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Model 3 will have less features than the S. Which one would not make it?

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S60 got 94 city and 97 highway MPGe, 95 combined with 35 kWh/100mi
S70D got to 101 city and 102 highway MPGe with 33kWh/100mi
i3 got 137 city and 111 highway MPGe, 124 combined with 27kWh/100mi

20% better than S60 is BMW i3 territory. I wouldn't bet on it..
 
My bet is on 60 kWh (~53 kWh available) for the small battery and 80 kWh (~70 kWh available) for the big battery. Assuming the 60 kWh version will have 20% lower consumption than the S70, and the 80 kWh version will have 20% lower consumption than the 85D, that results in EPA ranges of around 245 miles for the small battery and 315 miles for the large battery. I think that is pretty good.

I would be perfectly happy with a 315 mile range in the Model 3. Of course I don't have any range anxiety about the current options available for the S. I just have anxiety about the cost :p
 
Personally I am getting rather tired of people suggesting that the MODEL 3 should or can have a battery that is less than 70kWh.
Allow me please to assure you anything less than absolute rock bottom 65kWh will cost the car so much range capability it will be a disaster.
People have got this huge ignorance when it comes to batteries and range. The notion that you could put a pack the size of the original
ROADSTER pack into a sedan and get 230 miles ranges is simply uneducated. A car that does 205 miles range is not going to cut it some
people think the MODEL 3 could drive on less than 50kWh and it could if 170 miles range is acceptable to you. The MODEL 3 needs a solid
70kWh battery pack as the entry level and it will touch or ballpark a 240 miles EPA range more with dual motor option. The Premium MODEL 3
with have a 90kWh pack and a 300 miles EPA rating. We are NOT talking about a future NISSAN LEAF we are talking TESLA folks !

The Roadster weighed almost 3000 lbs. The Model 3 will probably come in somewhere in the middle between the Roadster and the Model S, I would guess around 4000 lbs. The more weight you're trying to push around the more Wh/mi you're going to use. Reducing the weight by 20% will ensure the Model 3 gets much better Wh/Mi than the Model S, probably in the neighborhood of 240 Wh/Mi. With a 50KWH battery, that's a 208 mile range. Larger battery packs increase the weight, which increases the WH/Mi. Eventually you get into the region of diminishing returns where you're burning more energy to carry a larger battery around, but aren't seeing much increase in overall range.

I think the estimates of a 50 and 60 KWH version is probably a pretty good guess for what to expect. A larger battery would require pushing batteries up above the skateboard which loses cargo or passenger space and messes with the balance of the car. Remember the footprint for the battery pack will be smaller because the car will have a shorter wheelbase and it will be narrower. Currently both our cars are ICE cars, but my car has the same wheelbase and width of a Model S and my SO has the same wheelbase and width of a BMW 3 series. My car has a significantly larger footprint than her car.
 
S60 got 94 city and 97 highway MPGe, 95 combined with 35 kWh/100mi
S70D got to 101 city and 102 highway MPGe with 33kWh/100mi
i3 got 137 city and 111 highway MPGe, 124 combined with 27kWh/100mi

20% better than S60 is BMW i3 territory. I wouldn't bet on it..
If we assume 10% lower consumption, which might be more realistic, 60 and 80 kWh battery options would mean ranges of 218 miles and 280 miles. That should still be acceptable.

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I think the estimates of a 50 and 60 KWH version is probably a pretty good guess for what to expect. A larger battery would require pushing batteries up above the skateboard which loses cargo or passenger space and messes with the balance of the car. Remember the footprint for the battery pack will be smaller because the car will have a shorter wheelbase and it will be narrower. Currently both our cars are ICE cars, but my car has the same wheelbase and width of a Model S and my SO has the same wheelbase and width of a BMW 3 series. My car has a significantly larger footprint than her car.
Remember also that the Model 3 will use a slightly larger cell format, which will increase the volumetric density for the whole pack. As well as an improved chemistry that's better both in volumetric and gravimetric density.

