Model S "CPO" vs. Standard Model 3?

[Rogue Synapse]

Hi all,

Long-time lurker, first-time poster. I need some advice on car selection. I've had a Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive since 2014, and my (second) lease is up this October. The car is terrific and drives great (motor and battery made by Tesla, after all), but as an EV, it's a total compliance car and it's totally hamstrung. Range is about 85 (in the summer - way worse in the winter). No fast-charging capabilities. And worst of all, it was sold only in the CARB states, so it's utterly orphaned here in North Carolina, and getting service for it has been a nightmare (I had it shipped to me here, which I wouldn't do again in retrospect).

So, when my lease is finally up for good in October, I need another EV. I couldn't possibly go back to a hybrid (drove one for 10 years before my EV), even a PHEV. I've been a rabid Model S fan ever since I first drove one in 2013. The Model 3 is also very compelling and seems a little more fun to drive, though the extra size of the Model S seems a little more kid-friendly (love the hatchback compared to the Model 3's trunk).

My biggest problem is that financially, I can only afford $35,000 or maaayyyybe $40,000 for an EV. Because I will never again get an EV that can't be sold and serviced in NC, that limits my options to the Bolt (decent choice, but feels cheap and the seats are terrible), BMW i3 (back seat not practical for my kids, also range is lacking), LEAF (range a little more reasonable, just not that excited about the car), and of course Tesla (the obvious winner in terms of range, even in the base models). The caveat is that in 5-7 years, when my massive student loans are finally paid off, I will be able to comfortably afford a new Tesla.

Ideally, I would get a used Model S (wish they were still truly CPO). Would only consider getting through Tesla because I think the extended warranty is crucial. There are only a handful of MS in my price range, typically 60s or 2012-2013 85s. I would really love to get dual motor because I live in the mountains, but there is only occasionally a 70D around $40k on ev-cpo, definitely not $35k. Alternatively, I could wait out the standard Model 3, which seems likely to make its debut before I have to get a new car in October. I actually had a M3 early reservation, but I got it refunded in early 2018 when it was clear that I was only going to be able to get a very expensive M3 any time soon.

What's your take? Is getting a mid-mileage, used Model S from the earlier generations where a lot of bugs were still being worked out worth the extra range compared to a standard Model 3? The extra range of a 60 compared to a standard M3 won't be that much, but the extra cargo room and backseat space of an S are really desirable. Any other ideas or recommendations?

 

[Troy]

What's your take? Is getting a mid-mileage, used Model S from the earlier generations where a lot of bugs were still being worked out worth the extra range compared to a standard Model 3?

The Model S 85 range number was over-advertised by 9%. The rated range of S85 should have been 244 miles according to EPA tests instead of 265 miles. However, before production started in 2012, Tesla said the car would have 300 miles range. See this article from 2009.

To be fair, it was expected to achieve 300 miles but EPA made the test more realistic. Tesla could have said, look EPA changed the test, that's the score, let's move on. Instead, they decided to use alternative multipliers to convert EPA dyno test scores to EPA range numbers to intentionally inflate the score. That's how 265 miles was achieved.

In comparison, the Model 3 LR achieved over 330 miles EPA range but Tesla decided to voluntarily lower it to 310 miles. My guess is they have done this because they wanted to advertise the same number (310 miles) for LR, LRD and P versions even though the LRD and P actually have 309 miles EPA range. See the relevant article here.

Anyway, don't trust the advertised range numbers. Check out the range table here. A new Model S 85 has 218 miles range at 75 mph. However, you should expect 95% capacity left when buying used. That means 207 miles. In comparison, the $35,000 Model 3 is expected to have 208 miles range at 75 mph. Below the range table, I explained how I calculated Model 3 SR's range from the leaked cell count number.

