Model 3 will have less features than the S. Which one would not make it?

[wdolson]

I suspect the fully loaded Model 3 will have most if not all the features of the Model S and X, but the base model might have a few less features than those cars base models have. The base model is not going to be positioned to compete directly with German luxury cars, it's going to be positioned for those being upsold from a Fusion, Camry, or Malibu. If you look at surveys of Model S owners, something like 60% of them had a car that sold for less than $50,000 before they bought the S. Tesla has a large number of people out there who want a Tesla for various reasons and are willing to pay more for it than any car they've ever conceived of owning. I saw it first hand at a party about a month ago. I hadn't mentioned Tesla, but someone else brought it up and the only person there who didn't want a Tesla was the only one who had a household income where she could afford a Model S. One friend drives a very beat up Ford Focus and said she either wants to keep driving beaters like that, or a Tesla, nothing in between. She's ultra frugal, but she would shell out $50,000 for a car if it was a Tesla.

The people who will be buying the $35,000 Model 3 will be willing to have manual seats, cloth interior, and a lot less in the way of creature comforts than a typical BMW buyer would be willing to get. They will be used to more basic transportation.

The people who lust after Teslas but can't afford one understand that the all electric comes at a premium price and they are willing to pay it. For these people, getting a car that has the trim of a base model family sedan for the price of a low end BMW is acceptable to get the all electric features, whether it's because of environmental concerns, performance, convenience, or they just love the technology.

 

[Lonnie123]

Sure, there are things that can be highlighted that can attract buyers connected with evs. Question is how do you market these features that would be attractive to low end BMW/Audi buyers ?

Certainly better 0-60 timing would be one. Some of them might even be willing to do more than pay lip service to climate change issues. Is that a 500k cars a year market ?

According to this the average selling price of a car is ~33k ... So I'd say the market is quite large indeed. The Model 3 will be a good car, there is no worry about that, Elon woulnd't have it any other way.

I really think once people have access to hundreds of miles of range, at home charging, super charging for travel, and a lower TCO ... The word will get out how great of a value that car is, whether or not it has temperature adjusting cup holders.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Has anyone tried to project how much a CPO 2013 Model S, with say 80,000 miles will cost in 2017? If Apple logic applies to Tesla, this will prove to be a very interesting fact that will further distinguish a Tesla from a non Tesla.

 

[EVNow]

According to this the average selling price of a car is ~33k ... So I'd say the market is quite large indeed. The Model 3 will be a good car, there is no worry about that, Elon woulnd't have it any other way.

I really think once people have access to hundreds of miles of range, at home charging, super charging for travel, and a lower TCO ... The word will get out how great of a value that car is, whether or not it has temperature adjusting cup holders.

That avg selling price includes much larger cars and SUVs. It is not a good indicator of 3 total addressable market. BTW, 3 avg selling price won't be less than $45k.

 

[igotzzoom]

It is not just a thought exercise, because if you are fighting for Prius buyers you can have 14" steel wheels, a fairly spartan interior, limited base options, etc.

It also matters for the drive axle. I always assumed the Model 3 would be front wheel drive....pictured a Honda Civic with a 50kwh battery basically.

There are some areas where the Prius is considered a "mainstream" car (California being one of them), but for most of the U.S., it's still a niche model, and in the words of Elon, considered by many to be a "Weirdmobile." If a pure BEV is going to have a chance of breaking through the stereotypes and really making a big impact, it has to have some emotional appeal to it, in my opinion.

I know the counter to my argument is "Look how many Civics/Corollas/Camrys/Altimas they sell" but few would say any of those cars are generally considered "cool". I think the key to the Model 3 getting a lot of ICE conquest buyers is an "it" factor. If that can be achieved for a price comparable to an ICE equivalent, then the mainstream auto industry will have no choice but to notice Tesla, and any questions about their viability will be put to rest.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm always amazed at the optimism expressed on these threads. Tesla magic.

There are attractive hubcaps.

$35k with a 200 mile range is hard. With profit at least. It probably costs $60k for Tesla to make a 70RWD today. The margins listed are average and we all know those are propped up by options. So the cost needs to be 50% less. Even if the battery is 40% less because 30% from gigafactory and 10% because it is a 60 kwh batttery, the rest of the car needs to be 60% less.

60% less means smaller rims/tires. Cheaper thinner paint - if you can imagine. Smaller brakes. AND less features.

500k units does save cost but when they start, it won't be 500k units a year. They can't cash burn that much. They already burn cash pretty fast and a market pullback will make it hard to keep burning at the rate they do.

Don't forget reduced power. Power is very expensive.

 

[aronth5]

The $35k Model 3 will go the way of the initial Model S with the 40kWH battery initially priced at $57,499. Got lots of favorable press but in the end very few paid that price. In the end over 95+% of buyers will pay over $40k IMO anyway for the Model 3.
The one good thing that is happening is that because the $35k price target has gotten so much press it forces Tesla to work really hard at coming up with an affordable configuration. I suspect Elon know this but also knows that the engineering/design team has to have an almost impossible goal to drive the creative design needed to reduce price. I for one cannot wait to see what they come up with to save money.

