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Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by CapitalistOppressor, Jun 5, 2013.

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  1. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    It would need to be under 15 minutes:

    "2. New ZEV Type
    The Board directed creation of a new Type V ZEV. This is a vehicle with a 300 mile or greater range and 15-minute fast refueling capability"

    http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2008/zev2008/zevfsor.pdf
     
  2. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    Guys, there was good work being done in this thread. Let's not get distracted by opinions and conjecture. :)
     
  3. dmckinstry

    dmckinstry Model S - U.S. P - #1649

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    Well, if I correctly remember a figure I read on him, his I.Q. is ~165. That would technically makes him a genius.
     
  4. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Let's presume that they are being "conservative" the press release by only talking about customer vehicles (i.e. not test cells and alpha/beta vehicles).

    Napkin calculation (upper limit of VIN):
    100,000,000 / 15,000 ~= 6666 cells

    For 7000 cells per vehicle, it's 14285 cars.

    Seems to line up pretty well with the VINs we've been hearing lately.
     
  5. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    To be quite clear it would not be that difficult to design a machine that aligns with the pack support bolts and removes them all in a few seconds. Probably how it's installed at the factory. Or a couple of people with impact drivers doing the same thing in less than a minute. Realist is talking gibberish.
     
  6. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Well-Known Member

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    Yea..... But the PP is 1/2 the price of MS to produce........
     
  7. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    Diamlers, B-Class and Smart
    Toyota
    Gridstorage for Solarcity
     
  8. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    You are flat out wrong. Batteries are in fact replaced in service centers and it currently can be done with a group of people in less than half an hour. Although the battery is an important part of the structural rigidity while driving, it is simply bolted to the rest of the frame and easily removable. This has been documented by Tesla numerous times and is in fact apparent simply looking at the frame and battery that they display in their showrooms.
     
  9. renim

    renim Active Member

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    FWIW

    LG had a presentation in China a few years ago http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/5350/liion.gif (full link now broken), which included commodity cell pricing.

    It collaborates the $200/kWh as at 2010, assuming Tesla's NCA cells are more expensive than usual energy cells, but that prices have kept coming down, it would seem that first pass, $200/kWh is reasonable, with Tesla having the option to reduce that cost today if they were happy to use a lesser tier manufacturer and/or a lower energy density but safer chemistry (ie Mn2O4 blend).

    NCA is about the best for energy/power/or combinations thereof, but its not as safe some other chemistries.

    Future high energy chemistry are likely to have less power, so a hypothetical future 150kWh battery may only recharge at 60kW compared to a current 85kWh battery recharging at 120kW.
     
  10. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    If you are talking about the Berger Oct. 2012, "Lithium-ion batteries - The bubble bursts" report, first it uses his 2011 projected costs. He models the "typical 96 Wh PHEV cell" which, from his "Market Overview" presentation, is a NCM chemistry for which we already know is a much higher cost per kWh than Tesla's current solution. Interestingly enough, the overview report dues show a 2015 cell price breakdown for NCM chemistry that is $1.50 per cell for a 2.2Ah battery. Therefore, $2/cell for a "older tech" NCA battery is not out of the realm here. In either case, I think the market is gotten lower than these reports indicate.

    Which is why I am modeling at $5,000 integration cost per pack. Again, look at the National Geographic Tesla factory tour video, specifically the battery assembly portions. Can Tesla drive these costs down? Quite possibly because this part is under their direct control.

    You really went off the rails here. Again, look at the National Geographic Tesla Factory Tour video and look at how the battery is attached to the chassis. Removal is quite easy. I can understand that there is some confusion because the popular image is of the "skateboard" where they show just the battery and the suspension. There are two pictures in this photostream that better reflect the reality:

    Flickr: Beauty in Metal's Photostream
    Tesla Model S Chassis, Battery Detail | Flickr - Photo Sharing!
    Tesla Model S Chassis, Battery Detail | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

    The battery is bolted to the space frame.
     
  11. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    The quote I referenced specified Model S. So none of these would be included in the Panasonic number. Correct?
     
  12. marcon

    marcon Member

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    Don't think there has been any public disclosure of his IQ, so hard to judge. He obviously is very good at what he does.

    Do you really think that the admins in this forum would be unwilling to allow a demonstrably well-researched and referenced post?

    You mean a vehicle of the type: let's build a car with n wheels and n=4? Tesla started out looking at standard 18650 cells. There is quite a lot on Tesla's IP, including patents, in this thread, all quite well referenced:

    => Amazing Core Tesla Battery IP - 18650 Cell

    This is Tesla's core IP, how to deal with a complex battery system using cheap simplified cells.

    Laptop batteries don't last very long and are a relatively cheap component to replace compared to the cost of a good buissness notebook. Using an expensive, complex, fluid-based and heavy battery architecture in a wheight and price constrained Laptop doesn't make any sense. The cost of such a battery architecture doesn't just scale down linearly from a huge Tesla battery.


    These batteries are not assembled fully charged. You only deal with the high Voltage with a completely assembled battery, when in use. Obviously, there need to be high safety measures built into the battery architecture. Again, this is Tesla's own core IP and as Boing spectaculary demonstrated very difficult to get right, which gives Tesla a huge headstart compared to other manufacturers.

    It is true that an accident damaged EV battery can be a serious hazard and service personnell and emergency services will need to deal with that.

