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Model 3 was 4th best selling car in March 2021

btc1k

Member
Jan 18, 2021
224
105
Bristol
Be interesting to see if the grant removal significantly slows those sales from now on.
I doubt it, the BIK tax makes the car attractive for business and fleets and that made up circa 70% of new car demand in 2020.

The market of people who could afford a Tesla but now won't because its £3k more expensive is probably quite small.

I think the 3 still represents extremely good value for what it is. That might change over the next few years but not quickly.
 

browellm

Member
Oct 4, 2019
372
313
Notts
I disagree, think it will be quite significant. £3k represents quite a steep monthly increase on finance.

Don't forget, it isn't what necessarily what people can "afford". Many car schemes are hard capped on an arbitrary figure and it will push the car out of those too.
 

btc1k

Member
Jan 18, 2021
224
105
Bristol
I disagree, think it will be quite significant. £3k represents quite a steep monthly increase on finance.

Don't forget, it isn't what necessarily what people can "afford". Many car schemes are hard capped on an arbitrary figure and it will push the car out of those too.
There was a lease deal out yesterday that was £8 more than the cheapest one I found on an LR when it had the grant applied.
 
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Llama.

Member
Jan 25, 2021
94
40
Leeds, UK
It’s great to see this for the M3 but also the market share increase of BEVs. Thanks for posting this Mark.

I’d be interested to see what this is like in a year when the ID3/ ID4 and MachE begin to have some more availability. I’d love to see BEV cars take 10% market share in 2021.

This Zero Emission Vehicle term is starting to shown up more. Think it’s a government thing as if they are still holding out for some hydrogen car sales. All ZEV cars get the green flash number plates not just BEVs.

The loss of £3k PICG will probably slow things down for Q2 and Q3. For people planning on a £500 monthly payment for there M3, 6 more months of savings is needed to find that extra £3k deposit. It would have for me anyway.
 
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Yev000

Active Member
May 3, 2019
1,217
790
Knaphill
Tesla is going to sell every car it makes for quite a while so the grant wont mean a thing. They have ~ 20% margin on 3s, which will get bigger when Berlin is ramped for Europe (giga casting etc.)

Would not be surprised if the price is lowered next year.
 

GeorgeSymonds

Member
Mar 16, 2018
927
528
UK
The same chart shows Tesla didn’t make the top 10 in the quarter. It’s easy to get carried away looking at individual charts, JATO have a chart that shows Tesla sales fell 9% across Europe in 2020 on the year before.. there's always a chart that shows you what you want to see. I think is pretty mixed out there.

There were also probably a lot of people who opted into salary sacrifice for 3 years and got one. but is that repeatable each year? Residuals may also soften as the longer the car has been selling the greater the used market is, we're already seeing that on the used market where cars in the first year were traded virtually at the new price, and since then there's been a steady and not unrealistic depreciation, that will start to filter into the costs in addition to the grant going.
 

btc1k

Member
Jan 18, 2021
224
105
Bristol
The same chart shows Tesla didn’t make the top 10 in the quarter. It’s easy to get carried away looking at individual charts, JATO have a chart that shows Tesla sales fell 9% across Europe in 2020 on the year before.. there's always a chart that shows you what you want to see. I think is pretty mixed out there.

There were also probably a lot of people who opted into salary sacrifice for 3 years and got one. but is that repeatable each year? Residuals may also soften as the longer the car has been selling the greater the used market is, we're already seeing that on the used market where cars in the first year were traded virtually at the new price, and since then there's been a steady and not unrealistic depreciation, that will start to filter into the costs in addition to the grant going.
Very good points.

Reminded me of a saying "if you torture the numbers long enough, they will tell you what you want to see" 🤣

Residuals are an interesting one - funders have been taking a conservative view and forecasting depreciation in-line with ICE vehicles in many respects. Probably not far off given the numbers that will be hitting the auction market when all the BCH and fleets go back in 3 years time.
 

browellm

Member
Oct 4, 2019
372
313
Notts
It does indicate that funders are already responding to the price changes. Finding that proves basic economics.
I'll be convinced when some real data comes in. The number of times I responded to attractive-looking lease deals that turned out to be vapourware was too numerous to mention. Hell, they might not have updated their prices in response to the changes. Whatever it is, even if legit, one price is not data - overall pricing has increase by around £80/m over a typical lease.
 

Jason71

Active Member
May 8, 2019
2,427
2,170
Shropshire
I don't have a PCP but would love to know what people are getting and got in the past as their final payment amounts on model 3. Residuals are currently crazy high. Due partly to lack of used cars available no doubt but the price increase helps as well of course. If it stays this way I am guessing early buyers on PCP will have a lot of equity at the end of their term.
 

btc1k

Member
Jan 18, 2021
224
105
Bristol
I'll be convinced when some real data comes in. The number of times I responded to attractive-looking lease deals that turned out to be vapourware was too numerous to mention. Hell, they might not have updated their prices in response to the changes. Whatever it is, even if legit, one price is not data - overall pricing has increase by around £80/m over a typical lease.
That's true about lease co's. Plenty of bait and switch with low lead in prices!
 

GeorgeSymonds

Member
Mar 16, 2018
927
528
UK
I think third party funders are wary of Tesla regardless. Many were left holding a massive problem when Tesla slashed the best part of 40k off the P100D MS and MX over night and without warning.

You only have to look at what's for sale and how long of its been sitting around to know the used market is generally over priced. There's a 2021 model year LR car in midnight silver and 4k miles on the clock and its not sold at under £44k - that car is now over £50k new. Tesla have a 2020 LR with FSD for under £47k and thats not sold either and new it would be £58k.

Don't get me wrong, depreciation is still relatively low compared to some ICE, but it is happening.
 

btc1k

Member
Jan 18, 2021
224
105
Bristol
I think third party funders are wary of Tesla regardless. Many were left holding a massive problem when Tesla slashed the best part of 40k off the P100D MS and MX over night and without warning.

You only have to look at what's for sale and how long of its been sitting around to know the used market is generally over priced. There's a 2021 model year LR car in midnight silver and 4k miles on the clock and its not sold at under £44k - that car is now over £50k new. Tesla have a 2020 LR with FSD for under £47k and thats not sold either and new it would be £58k.

Don't get me wrong, depreciation is still relatively low compared to some ICE, but it is happening.
Indeed, that just about sums up the used market!

It's a small and difficult market to sell into - other private buyers looking to drop £40k... All the tax savings are on new vehicles.
 

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