callmesam
Member
Hi there,
1. Still, I think that it remains to be seen if Tesla is able to make money at all. These numbers regarding battery cost are way to optimistic in my opinion.
2. Some numbers: Based on Tesla's 3rd quarter report the cost to build and manufacturer (that is including every cost except R&D and sales) one Model S is at app. 95.000$ with an average selling price of app. 112.000$ worldwide.
3. If Tesla wants to maintain their current strategy of selling cars directly to customer, they will have substantially higher sales cost over time. If you include R&D and sales, Tesla is still not making any money at present. Yet they will have to expand their point of sales massively to get anywhere close to the volumes they want to achieve. In Germany they have 3 shops at present. I say shops not dealerships because they are really tiny. The one in Munich has not more than 2 sales people.
4. Back to costs. I believe that even the hand-made Porsche Panamera is a lot cheaper to produce than the Tesla Model S. Porsche is making money on every car sold including the base model Boxster, starting at 50.000$ at the dealer. The Porsche Panamera is much more expensive, yet production costs are only slighly higher. Even a full sized Turbo S will not be more than app. 60.000$.
5. In 2012 during an Investor presentation Tesla gave a very short insight into the Model S' battery cost. They said, they expected it to be around 400$/kwh. That is including material, manufacturing and all cooling requirements related to the battery. If I take a look at the Q3 I believe this number is a lot more valid than the fantastic sub 200$ calculations.
6. Car manufacturing is a very complex, difficult process. Such a big battery has a very rich demand profile. It has to bee cooled, heated, it has to absorb shocks, accidents, standing water etc.......yet it also has to cope with incredble power and charging requirements. Under full load this battery will be empty within minutes. That's just the most demanding environment for a battery system you can think of.
Let's take each of your arguments and dismantle them:
1. Optimism: Hopefulness and confidence about the future or the successful outcome of something. Every fact has been sourced. If you have other sources, please provide.
2. 2012 Q3 is probably not the best source of an optimized manufacturing facility in Q1 of 2013. Tesla has ramped production, reduced labor costs by more than 40% and is no longer having supplier problems.
3. Gibberish. Tesla's costs for each sale are drastically lower than Ford (which spends >$3B on advertising)
4. See #2 above
5. Sandbagging. See #1
6. FUD. Tesla's batteries in the Roadster have performed well, no PACK failures and excellent durability and sustain of charge.