    You have, yet, to justify your numbers. Furthermore, do you think that the production cost of the Model S at this stage is representative of the price in let's say Q4 2013?

    Agreed.

    The battery pack has been designed to be swappable from the start. Even though it is a structural element, it is part of the final assembly of the car and bolted into the rest of the chasis from the outside. It is in fact installed "in seconds":

    => The Tesla Factory: Birthplace of the Model S | Blog | Tesla Motors

    1. It remain to be seen, how easily the battery is damaged in an accident. Looking at this forum there have been a couple of accidents reported and experienced and so far the general consensus seems to be that the Model S is built like a tank.
    2. That is pure speculation. "inevitable" - You haven't brought any convincing arguments to the table, why such a value collapse should occur, even when batteries might have to be replaced more readily after accidents. Either the battery is damaged and needs to be replaced or repaired, or it is whole, in which case the value of the car shouldn't suffer. Unless the Model S tanks in a major way, because of so far unknown serious short-comings, low wear and tear will garantee at least a reasonable resale value. Even if there is a share holder risk imminent in this guarantee, it is not necessarily catastrophic. Keep in mind that Tesla not only will be able to demand a higher resale price for a Model S in connection with extended manufacturer guarantee, than 3rd party vendors. But they also don't need to make any profit on this secondary market transaction, but just break roughly even.

    Tesla up-front battery replacement of $ 12.000 can be redeemed after 8 years only without paying a penalty, which is from 2020 onwards. Battery prices have a way to go before then. On the other hand the Blue Star 3rd Gen vehicle will have been out for a few years, producing further economies of scale.

    I really don't think you are doing your user name justice with the imminent pessimism displayed in this and your other posts. If you produced good sources to back all of this up, I might be more willing to listen to you.
     
  13. Realist

    Realist Member

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    The 95.000 $ number can easily be calculated using Teslas Q1 2013 numbers.

    Battery Swap. I have not seen a picture of the battery been attached to the Chassis.

    What I can see is the Body Panel structure been bolted on the Rolling Chassis. That is indeed very easy but also something completely different.

    Furthermore, attaching the battery to the chassis in a matter of seconds may no work the other way round.

    If Tesla proves otherwise my arguments are false. Agreed.
     
  14. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    #134 JRP3, Jun 13, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 13, 2016
    Jump to the 41:30 mark and get a quick look at them bolting the pack into place. I can't imagine what would make you think it could not be unbolted just as easily.

     
  15. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Well-Known Member

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    It is truly a shame that the high quality flow of well thought through analysis has been interrupted by Realist's comments and the retorts that follow. Please allow CO and others to return this thread to its origins. Realist should loose interest in posting if no one responds (he obviously is not reading or understanding the content of the other posts).

    As for CO and others contributing, thank you; this thread is a pleasure to read.
     
  16. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    No. They do not. The explicitly state that they are not providing the cost of their battery. The "indication" you are talking about is a thought-bubble containing the citation, which is clearly not a part of the graph. How you see that as a disclosure that they proactively affirm they are not making escapes me.

    It is becoming increasingly mysterious to me as to why I should take you seriously when you refuse to present evidence to support your case while relying on an investor graphic which explicitly refutes your point.

    Tesla_Presentation_-_Spring_2012-20.jpg
     
  17. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    First thought is, nice post!

    The critical issue is of course cost. I'm pretty sure you can make a Gen III right now using the Panasonic NCR18650B 3400mAh cells if the cost was right. The problem is that there must be some lower bound that is based on the combination of materials costs and manufacturing costs. And they are kinda locked in on the materials that are used for that battery, and there probably isn't a ton of improvement to be had on manufacturing it.

    So if the current "collapsed" price is not cheap enough, they probably need a more efficient design to get the cost savings they need. When I look at the research there is a lot of talk about improving the films and separators that are used in order to reduce costs, and there are potential cost savings to be had from a chemistry which uses inexpensive ingredients.

    Getting all of those moving pieces to fall into place with a battery that otherwise matches (or exceeds) the performance characteristics of the 3400mAh cell is the core expertise of companies like Panasonic. And it seems very likely that they are very advanced into the prototyping stages for the cell that Tesla will use (prototyping both the cell and the manufacturing/logistical processes).

    There isn't really any need for moonshot batteries that are being talked about in R&D labs. This is just an engineering and management problem at this point.

    Or, there is the alternative scenario where the 3400mAh cell has fallen to ~$1.50/cell already. That seems improbable, but at that price you can probably build a Gen III with a true 300 mile range for ~$50k (using 6,432 batteries) and a 240+ mile car using 5,184 batteries for ~$40k.

    I've posted ads for these batteries that listed $1.8-$3.2 and even $1-$3. The implied price from the 2012 IEK report would be ~$2.50/cell, if you assume that this was the most expensive cell in their sample. So the question is whether they've fallen from that level (or heck, the price might have gone up and the ads are a worthless indicator).
     
  18. austinEV

    austinEV Supporting Member

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    CO, sorry if I missed it, but what do you estimate the current cost of the 85kWh pack then? It sounds like you think I am low balling it.
     
  19. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    #139 NigelM, Jun 17, 2013
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2013
    It's a open forum (within reason).

    Let's have everyone try to stay on topic in any case.
     
  20. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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