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Model 3 with 400 mile range

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by carvana, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    I don’t know, have they? I don’t pay that much attention to Tesla news. Only knew about this because I watch a lot of science and engineering stuff on YouTube.
     
  2. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal Active Member

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    According to the video Maxwells own documents say they can get 300 wh/kg using their dry coating technique. The current batteries have a density of 207 wh/kg. That's a 50% gain.

    Edit: According to this article they have actually demonstrated that 300 wh/kg and have a path to 500 wh/kg.

    Did Tesla Buy Maxwell for Its Ultracapacitors or Higher-Density Batteries? - ExtremeTech[/QUOTE]
    Tesla has described it as a "step change" haven't they?
    I'm having problems finding the source but I believe so.
     
  3. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    They say they can do this. They have demonstrated something. Until it's in production and available for use in mass-market production, it's still just something they're working on. Any number of things could get in the way. Cost, cycle life, etc.

    I really hope they achieve this. But until it's on the market it's still just speculation. A technological leap of this magnitude would make the company so valuable that if it were a done deal their stock price would have at least quadrupled. But I don't dispute that Tesla may have bought them for their battery technology and expertise. Having that in-house would be great for Tesla. Even if it's just the more realistic few percent per year improvement.

    I do not envy you! I could probably accept those kinds of commute times for a job that paid a million dollars a year.
     
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  4. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    I said it could happen in a few years. I'm sure that even if they could start making their own batteries today they have some deals with Panasonic that need to expire before they can do that. There is a whole weird system in place with Panasonic and the gigafactory that probably makes transitioning to their own batteries a bit tricky. Maybe if they can figure it out they can license the technology to Panasonic, then Panasonic can make the batteries, then Tesla can buy them back. That might get around any weird deals they have in place. But it could take years to work it all out.
     
  5. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. A 50% jump in energy density is a pretty big claim. The legal side is moot if the claim is unrealistic. And FWIW, the media tends to exaggerate all claims. Somebody finds a chemical that kills a cancer cell in a petri dish and the news media shout to the skies that they've found a cure for cancer.

    Batteries may have 50% more energy density in ten or fifteen years. Anybody that can do it in two years from now will be a multi-billionaire overnight. And the stock of any company that does it that quick will rocket through the roof.
     
  6. BZM3

    BZM3 Member

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    Amen - I have the SR plus. Live in Manhattan, work in Long Island, 60 mile total commute every day, can go 3 days without a charge but luckily my apartment has a 30mi/hr charger I plug in every night. Not once have I had 'range anxiety'.
     
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  7. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    Maxwell claims to have already done it using a dry coating technique. That's why Tesla bought them. If it proves to be fake, or too hard to do at scale, then maybe you're right. But all evidence points to it being true. While I understand the pessimism, this isn't some research paper from a university lab. This is a real company with published science on the technique. Will it result in real batteries in the next few year?. Your guess is as good as mine. If it does, then like you said it'll make Tesla a lot more valuable company. If not then we slowly march forward like we always have and get there eventually anyway.
     
  8. mike123abc

    mike123abc Member

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    Even if Maxwell's tech end up producing 20% more in the short run it would be a big win. If the ultra capacitors allow full regen all the time (i.e. full battery or cold battery) by holding the energy and slowly releasing it to the batteries or back to the engine, it would be a win and would help mileage too. If they are able to manufacture more batteries in less factory space with improved/eliminated drying it would be another win.
     
  9. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    I don't doubt that they have a new technology that will result in improvement. It's the 50% number that puts my skeptical flags up. I could beliece 5%.

    Ultracapacitors have a serious safety issue: If the dielectric is breached, there's a catastrophic release of energy. Designing a capacitor with a really large amount of capacitance is only part of the problem. Making it safe is probably a harder problem. I don't doubt we'll get there. I just don't believe news articles and promotional videos that claim it's happening tomorrow. Every time one more obstacle is overcome, the media will shout that the problem has been solved and we're going to have a miraculous new tech. And the vast majority of such articles turn out not even to be what the researcher or company said.

    Did Maxwell put out its own press release saying that they'll have 50% more energy-dense batteries by such-and-such a date? Or did some reporter say that they've developed a dry coating process that will mean we'll have 50% better batteries in no time at all? I'll bet it's the latter. And I'll bet that Tesla bought them because they have a strong research department that is showing real promise toward improving batteries at an encouraging pace. I'll bet they've developed this dry coating process which shows promise in leading toward better batteries, but that it's just one step along a long road.
     