 

[David_Cary]

Don't forget reduced power. Power is very expensive.

I don't know - EV power is not that expensive. Throw out the 180 hp and 260 hp - I doubt there is $500 difference. I could be wrong of course. With an ICE, there is always a significant engine cost and also a transmission cost. Of course, there is the tire thing - but I think Tesla will shoot for base 3 series size tires - which fit with 260 hp. I think Model S history has shown that he will sell a car without parking sensors, folding mirrors, leather - but it will be fast. Did some S's not have power seats? I know memory was not always standard.

 

[S'toon]

The $35k Model 3 will go the way of the initial Model S with the 40kWH battery initially priced at $57,499. Got lots of favorable press but in the end very few paid that price. In the end over 95+% of buyers will pay over $40k IMO anyway for the Model 3.
The one good thing that is happening is that because the $35k price target has gotten so much press it forces Tesla to work really hard at coming up with an affordable configuration. I suspect Elon know this but also knows that the engineering/design team has to have an almost impossible goal to drive the creative design needed to reduce price. I for one cannot wait to see what they come up with to save money.

I disagree. People like me want the Model 3 because we can't afford the Model S. The only option I need is the winter package. Anything else is optional depending on price.

 

[InTheShadows]

IMO the Model 3 will be a no compromise $35k vehicle. Every option Tesla can squeeze into it to keep that price point will be in it.

Elon does not want any car Tesla makes to be considered the Yugo or the Yaris. His goal is to show the world that electric vehicles kick a**, and the Model 3 will not break that stride. It will be the car that every would be A4, 3 Series, C class buyer will drool over. It will also be the car that every Honda, Toyota, VW buyer will strongly consider. I'm not sure how KIA, Hyundai, GM, and Ford buyers will react.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The base model is not going to be positioned to compete directly with German luxury cars, it's going to be positioned for those being upsold from a Fusion, Camry, or Malibu. If you look at surveys of Model S owners, something like 60% of them had a car that sold for less than $50,000 before they bought the S. Tesla has a large number of people out there who want a Tesla for various reasons and are willing to pay more for it than any car they've ever conceived of owning. I saw it first hand at a party about a month ago. I hadn't mentioned Tesla, but someone else brought it up and the only person there who didn't want a Tesla was the only one who had a household income where she could afford a Model S. One friend drives a very beat up Ford Focus and said she either wants to keep driving beaters like that, or a Tesla, nothing in between. She's ultra frugal, but she would shell out $50,000 for a car if it was a Tesla.

Keep in mind though that even mainstream cars are rapidly moving upwards in terms of features. Even something as pedestrian as a new Honda Accord has features that were only in luxury cars (or not available at all in some cases) just a few years ago.

Model 3 will have to be well equipped to complete with even average new cars.

I know the counter to my argument is "Look how many Civics/Corollas/Camrys/Altimas they sell" but few would say any of those cars are generally considered "cool".

The Civic Si is "cool" every other generation. In its previous incarnation, it had a small 197hp 2.0L engine that revved to a screaming 8000 RPM. The engine would howl like a banshee during the i-VTEC crossover around 5800 RPM.

But yeah, nobody really thinks twice about the Civic most of the time.

 

[pmadflyer]

I would like to put some perspective into this conversation. I hope to do that by adding some honest opinion along with some oversimplified numbers.

My Perspective:
Current Car:
I am a third year Civil Engineering student with a 2002 Honda Accord LX with failing black paint. Though nothing much to look at, my vehicle has fully electric mirrors, windows, and cruise control. My roommate also has a 2002 Honda Accord, but a higher trim package. In essence, his car only varies in that it has different cloth on the seats, a larger radio, and a sunroof. Adjusted for inflation, my vehicle would cost $25,000 new, today. We both expect a relatively basic Model 3 to completely surpass this.

My Knowledge of the Company:
I have consumed every numerical tidbit to come out of Tesla Motors for the past three years, and most of it from about five years ago. It feels like every day someone says that Tesla can only build an econobox for $35k, and it is annoying, but the information coming out of Tesla is very limited. Rather than spend more time on that, I'll look at some of the things that are going on at Tesla to prepare for the Model 3.

Model S is Only a Mule:
The Model S dual motor version is said by Elon Musk to contain a very similar motor in the front as will be used in the base RWD Model 3. I believe that this was stated either at the D Event or at the next Earnings Call. This is genius, as it means that millions of miles of testing will have already been done.
Another technology that is stated by Elon as being a very important part of Model 3 is the Autopilot. Elon believes that this is a matter or safety, and that every vehicle should have it once it’s ready. Now for my opinion. I believe that the reason the Model S Autopilot hardware suite is so sparse compared to competitors is that the planned recipient is Model 3. Otherwise, the additional programming necessary to use only one long distance radar, and a single camera, could have been saved. I trust that the engineers understood this, and intended to have a competent code written for a minimalist hardware suite, so that when money starts pouring into other parts of the Model 3 program, one of the more expensive parts is already battle tested.

Interior:
Tesla has mastered the cheap interior, not much to add here, or take away for that matter.