Exactly how the pack will look is hard to say, except that it will cover as much of the floor as possible. But what we can say is that Tesla has indicated strongly that the base model should have at least 200 miles EPA range, maybe closer to 240 miles EPA range so that the real life range is over 200 miles in most conditions. Maybe 240 Wh/mile is plausible (the i3 is at 232 Wh/mile), but you're assuming the entire pack is available, something it's not. You can get around 75 kWh out of a 85 kWh battery pack, which is 88% of the maximum pack capacity. If you get 88% out of a 50 kWh pack and have a consumption of 240 Wh/mile, that'll be 183 miles range. That's too low. The 60 kWh works out to 220 miles, which is acceptable for the base model, but Tesla should really offer a pack with closer to 300 miles range.
 
I think it's relatively pointless at this stage to even be making a guess about pack size. The tech is changing too fast. It doesn't really matter to me what the physical pack size is anyway; it's the actual range that matters, and I have no doubt that the smallest pack size will be enough for 220-240 miles EPA range. I am hoping for the largest pack to be in the area of 300-320 miles EPA. I think it would be a big milestone for them to have a range above 300 available, whatever size pack that takes.
 
I think it's relatively pointless at this stage to even be making a guess about pack size. The tech is changing too fast. It doesn't really matter to me what the physical pack size is anyway; it's the actual range that matters, and I have no doubt that the smallest pack size will be enough for 220-240 miles EPA range. I am hoping for the largest pack to be in the area of 300-320 miles EPA. I think it would be a big milestone for them to have a range above 300 available, whatever size pack that takes.
Technology changes, physics doesn't. Given what we know about the Model 3 regarding size and other characteristics, it needs around 60 kWh for 220 miles EPA range. Maybe less if you can use the entire battery, can drop the side-view mirrors or something similar, maybe more if it's poorly designed in some way.
 
What it should have- Manual seats with GREAT lumbar support, door pockets, manual mirrors(Gasp!), fold down rear seats, Model S's video display(hey- if the software is already done, toss it in!), cheaper steering wheel than a Mercedes, easier to pull apart to do body repair, conventional handles, cruise control, single zone AC- maybe even manual AC.

What we don't have on the S that I want- a little Garmin-like "here's the speed limit on the road you're currently traveling on" sign on the primary display. Better viewing of full song title(scrolling), better nav mode- waypoints, trip storage with owner labeling(including doing it on the app, and sending to the car, if that's doable), scheduling time of start of charging, and a little "eyebrow" over the backup camera, so it works in the rain, and "Snow Mode" that leaves wipers, door handles, battery, etc., ready for a bad winter storm, and "Scheduled Wakeup"- where the car preheats the battery pack and defrosts the windows, etc., on a set time AND DATE (with a "repeat daily", "Repeat M-F" function).

What they should have but only as an option? A HUD! (Heads up Display for speed, not too much more). Air ride suspension, tow package(including a prewired wiring harness for trailer lights), Lane Change Alert, AWD, Mini-SUV or Mini-Crossover body with adjustable height that you can keep for deep snow, rear window wipers, front side window/mirror defrost, Supercharger, enhanced controls on Valet/Teenager mode (Sliders for speed and power available to them), more of a description on the song titles, Roof Rack System for the Kayaker, biker, skiers in all of us(team with Thule or such?), and a Dog Option- Cordura seats, claw resistant door panels, dog friendly (can't stand on them) window switches. Remote power and location for a radar detector or EZPass, and a "Sport Package"- a cooler grille, slightly faster acceleration, bigger/better fog lights, rear Euro Style very low mounted brake light for fog, a slightly more aggressive nose piece, different wheels, blackout or body color options, spoiler, different rear valence, and maybe something else the SEMA crowds are doing now to their cars. Finally, a "Home Emergency Power" plug and cable to power your home in an emergency.
 
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