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Model 3 with 400 mile range

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by carvana, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. Cmunny

    Cmunny Member

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    As another added plus to the prototype Innolith is developing, replacing the organic electrolytes in current "wet" Li+ packs with more stable inorganic electrolytes would eliminate the risk of fire and explosion, therefore doing away with all the negative light shown on TESLA in the MSM of late.
     
  2. Octo

    Octo Banned

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    Yeah, IMO 300 miles is enough if there are sufficient super charger like setups along the route. I am totally sold on EVs - it’s just so difficult for people who don’t know EVs to let go of the known process.

    I actually prefer the supercharger half hour along the interstate to the minutes filling up my ICE vehicles. The whole experience is great in Texas at the moment. No problems with availability (not like in the bay area) and often next to very nice eateries. I’m filling up my ICE vehicles rarely now and when I do I’m surprised how overwhelming the obnoxious poisonous fuel stink is now that I’m not used to it anymore.
     
  3. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Both of the above are concepts claimed by start-up companies that are hyping them to get investment money so they can try to actually create the things they are claiming. One out of a thousand such concepts ever pans out. They are interesting to read about, and maybe one day they or another similar concept will pan out. Technology continually moves forward, and motors will definitely become more efficient, and batteries will get cheaper and more energy-dense.

    But most of these advances will come from established companies with big research budgets. Very few come from amateurs working in their garage. Holding these out as done deals before they've even demonstrated a prototype is, shall we say, a bit optimistic.

    I remember EEStor and its claimed ultracapacitor that was going to render batteries obsolete. A friend actually told me not to even consider lithium batteries for my Zap Xebra because in six months we could buy ultracapacitors at a fraction of the cost and weight. EEStor had just announced a breakthrough milestone: They had succeeded in refining the material they intended to use as the dielectric for their capacitors. They did not yet have an actual prototype capacitor to test. They just had a method for refining the dielectric that they believed would work. And we were supposed to believe that in six months they'd build some prototypes, test them, demonstrate their safety, develop methods for mass-manufacture, construct the factory, and bring them to market. I called BS. And of course, they never even produced one prototype. To this day I don't know if it was all a scam from the start (raise money, pay yourself a salary until the money runs out, and then declare failure and shut down) or if they really believed they could do it. Zenn, a Canadian company making a very nice NEV long before you could buy a Tesla, went bankrupt because they bought the hype and invested heavily in EEStor.

    Your odds are better playing double-zero on the roulette table in Las Vegas than investing in this kind of company.
     
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  4. Cmunny

    Cmunny Member

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    Of the three projects listed, the only one still in startup funding is the Innolith battery. Linear Labs has already secured 4.5 million for testing, and already has a prototype unit for testing purposes. They have an applied prototype scooter scheduled for prodction next year, and a full EV prototype scheduled for 2021.

    You can hardly call Fisker a startup, despite his rocky history challenging and stealing TESLA designs.

    Innolith is currently developing their Gridbank system in Hagerstown, and plans to deliver that prototype to market by 2022.

    I'm not disagreeing with you that a lot can happen between now and then, but I wouldn't discount these projects out of hand.

    My principle point is that the industries of energy storage and electric propulsion are still babies in the world market, and we are witnessing the dawn of a new era of technological designs that we cannot hope to imagine.

    And it is coming faster than most people think.
     
  5. ewoodrick

    ewoodrick Active Member

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    400 miles may come because battery technology may get a little better. But beyond that you are probably looking at bigger batteries and that's less probable, especially in a car.

    Remember, very few people use a 200 mile battery to it's limits. It tends to require a road trip, which are relatively uncommon.

    You will start to see a lot more options around 200, partly as an effort for larger adoption
     
  6. ezevphl

    ezevphl Member

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    It will happen, but not particularly soon.
    Until it was announced that the S is getting 370 mi range, no one expected it.

    The S is the flagship and the new Roadster is the halo car.
    I could see a Model S with a 400 mile range in a few years, but I don't expect it on the 3 until a major revision.
     
  7. wws

    wws Member

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    The Innolith article describes tech that sounds similar to what Tesla may have acquired via Maxwell. It will be fun to see what Elon unveils at his upcoming "Battery Day" event.

    Not sure how much more efficient motor tech can get. The Tesla PMSRM motors and SiC-based inverters are already highly efficient. And simple reduction gears are hardly "complex and expensive".

    While I think the Raven Model S is just a tweak or two away from 400 miles, its current 370 mile range is no slouch. But is 400 miles really needed? Compare the estimated times for a decent days road trip - say San Jose to San Diego (488 miles) to a Model 3 RWD LR with 310 mile range using ABRP. ABRP estimates about one minute difference - despite two charging stops in the Model 3 vs one in the Model S. Most folks could use a "bio break" or two along that route anyway.
     
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  8. SpGator

    SpGator Member

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    I think the first Tesla vehicle with 400+ range will be the Tesla Truck due to the range needed for towing.
     
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  9. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Most start-ups fail, and most new projects never make it to market. And it takes a very long time from prototype to market. You need to validate the prototype, then you need to design the manufacturing process, then you need to build the plant. And it's not enough to demonstrate that the prototype works. You have to be able to manufacture it at a cost the market will pay. In the case of batteries, they not only need to be economical to purchase, but they need to have a sufficiently large cycle life, and they need to be robust throughout the range of operating temperatures.

    We're going to see better everything. But if you get excited over every announced project, you'll start to get exhausted pretty quickly. I've gotten tired of the number of miracle batteries announced, onto to then fade away and we never hear of them again because their cycle life was too short or their operating temperature was too hot or too cold or too narrow or they couldn't be mass-manufactured at a competitive price.

