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Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate

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They are using lower capacity, (less energy dense), cells, since weight is not much of a concern for stationary storage. However, since the cells are presumably made on the same production lines there could still be some impact on availability of vehicle cells, though I expect only to a small degree. I suppose it is possible that the lower capacity cells are made on an older production line not involved in the production of the higher capacity cells.
 
They are using lower capacity, (less energy dense), cells, since weight is not much of a concern for stationary storage. However, since the cells are presumably made on the same production lines there could still be some impact on availability of vehicle cells, though I expect only to a small degree. I suppose it is possible that the lower capacity cells are made on an older production line not involved in the production of the higher capacity cells.

Even if made on the same line, I doubt there's any effect as the limitations are not related to the line or production but to the the cell source availability ala Panasonic
 
Interesting data point: claimed average price for li-ion was $320 per kWh this year.

That price include all form factors, but keep in mind that 18650 is cheaper then average. And Tesla volume is much higher then average too, implying additional discounts.

On a side note, China propelled into being second biggest li-ion producer in the world, taking over Japan this year. Koreans who took over Japan just couple years ago are still in the lead.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20131205PD206.html
 
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@CapitalistOppressor. This video might help confirm your cost estimates. Elon reluctantly lets slip the approximate battery cost at 30-35% of the cost of the car, which I think is in the ball park of your estimate.

Hope this helps. :smile:

According to this battery pack will be somewhere between 350-400 usd/kwh.
What I like about this video is how Elon downplayed Tesla success in order to calm down the fear of German buyers that by buying Model S they are killing jobs in Germany.
 
According to this battery pack will be somewhere between 350-400 usd/kwh.
What I like about this video is how Elon downplayed Tesla success in order to calm down the fear of German buyers that by buying Model S they are killing jobs in Germany.
It seems like Elon was indicating it was closer to 30-35% of the 40,000 Euro figure the interviewer threw out there. I get at the high end 40,000 * .35 = 14000 * 1.37 (conversion to USD) = $19,180. If we assume he is only talking 60kwh pack then $19,180/60 is approximatley $320/kwh. I think that is the absolute highest possible cost and I think that it only confirms the estimates in this thread are pretty accurate.
 
It seems like Elon was indicating it was closer to 30-35% of the 40,000 Euro figure the interviewer threw out there. I get at the high end 40,000 * .35 = 14000 * 1.37 (conversion to USD) = $19,180. If we assume he is only talking 60kwh pack then $19,180/60 is approximatley $320/kwh. I think that is the absolute highest possible cost and I think that it only confirms the estimates in this thread are pretty accurate.

Not sure I'd try to extrapolate from what Elon had to say in the interview because its hard to tell which number he is basing his estimate off. It could be 30% of the €40k battery price the interviewer gave, or 30% of €72k base price of the car (given by the interviewer). Or Elon might be thinking in terms of dollars meaning 30% of $72k.

It gets worse when you consider that there are two battery packs, but one of them accounts for almost 80% of sales (the 85kWh) which means when you think of the pack cost for the Model S you generally think in terms of the 85kWh pack, but the price the interviewer gave was for the 60kWh model, which might skew a quick attempt at mental math in the context of an interview.

But the most important thing to realize is that Elon is very sneaky and secretive, despite being so seemingly open about many things. He has a built in incentive to portray the battery as being cheaper than the public realizes, but also to portray it as being more expensive than it actually is. The ambiguity in the pack price is deliberate, and has been being cultivated for years by Tesla. When you factor those incentives in, I'd expect any statement by Elon to be both ambiguous, and to point to a higher number than reality.

That is even more true when you consider that Straubel has previously stated that the price of the pack is "much less" than 25% of the price of the car "in most cases", and he was unambiguously thinking in terms of the U.S. price of the car (as opposed to €72k Euros, or the €40k pack cost given by this interviewer) . That underlying cost doesn't change just because the car was put on a boat and floated over to Europe and given a higher price in Euros. So the 30% number (let alone 35%) is almost certainly wildly high if you are trying to calculate the pack cost in Euros.

- - - Updated - - -

Just a quick notice, I updated the OP with an estimate based on the 3.4ah/7,000 cell pack that we now think Tesla is using. I did this because I still see a lot of folks out in the internet who are referencing the OP but not reading the thread. If folks are going to cite my post I at least want it to reflect the numbers that I currently use myself.
 
