.

I do, however, get the problems that Tesla is now facing. If I weren't in the market for a big car that can carry all five of us I would probably choose the less expensive Model 3. Tesla has already been "lowering" the price of the Model S by including commonly desired options as standard (SAS and many of the features in the PUP). This has effectively lowered the price for many people. I can also envision them getting rid of the RWD 75 and lowering the price of 75D to that of the current RWD 75. The removal of the RWD 75 may also coincide with re-introduction of the 85D for a similar price as the current RWD75 or 75D.

Long term, I wonder if the best strategy is to have:
-Model 3 be in the 30s-40s base with options leading to total prices in the 40s and 50s
-Model S have a base in the 50s-60s with options leading to a total price in the 60s-70s
-Halo Sedan with a base in the 80s and optioned price in the 90s.

That would mimic the BMW 3/5/7 or the Mercedes C/E/S.

Whichever you choose ya can't go wrong with a Tesla. I went up a down the East Coast when my S was a 60 w/206 range and you're dead on when you say"As long as there is a range of 225 miles or so, the process of getting between Superchargers is pretty simple".

 

[yeahsci]

Competition is always a good thing. But usually it's company A's product vs. company B's product. What could possibly be better than some friendly Tesla vs. Tesla competition?

Personally, I had two Model 3s on order from day one. The 3 was going to be my first Tesla. Two months ago I converted one of my Model 3 reservations into a Model S. I did this knowing just about every detail on the Model 3 and I have no regrets. I look forward to S+3 living together in harmony!

 

[Saghost]

I disagree with this. I think the model 3 stands up just fine against the other cars listed without considering the drivetrain. The trunk space is just about the same, perhaps a bit bigger if you count the frunk. Not sure what you have against the front bumper, I like it. I'm not sure what you consider sporty, I think the lines of the 3 look great. I think its one of the best looking cars I've seen in a while.
As you state, all personal opinion I guess.

I also think the interior of the model 3 blows the competition away as well. (but that's another thread)

It seems like an attractive car to me, too. The nose says Porsche to me, though it doesn't quite have the bulges. I wasn't too sure about the oversize greenhouse, but on the whole it's sleeker and more attractive than the others it competes with, if not quite as attractive as the S.

Of course, I went with the X instead for a bunch of practical reasons and fancy features despite thinking it isn't as attractive as the S, and I don't regret it one bit.

Not sure what to make of the interior - I'll probably have to sit in one before I decide. It's certainly unique, and it stands out from the crowd. Hopefully the compromises involved work out well overall.

 

[brkaus]

This isn't a war. The two cars will level out. Tesla will figure out how to maintain margins selling both cars. The price ranges will likely overlap and that won't matter either.

Ideally, they redesign the S so it can be produced on the same line (assuming it isn't possible now).

Tesla's only risk right now is that S slows down too quickly before the 3 ramps with people sitting on the sideline. Deposits don't make them much money. That is why they need to keep improving the S, to draw in more sideline folks.

Personally, I'd like an S and a 3. The 3 for one of us to commute and the S for road trips (and commuting). When we go on a weekend getaway, our S is filled to the top! And I really don't want an SUV.

 

[Saghost]

Tesla's only risk right now is that S slows down too quickly before the 3 ramps with people sitting on the sideline. Deposits don't make them much money. That is why they need to keep improving the S, to draw in more sideline folks.

S and X share the same line and most of the same components, and it seems like they've finally gotten most of the kinks out of the X (and they sold more Xs than Ss last month, for the first time ever.)

If the 3 release news leads to a surge in X sales, they could probably survive okay through the ramp with greatly reduced S sales if they need to - and the Y is still such a distant figure it isn't likely to affect X sales.

I am expecting Tesla to do an interior overall of the S and X soon, adding more luxury features, and of course Xavier and 2170 cell packs are both probably coming within the next six months too.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The problem with this kind of comparison is it's comparing the old versus the new.

I find it hard to believe that Tesla doesn't have a massive upgrade in store for the Model S to justify the large cost difference.

 

[RogerHScott]

I'm sure Elon Musk super appreciates your sage advice and and hopefully sees your posts in time to fix the incredibly outdated Model S before it's too late...

No, no, it's too late. He's abandoning his foolish automotive dream and pursuing some boyhood fantasy involving rockets or something. Right now he's bitter, but as the years pass he'll come to appreciate having been shown the light, however cruelly.

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

Model S Rules, Model 3 Drools!

or.. something. who cares, long as you buy a Tesla!

 

[Peter3334]

@sandpiper, I added you to my ignore list for being manipulative. I wish you good luck.

When I made those predictions, they were not obvious and people disagreed with me. The message is still here if people care to read. Somebody was suggesting Tesla would bring back the 70. It was not obvious at all they would discontinue the 75 soon. It was the opposite.

Similarly, when I predicted Tesla would discontinue the 60 soon, people didn't agree with me either. Here is my message. In the previous message, the person says Tesla will continue to have a Model S at $60K range. That was actually the reason why I explained in detail why this would not happen and why they would get rid of the 60 soon.

If others want to talk more about predictions, I recommend this thread: Prediction Thread - "You Called It". I don't always take the pro Model 3 side of predictions. For example, most people were expecting HUD, I predicted no HUD. Most people were expecting more than Bolt's 238 mi range with base version, I predicted 218 miles EPA. I have also recently started a predictions competition and I welcome any topics you think we should include. Check out my thread here: Tesla Predictions Competition. But of course, you must not be on my ignore list because otherwise, I won't see your messages.

Troy ... You are to be congratulated or your accurate predictions! Please keep 'em coming!

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Peter3334. Thanks. Here are a few things I would expect to see.

1. Model S and X will switch from AC induction motors to permanent magnet motors like the Model 3, once Tesla uses up the existing inventory. This means 2% range increase on the highway and 8% in the city. Therefore EPA rated range will increase by 5%. I expect Model S 100D's EPA rated range to increase from 335 mi to 352 and Model S 75D's from 259 to 272 miles. Some people think permanent magnet motors don't have as much torque. This is not correct. Check out this slideshow.
2. Tesla will indeed discontinue the Model S 75 by the end of this year like they said they would here. My guess is, they are doing this because it allows them to drop the prices of the other Model S trim levels without reducing the overall Model S gross margin. Tesla is at 27.9% gross margin. They are aiming to reach to 30% eventually, maybe in 2 years. The Model 3 will be at 25% in mid-2018.
3. AP2.0 and AP2.5 will do driver present fully self-driving in the city and on the highway. By FSD I mean you enter an address and the car takes you there. AP2.5 will also do driverless fully self-driving in the city.
4. Model 3 performance version will have 3.1s 0-60 and the price will be $74,000 before options.