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Model III Performance Edition

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by anxman, Feb 26, 2016.

  1. anxman

    anxman Member

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    Hi all, I'm a happy owner of my P85D but I'd be interested in a smaller Tesla with the same (or better) high performance handling. I've been curious what this vehicle may be in terms of specifications, and I wanted to share some of my predictions.

    I ran some calculations by comparing the Model S to other high end luxury vehicles (Mercedes S Class, Audi A8, BMW 7 Series) and then did the same calculation against competing entry level luxury sedans. Based on this data, I predict the Model 3 dimensions are going to be around 180 x 73 x 56.

    By applying this sizing to the battery pack, I believe that the Model 3 could support a battery that is 92% the size of the current Model S battery. If battery sizes increase by 5% per year, then the high end Model III could have up to a 100kw battery pack by 2018. I think they would probably offer versions as low as 60kw and 100kw at the highest.

    Assuming that there is an AWD version available with similar or more powerful power motors, I expect there will be an ultra high performance Model III in the $60k-70k price range. Given the larger battery size, smaller size / weight of the vehicle, and perhaps more powerful motors, I could see the highest end model having a 0-60 time in the 2.2s range.
     
  2. Brad_NC

    Brad_NC Member

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    I think it's time I get a promotion at work. :smile: I am ready for a $60,000 car... $70,000 I'll need some help for, haha. (Though, at that cost I'd really have to debate to $35,000 cars.)
     
  3. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    Your dimensions are 13% smaller than the Model S. Elon said 20%. I'm sure the 20% has a margin of fib in it, but 7%? Seems high to me.

    Also 2.2s? I don't think so. That's Porsche 911 Spyder territory.
     
  4. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

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    That's exactly what I'm looking at. I was thinking low end MS, but since I won't be in a position to purchase for another 12 months, I might as well wait it out and get a fully spec'd M3 instead. It would be a lot more fun, and I prefer smaller cars anyway. If I can get a 90D with Ludicrous M3 for $70-75k, it's a no brainer vs a base 70D Model S (thought I get the base Model S will be 90 by that time)
     
  5. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    JB Straubel has been quoted as saying that it'll be about the same size as an Audi A4. That's 186″ L x 73″ W x 56″ H. +9" L x +3" W x -1" H compared to our Gen 1 Volt, and that'd be OK for us, especially with a skateboard design that'll make the cabin roomier.
     
  6. mark

    mark Member

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    2.2 is maximum plaid - won't see that till the new roadster.
     
  7. anxman

    anxman Member

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    I think Maximum Plaid will be sub 2.0 :)

    The 20% smaller calculation could be the total volume of the car, or interior space, or other calculations. Based on a wheelbase of 186" x 73" 56", we would only be talking marginally smaller than the Model S. Given the trend of all cars getting bigger, it seems reasonable to me, but it means that Model III could support a battery nearly the size of the S.
     
  8. Mad Hungarian

    Mad Hungarian Member

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    I agree with ItsNotAboutTheMoney that the M3 will be A4 or 3 series sized as has been publicly acknowledged several times by both JB and Elon, so those dimensions should be the references. However I'm not convinced this is going to translate into a car that's 20% lighter than the MS as it's already been stated that it won't be all aluminum, and if they do wind up offering the same size motors as a P90D (or even more powerful, although it's unlikely) along with a 90Kw or bigger pack then we might wind up with only a 10% weight savings. I'm totally OK with that as I'm more concerned with highway range, which will be driven by frontal area and Cd, where I'm thinking they will be able to improve on the MS by 20% or more. But the chances of it beating the P90D Ludicrous 0-60 times by more than a tenth or two will be slim, due to the above factors. I'll still be thrilled if it matches P90D numbers at half the price :biggrin:
     
  9. ryanjm

    ryanjm Tesla Podcast Host

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    Personally, I think the "floor" for the PxxD Model 3 will be a 0-60 time in the mid-3's. I just don't see Elon building a performance car in 2017/18 that's slower than that. Meanwhile, I think the best-case scenario will be a 2.6 or 2.7 -- just edging out the Ludicrous S.

    Most likely, it'll be somewhere in between.
     
  10. Tesloid

    Tesloid Member

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    Battery pack size is the biggest factor contributing to motor performance, in the Model S. You'll see the same behavior on the model 3. So, the 0 to 60 specs will heavily rely on the battery packs they end up using.

    My prediction is a 55kWh pack for the base model, which would limit the motor to roughly 250HP output, probably resulting in 0 to 60 times around 5.2s to 5.5s.


    The P70D would be able to achieve around 400HP output. Resulting in 3.5s performance, where it won't exactly encroach on the S P90D specs.

    - - - Updated - - -

    BTW, my above performance estimates for the model 3 look very impressive especially when viewed in comparison to current (2017 model year) BMW 3 series offerings. BMW M3 manages 0 to 60 in 3.9s... A P70D at 3.5s blows it away. The battery packs will only get bigger over time, and gasoline variants of the 3 series will never be able to catch up to future Model 3 specs.
     
  11. anxman

    anxman Member

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    Fair point. A III-P70D @ 3.5s would more than meet my performance needs and it's a product I'd be interested in buying.
     
  12. EV Guy

    EV Guy Member

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  13. Tesloid

    Tesloid Member

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    I hope they stick to this philosophy. But again, there is a possibility of Tesla doing what BMW does. If you check the performance specs of 3 and 5 series sedans, the 3-series cars are faster than the 5-series. People still buy 5 series in good numbers, because they just want a roomier vehicle. Same applies to the even slower 7-series vehicles. It is all about paying more for the cabin and storage space. Now, Tesla can keep the range and performance constant across 3, S & X platforms, and only use their cabin+trunk size as a distinction between classes. People are already used to seeing this with conventional automakers' lineups.
     
  14. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    If, as most of us suppose, Tesla ends out replicating 3-series-like model spread, we should be able to see JB's objective and aggressive performance variants at the same time. Given the physical size and battery improvements at JB's 7% pa improvement we should see the basic variant meet the cost objective with a 250 mi range or so, while allowing for a ~90kWh top variant with much more range and a SP90D beater also.

    After all, with the same 7% pa we should see a SP110D or so, roughly when the III reaches the market. I'll wager we'll see continuing performance improvements in all models. Is that not much of what Tesla is about?

    My 2 cents just thinks that in the ten months I've had my P85D it has had eight firmware updates, and is a much better car than I bought. Progress will continue. The problem is, we all know that progress is not smoothly continuous.
     
  15. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    My interpretation of that is that Tesla knows how to make a long range Model 3 (significantly greater than 200 miles, which is "long range" compared to the competition) and knows how to make a high performance Model 3, and is focusing on meeting Elon's announced $35K base price which means reducing the cost of components and manufacturing processes.
    It does not mean the Model 3 will not have longer range and higher performance options; of course it will. There will be a base $35K version that has real world range of at least 200 miles with very respectable 0-60 times, and there will be longer range and higher powered options.
     

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