User Controls:
I recall possible discussion of Elon saying there will only be one screen in Model 3, which I thought sounded terrible until I gave more thought to it. I could see Tesla ordering their own non-standard aspect ratio screen that starts in front of the driver and extends to the center. In front of the driver could be a section with basic speed, navigation, and temperature, etc. Media and climate controls could be positioned toward the center so that the driver or passenger could reach it. In other words, half the parts with the same function. I’m sure that if that is in fact the route Tesla goes down, it will be done in an attractive way.

Performance:
I would expect similar base performance to the S70, taking into account reduced weight.

As usual, I spent far more time typing this up than I had hoped for, so I’ll go ahead and post this already.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Probably could have added this to a previous post.

Features I don't think the 3 will have Standard:

1. Heated folding mirrors
2. Free first years of LTE/3G
3. Free supercharging (my iPad just autocorrected "supercharging" to "super hating" maybe I should reconsider this one, of course supercharging will still be available but not "free")
4. Retracting door handles
5. Back up camera (edit: it will have this)
6. Driver profiles (will be option)


Options that won't be available:

1. Rear seat heaters/heated steering wheel
2. Smart Air suspension
3. Power lift gate/cornering lights
4. Third row (obviously)
(5. Maybe pano roof)


Cheaper stuff:

1. ~180hp base motor 0-60 in ~7s
2. 50kwh battery in base model
3. More steel, less aluminum, no titanium in battery shield.
4. Smaller screen ~14" (I think there'll still be two)
5. 17" tires standard

Even with the above gone a fair number of awesome features are left.

 

[S'toon]

Even with the above gone a fair number of awesome features are left.

Like what?

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Like what?

All electric drivetrain
Autopilot (as option)
real time traffic (as option)
speed limit detecting camera/speed warning
Rain sensing wipers/ auto headlights

The above list is imo more substantive than the list of features I guessed will be absent.

 

[bwa]

Probably could have added this to a previous post.

Features I don't think the 3 will have Standard:

5. Back up camera
6. Driver profiles

Cheaper stuff:

3. More steel, less aluminum, no titanium in battery shield.

Even with the above gone a fair number of awesome features are left.

I tend to agree with your guesses except the above quoted:

Back up camera: a lot of safety regulations want this to exist. You may be right, though.

Driver profiles: doing this is SO CHEAP that it seems silly not to.

More steel, less aluminum: agree, mostly, but they may do cheap composites. I disagree with no titanium in battery shield MOSTLY --- we'll find out later.

 

[S'toon]

All electric drivetrain
Autopilot (as option)
real time traffic (as option)
speed limit detecting camera/speed warning
Rain sensing wipers/ auto headlights

The above list is imo more substantive than the list of features I guessed will be absent.

I can deal with having none of those.

If there were no supercharging I wouldn't buy it. Heck, if there still isn't any superchargers within a 1000km of here by 2018 I won't buy the car.

I couldn't care less if it had speed limiting cameras/speed warning, or rain sensing wipers/auto headlights. I'm not too lazy to turn on the fricking lights or turn on the windshield wipers. I turn on the windshield and lights on my car now, it's not an effort to do so. How on Earth do people think are must have features these days?

Even non-luxury GM cars have 4G now. I can't imagine that the Model 3 won't in 2 years.

 

[bwa]

Has anyone tried to project how much a CPO 2013 Model S, with say 80,000 miles will cost in 2017? If Apple logic applies to Tesla, this will prove to be a very interesting fact that will further distinguish a Tesla from a non Tesla.

Limited manufacturing capability and a very high demand are going to keep the price artificially high. But I'm hoping I'm wrong. I have an 11 year old MB E500 right now I bought when it had become very very highly depreciated, and it seems cheap and plastic to me, and I've spent way too much on ICE parts that the Model S DOESN'T EVEN HAVE. I thought I'd be on my 8th used electric car by now since I thought they were coming out with them 30 years ago and would be on the used market. But I'm not. Not even one. So I hope the Tesla Model S 2012 model comes down to something I can afford in say, 2017 or so -- it will be a lateral move in comfort (I find it to be a little less comfortable than my aging E500 in test drives of the Tesla S, and I'm already feeling my E500 is a very cheap type of thing and uncomfortable), and the Model S interior sucks from the point of view of someone who wants a luxury car, but you can't beat the fact that it's not an ICE and isn't an ugly piece of crap looking like the Toy Piss, I mean Toy Pious.

 

[Candleflame]

I don't understand why ppl always go on about the model S screen. I don't think its that expensive to manufacture, and almost certainly wont be much cheaper to make it smaller and Im pretty sure its cheaper to put an LCD in the car, rather than 100 buttons in the cockpit...

 

[stopcrazypp]

5. Back up camera

Back up camera is required by law to be in all new vehicles by 2018. So the Model 3 must have it. My uncle recently bought a cheap Corolla and it came with a back up camera so they are really common nowadays.

About the smaller motor, I'm not sure if Tesla will do that. It might be cheaper to just keep in the same 259hp ("motor power") motor as the dual motor models since it'll allow higher volume.