  10. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    They claim to have a working prototype that has an energy density of 300wh/kg. Tesla's current batteries are 207wh/kg. That’s where I'm getting the 50% figure from. They also claim that the technology could be pushed as high as 500wh/kg. That would give a Model 3 about 750 miles of range.

    With a battery like that they could cap it at like 350 and keep it in that low charge state where the battery can be recharged really quickly. Or they could unleash the full range and you could do a full day of driving without stopping at all. It would actually surpass ICE vehicles in it's convenience for road tripping.
     
  11. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    The problem isn't making a chemistry that manages 300 Wh per kg.

    It's making a chemistry with 300 Wh per kg that can take 4C discharges and 2C charging with minimal degradation over several hundred charge cycles.

    I'm sure Maxwell managed the first. I'm not at all sure they managed the second yet.
     
  12. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Yes. This is what I was trying to say, but much more concisely than I managed. And this illustrates how reporting on new science often (I could probably say always) manages to convey exactly the wrong impression even when occasionally getting the facts right. Maxwell's prototype battery is a very long ways from becoming a commercial product, and even at this stage, most inventions never make it to market because they don't meet the requirements, even if they meet the most prominent one.

    Then some people grab onto the (incomplete) news and assume there's a marketable product.

    Maxwell's claim may be true, but it lacks critical information. It may take another ten years of research before their prototype is a useful product, or it might never get there. Tesla didn't buy Maxwell because they have a battery that will add 50% to next year's Model 3. They bought them because they have the depth of battery research capacity to continue to improve the technology and because they can give Tesla the possibility of becoming independent of outside battery companies.
     
  13. MentalNomad

    MentalNomad Member

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    All this talk of energy densities makes me feel the need to remind folks of something...

    Those densities are just for the cells. The Tesla battery packs are not 207wh/kg, just the cells are. The cells are built into sets with metal heat conducting channelers for the liquid cooling. That all adds weight, but is necessary to manage the heat and make them usable.

    How does the working prototype of the new cell workout as far as heat? How does the chemistry hold up when being charged at high rates? What is the safety profile? Can it be charged at high rates in supercharging stations? Assuming the new cells are workable, when you're done packaging them, adding thermal controls, getting them into safe arrays in safe containers how to make actual battery packs, are you still getting more power per unit of volume consumed in the car? How much more?

    I'm not saying there won't be progress. I'm just saying that when a tech developer advertises their Banner spec, it's a mistake to extrapolate that into the overall performance increase after everything else is taken into account.
     
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  14. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    Based on the explanation in the video I posted the basic structure of the battery is the same the only difference is the technique they use for coating the collector with the electrode material. It's not like we're talking about completely new technology here. It's basically a different manufacturing technique that results in a thicker electrode and an increase in density. Now that's not to say it wont cause other issues, like extra heat or charging issues. Those are completely possible. But this isn't the same as 5em acquiring some startup that has some completely new technology that's only been proven in a lab.

    In fact the video specifically states that even using the current technique they still have room to grow about 30% over present day batteries, so this is really just a step upgrade but with a pretty big step. (provided it all works as described)
     
  15. ngogas

    ngogas Active Member

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    Why 400? Ask for 500 miles!
     
  16. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Again, until it's been tested and verified in all particulars it's just a concept. If it was a done deal they'd be manufacturing it already. One little tweak can change everything. The thicker coating might affect the charging rate so it won't work with superchargers, or it could affect heat dissipation so that it cannot be cooled sufficiently, or any one of a hundred other things neither of us has thought of.

    This is a concept that holds promise. It's not a done deal until it's in cars.

    This happens all the time, that a big breakthrough is touted, only to turn out to be impractical, or unworkable, or merely a very small improvement. I expect a small improvement, but not the 50% touted above, or even the reduced claim of 30%.

    My best guess: There's a little bit of substance here, inflated by a super-size helping of hype.
     
  17. EnrgyNDpndnce

    EnrgyNDpndnce Member

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    A wise man once told me it doesn’t matter how many children you have, they all cost the same amount of money and that’s EVERY PENNY YOU HAVE.
     
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  18. justabrake

    justabrake Member

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    LOL that's funny do you actually think 200 mile range is satisfactory i'm sure 90% tesla owners would really love a battery to last 400-500 miles no matter what the cost and time to recharge is
     
  19. Levelheadsteve

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    I agree. 400-500 miles is the sweet spot for me. Will likely buy a Tesla with 240-310 mile range, but would love 400+.
     
  20. Dan203

    Dan203 Member

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    I think a car with 700+ mile range is ideal. It would allow road trips with no recharging at all. Or if you did need to go further you could just keep it in the lower 50% where it super charges really fast.
     

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