Model S 100D < $65,000 by end of 2019?

[GoEagles997]

A decent 75D with AP 2.0 with free SuperCharging and the refresh can be had for about $60-$65K via private seller or so. I'm guessing if I am somewhat patient, by September - December of this year I'll be able to get a 100D with all of the options I want including the following:

Premium Upgrade Package, Sub Zero Package, HiFi Sound, Hi Amp Charging, etc.

Realistic or a pipe dream? What say you?

 

[gaswalla]

I say definitely - by end of the year, it'll be a car with old battery tech, lacking AP 3, and the old interior

 

[lookmtb]

6 months maybe, 1 year definitely...

 

[gaswalla]

Question is if p100d will track p85d resale prices to under 50k

 

[GoEagles997]

I say definitely - by end of the year, it'll be a car with old battery tech, lacking AP 3, and the old interior

I'm ok with that, I LOVE the current interior and if you buy FSD, they swap out the hardware to AP3. Old battery tech that gets me to 300+ miles is fine by me. When new battery techs makes a 150kWH or even a 120kWH possible, people will ditch their "old" 100Ds left and right and I'll be there to get one with all the options for $60K, can't wait!

 

[Jan Fiala]

100D will be NOT with free supercharging. 100D hit the markets already with the first vehicle owner supercharging, not the lifetime vehicle supercharging.

 

[darxsys]

A decent 75D with AP 2.0 with free SuperCharging and the refresh can be had for about $60-$65K via private seller or so. I'm guessing if I am somewhat patient, by September - December of this year I'll be able to get a 100D with all of the options I want including the following:

Premium Upgrade Package, Sub Zero Package, HiFi Sound, Hi Amp Charging, etc.

Realistic or a pipe dream? What say you?

Unrelated, but I haven’t seen a single AP2 free supercharging car for sale lately. Where to look?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

A decent 75D with AP 2.0 with free SuperCharging and the refresh can be had for about $60-$65K via private seller or so. I'm guessing if I am somewhat patient, by September - December of this year I'll be able to get a 100D with all of the options I want including the following:

Premium Upgrade Package, Sub Zero Package, HiFi Sound, Hi Amp Charging, etc.

Realistic or a pipe dream? What say you?

Why wait nine months? You can get a late 2016 AP2 S90D with free Supercharging for the low $70s today! Let me know if you have questions.

 

[brkaus]

100D will be NOT with free supercharging. 100D hit the markets already with the first vehicle owner supercharging, not the lifetime vehicle supercharging.

This is true. The only S100D models with transferable unlimited charging are the early P variety.

 

[Pinot.Noir]

I've not been paying very close attention to the rules on free Supercharging. If I have it now with my 100D, and I decide to upgrade to a new car, I lose it, correct? That would be a big incentive for me to keep my current car. I don't commute anymore since I retired, but I will be taking 3-4 long road trips a year, and the free Supercharging is a key component of those road trips. For that reason my 100D is worth more to me than it would be to a potential buyer, which is why some current owners may be hesitant to upgrade.

 

[tranzndance]

I've not been paying very close attention to the rules on free Supercharging. If I have it now with my 100D, and I decide to upgrade to a new car, I lose it, correct? That would be a big incentive for me to keep my current car. I don't commute anymore since I retired, but I will be taking 3-4 long road trips a year, and the free Supercharging is a key component of those road trips. For that reason my 100D is worth more to me than it would be to a potential buyer, which is why some current owners may be hesitant to upgrade.

If current owners are hesitant to upgrade, then it lowers supply of used cars, which could increase prices.

 

[ucmndd]

I've not been paying very close attention to the rules on free Supercharging. If I have it now with my 100D, and I decide to upgrade to a new car, I lose it, correct? That would be a big incentive for me to keep my current car. I don't commute anymore since I retired, but I will be taking 3-4 long road trips a year, and the free Supercharging is a key component of those road trips. For that reason my 100D is worth more to me than it would be to a potential buyer, which is why some current owners may be hesitant to upgrade.

Your understanding of the situation is basically correct, a new car would not have free unlimited supercharging.

Though I have to admit I’m continually confused by the repeated refrain that this is a major decision factor for people. Even if you’re taking 4 very long road trips at 2,000 miles apiece, that’s about $850 a year in supercharging fees at current average price of $0.32/kWh. The psychological effects have to be strong, as I don’t see any rational way that makes a hill of beans difference in operating costs on a $100k+ car.

 

[Pinot.Noir]

Even if you’re taking 4 very long road trips at 2,000 miles apiece, that’s about $850 a year in supercharging fees at current average price of $0.32/kWh.

Unless the price for Supercharging goes up, which is apparently quite possible. I can afford the $850, but why pay it if I don't have to? That's a case of really decent wine!

 

[ucmndd]

Unless the price for Supercharging goes up, which is apparently quite possible. I can afford the $850, but why pay it if I don't have to? That's a case of really decent wine!

As one who holds on to cars for quite a while and appreciates good wine, I fully agree.

But if it was time to upgrade, I just don’t know that I’d be hung up on this, certainly not to the point of it being a top factor in my decision.

 

[brkaus]

Unless the price for Supercharging goes up, which is apparently quite possible. I can afford the $850, but why pay it if I don't have to? That's a case of really decent wine!

The depreciation hit would be far more.

 

[Cheburashka]

Free Supercharging isn't that big of a deal unless you are doing lots of road trips.. Look at P85Ds. They have free Supercharging and the price still dropped like a rock, and it hasn't reached the bottom yet.

Let's assume you are doing 3000 road trip miles a year. That's a lot!

This is a really simple and rough calculation, but a 100D has a range of ~330 miles and a usable capacity of 94 kWh. So it will take you ~854 kWh of Supercharging to go that 3K miles. That's just $281/yr or $24 a month. Math is not 100% correct but close.

Unless you have time to kill at Superchargers, $24/month is negligible in the grand scheme of things.

AP2 cars will be abundant in a few months. Just wait until the 3yr leases run out.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

.
AP2 cars will be abundant in a few months. Just wait until the 3yr leases run out.

There are already AP2 cars with free lifetime Superchargers that transfers available now. No need to wait for an AP2 car without supercharging that only goes 30 more miles per charge.

 

[Pinot.Noir]

I will likely drive about 6000 miles on road trips in 2019. A lot of that is mountain driving as well. I also have a lead foot.

 

[GoEagles997]

100D will be NOT with free supercharging. 100D hit the markets already with the first vehicle owner supercharging, not the lifetime vehicle supercharging.

I can deal with that trade off if it's a 100D with everything else. I'm trying to figure out how to get into a 75D (which is a fine car), but my commute is way too long so 100D would be nice, just gotta be patient and save some more.

 

[whitex]

Will there be some, sure (if you had a 100D with 200K miles today it would be there). Will all be there, probably not. Then there is a chance tha inflation will catch up too, offsetting some of the depreciation in absolute dollar value.