Not sure I'd try to extrapolate from what Elon had to say in the interview because its hard to tell which number he is basing his estimate off. It could be 30% of the €40k battery price the interviewer gave, or 30% of €72k base price of the car (given by the interviewer). Or Elon might be thinking in terms of dollars meaning 30% of $72k.

It gets worse when you consider that there are two battery packs, but one of them accounts for almost 80% of sales (the 85kWh) which means when you think of the pack cost for the Model S you generally think in terms of the 85kWh pack, but the price the interviewer gave was for the 60kWh model, which might skew a quick attempt at mental math in the context of an interview.

But the most important thing to realize is that Elon is very sneaky and secretive, despite being so seemingly open about many things. He has a built in incentive to portray the battery as being cheaper than the public realizes, but also to portray it as being more expensive than it actually is. The ambiguity in the pack price is deliberate, and has been being cultivated for years by Tesla. When you factor those incentives in, I'd expect any statement by Elon to be both ambiguous, and to point to a higher number than reality.

That is even more true when you consider that Straubel has previously stated that the price of the pack is "much less" than 25% of the price of the car "in most cases", and he was unambiguously thinking in terms of the U.S. price of the car (as opposed to €72k Euros, or the €40k pack cost given by this interviewer) . That underlying cost doesn't change just because the car was put on a boat and floated over to Europe and given a higher price in Euros. So the 30% number (let alone 35%) is almost certainly wildly high if you are trying to calculate the pack cost in Euros.

Very good points about Elon's incentives.
I think that there is lots of space for price decrease in bsm and manufactoring proces of battery pack and that is low hangin fruit tesla is focusing on right now.
Even though on cell level battery is already well bellow 200 usd/kwh whole pack together with inverter still cost lot more than what they will with real mass production. I think good example would be installation of the to the car. In one of first videos from tesla production they showed few guys installing pack to the models in few minutes. Than less than one year later they presented automatic swap in 90seconds. There is probably lots of automatic machines that make economic sense with production over 15-20.000 cars a year.
I think that real mass production on the level of 100.000s/year will bring huge savings in production process and that is why Elon is so confident about possibility of compelling gen3 car. They will be at 200usd/kwh for whole system which give them almost 20.000 for rest of the car. And at that scale that is really doable:)
 
I've been using $320/kWh as the retail cost Tesla charges for the difference between the 60 and 85. It's the $10K price difference, minus the $2K SC access priced into the 85. However it was pointed out to me that the 85 also includes the $1K tire upgrade, which means the price difference is $10K-$2K-$1K = $7k / 25kWh = $280/kWh. That further invalidates any claims that Tesla's costs could be equal to or greater than that number, unless one makes the ridiculous assumption that Tesla decided to take a loss on the extra pack capacity pricing.
 
When calculating the cost per kWh, there is a cost per cell which translates into an incremental cost. And there is the cost of everything else in the battery pack assembly. Since the battery pack assembly is identical between the 60 and 85, all you are paying for is the incremental cell cost. Based on the incremental sell price, we know that the price for 25 kWh of cells is less than $7000. Far less, I would wager. We still don't have good visibility into the cost of an entire battery pack.
 
You can all stop the speculation! I was at Fry's and so I know the exact cost of an 18650 battery:

2013-12-19 18.46.50.jpg
 
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I've been using $320/kWh as the retail cost Tesla charges for the difference between the 60 and 85. It's the $10K price difference, minus the $2K SC access priced into the 85. However it was pointed out to me that the 85 also includes the $1K tire upgrade, which means the price difference is $10K-$2K-$1K = $7k / 25kWh = $280/kWh. That further invalidates any claims that Tesla's costs could be equal to or greater than that number, unless one makes the ridiculous assumption that Tesla decided to take a loss on the extra pack capacity pricing.

Good point about the tires being included.

Interesting anecdote - a few days ago an industry source informed me that Panasonic is charging Tesla 50% of what they are charging the typical laptop makers, largely because Tesla is ordering in huge volumes and allows Panasonic to run their factories 24/7, which obviously makes the total business hugely profitable based on their recent quarterly reports.

Considering that I've gotten quotes at ~$350/kWh from several Chinese wholesalers who sell these batteries, that takes us back to ~$175/kWh, which would drive the total pack cost closer to the $200/kWh level. That would put us under the constraint from Straubel in the MIT interview (much less than 25% of "most" models) because we'd be under 25% of every model. However, the cost of the 85kWh battery is almost exactly 25% of the cost of the 60kWh car, so if we allow for some imprecision in the wording, even that constraint isn't violated.