    And as wws points out, electric motors are already extremely efficient. There's not all that much room for improvement there.

    What we need even more than technological improvements in motors and batteries is a rational energy policy that makes fossil fuels pay for all their externalities, like global warming and oil spills, and that stops subsidizing them.
     
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  10. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal Active Member

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    The option might be possible in the next year or so. I don't think most buyers would pay for it though, at least the smart ones. Opportunity cost is easy in this case.

    Say that the 400mile battery is 5k more than the 325 mile battery. Unless you hit that 400 miles on a frequent basis you are paying for something you use a few times a year. So if it saves you 2 hours a year in charging times on longer trips, congrats. You just paid 5k in cash to save you 10 hours over the next 5 years. I don't know about you guys, but my time is worth way less than $500 an hour.
     
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  11. antoinearnau

    antoinearnau Member

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    I think Tesla should start asking for a couple thousand in advance to people willing to have a 400 miles battery. Once they can deliver such battery, they can charge more for it !
    Hmmm....wait a minute ! :)
     
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  12. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    I've seen a few videos lately that claim that if they use the technology of the battery company they just acquired (Maxwell) they will be able to increase the current energy density by about 50%. That would result in a car with about 450 miles that has essentially the same battery size as they do now. I could see that happening in the next few years.
     
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  13. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    Tesla is already hitting 94% efficiency with the PMSR motor and Silicon Carbide power electronics.

    There's not much room to improve here - if you somehow managed to be twice as efficient/have half the losses - 97% overall efficiency instead, you'll only add 3% to the car's range.

    I do expect significant improvements in the battery chemistry over the next few years, but we'll have to see.
     
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  14. cleveland97

    cleveland97 Member

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    Your opinion of the hypothetical demand for a longer-range Model 3 will depend VERY heavily on where you live and the type of driving you do....

    My opinion is that even with ubiquitous faster charging available (and let's be honest Super Charger v3 won't be ubiquitous for several years simply due to the cost of upgrading all the existing sites) a longer range Model 3 would continue to have a significant market, even at a hypothetical pricetag of an extra $1,000 per extra 25 miles or so. I know I would consider trading in my Model 3 today if there was one available with 400 miles.

    In the winter in northern cities it's easy for your real range to drop from 300 to 200 miles - trust me, I live in Cleveland and have put 22,000 miles on my LR AWD over the last 10 months. I make many longish drives for work and winter was a real adjustment for me. Once you factor in a buffer of another 10-15%, which is even more important when it's cold and nasty outside, your realistic range could be as low as 150miles. Add in the fact that when the battery is cold it doesn't charge as quickly.

    Honestly the difference in this car from winter to summer is astounding to me. Anyone who hasn't lived with a Model 3 over an entire winter in a northern climate simply wouldn't believe it. I went from an AVERAGE of 312 wh/mile in the winter to something closer to 240 wh/mile in the summer. Same driver, same car, same trips. 312 average means that some of my trips were over 400 wh/mile. No joke.

    Last comment - It's also notable that every time Tesla has introduced a longer-range option in the S, X or 3 it has had a market...
     
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  15. SSedan

    SSedan Active Member

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    Thank you for the detail here, it backs up what I believed but I did not have the numbers to back up.
     
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  16. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Before Tesla installed a supercharger in Kelowna, BC, I would have needed a 400-mile range to comfortably make my annual hiking trip to Canada on electric. Even with that supercharger, the SR battery would not have made it. I said that if they made a Model S with 400 miles of range I'd buy it so that I could make that trip, even though I really didn't want a car that big. In the end, I got the Model 3 and then they put the supercharger in Kelowna, and I made the trip. (And then moved to a tiny island where if there was a full perimeter road I could drive all the way around the island twice on one charge!)

    I believe that you've seen videos that say that. I don't believe for an instant that it's true. I would expect that they'll get useful technology and maybe continue to gain a few percent a year in battery capacity. Any proposition you want to imagine, from miracle batteries to flat Earth, you can find videos of.
     
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  17. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    These aren’t crackpot videos....



    According to the video Maxwells own documents say they can get 300 wh/kg using their dry coating technique. The current batteries have a density of 207 wh/kg. That's a 50% gain.

    Edit: According to this article they have actually demonstrated that 300 wh/kg and have a path to 500 wh/kg.

    Did Tesla Buy Maxwell for Its Ultracapacitors or Higher-Density Batteries? - ExtremeTech
     
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  18. mike123abc

    mike123abc Member

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    I personally would like to see 600 mile range.... That way you could fast charge up to 300...

    If you live in an area with high speed limits (75-80) and hills, you really need more range.

    All depends on what you need the car for - I drive long distances (225-250 miles) at a time, I need the range. If you are just driving some around town you will not need it. I would trade in my model 3 today if a new one came out with 400-600 miles range. Mine is rated 310 (AWD 19") but I only rely on it for 250 miles since the speed limits are 75MPH here.
     
  19. kaffine

    kaffine Member

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    I would have gone for a longer range if it was available as my daily commute used to be 170 miles a day and I would rather not have to stop at a SC on my commute. I was looking at a few jobs that would have been over 200 mile daily commute. The problem is the rated range isn't the real range. Cold conditions and faster speeds reduce the range. I am one that has a longer than normal commute. I see the point that most don't need the range however if Tesla offers it people will buy it if they really need it or not.

    I think it will be done to help get SC speeds up as well. Bigger the battery the faster you can add range while SC as it can accept more power.
     
  20. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal Active Member

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    Sure, it would make sense in your case but you are a rarity. More choices the better of course.


    Tesla has described it as a "step change" haven't they?
     

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