 

[aerodyne]

Not sure if range will be the most important factor to the OP. 85D actual consumption and range is very close to EPA. I am able to use Teslafi on my PO 2105 MS, have 307 Wh/mile over 7k miles, most cruising over 65-85 mph. Predicted range on mine has decreased less than a mile after 27k on the odometer. Used will have lower depreciation and insurance costs

 

[Rogue Synapse]

Range is not the main driving point, though more is better obviously. I am going from a 28 kWh battery in the B-class, which itself is one of the most inefficient EVs ever made (it's a >4000 lb. CUV). Anything will be a drastic improvement and will take me out of the category of having to carefully plan my trips outside of my immediate city, to having more flexibility.

Rather than focusing purely on the range, I'm hoping to get a sense of the overall impression of the value of a 2014-or-older model S versus a new base model 3, assuming it actually does materialize at $35k (surely without AP and with a range of 200 miles - but again see above; 200 miles is a game-changer for me). Are the notorious mechanical issues worth it? If you were in my position, would you spring for a $35-40k used model S (meaning, lower spec, mileage 50-75k, missing AP hardware) or buy a new model 3, assuming the affordable version is actually obtainable by October? You KNOW that $35k model 3 is going to be quite Spartan and basic, but it's still a terrific car, right?

 

[Takumi]

Didn't read OP thoroughly, but if ingress/egress is an issue, I propose the Model X.

With the Model S, I tend to bump my children's head on the door opening while trying to put them in their car seat.
I have no daily experience with the Model 3, but I think the back seat is easier for ingress/egress.

The hatch is nice, but Model 3 AP hardware is something to consider.

But if children (with car seats)are involved, I definitely recommend the X.

 

[aerodyne]

If cost is a primary concern, you need to do a spreadsheet and compare.

Older MS will depreciation slower, cost less to insure, and FUSC makes up for less range and lower efficiency.

I rented both a M3 and older MS on turo. Went with MS 2015 85D. Drove x country, over the Rockies in snow, 4500 miles, 311wh/miles. Took it out of chill mode for the first time yesterday. With 3 adults in the car, measured 0-60 in 4 sec flat

If the costs are about the same, rent both on Turo and compare. The cost to rent for 60 days is about the same as owning for a year.

 

[suwaneedad]

Range is not the main driving point, though more is better obviously. I am going from a 28 kWh battery in the B-class, which itself is one of the most inefficient EVs ever made (it's a >4000 lb. CUV). Anything will be a drastic improvement and will take me out of the category of having to carefully plan my trips outside of my immediate city, to having more flexibility.

Rather than focusing purely on the range, I'm hoping to get a sense of the overall impression of the value of a 2014-or-older model S versus a new base model 3, assuming it actually does materialize at $35k (surely without AP and with a range of 200 miles - but again see above; 200 miles is a game-changer for me). Are the notorious mechanical issues worth it? If you were in my position, would you spring for a $35-40k used model S (meaning, lower spec, mileage 50-75k, missing AP hardware) or buy a new model 3, assuming the affordable version is actually obtainable by October? You KNOW that $35k model 3 is going to be quite Spartan and basic, but it's still a terrific car, right?

I can't imagine that a $35k Model 3 will be available when your lease matures in October.
I expect there will be Model 3 SRs by October, but I don't think we'll see $35k SRs by then. I expect Tesla will be in SR+PUP mode at that time, and likely in limited quantities in order to keep overall average selling price across Tesla from being too hurt by the SR, in order to preserve overall Tesla quarterly profits as Elon has stated is a major goal of his. I think $35k 3s are going to trickle out for these reasons, and only ever be offered to those who placed deposits early in the game (perhaps as late as March 2018, if Tesla is feeling generous) so that Tesla can fulfill its commitments and then get the base SR priced where it ought to be given inflation/etc since the $35k figure was thrown out there years ago.
Let alone the low odds that you'll be able to obtain one before your lease ends, even if they are available.

If I were you, I'd be spending my time planning for your used S, and if lightning happens to strike for you and a $35k 3 can happen in time for you then it is easy to change horses.

 

[aerodyne]

To the OP...at least 5 MS cars on EV-CPO site under 36K now.

 

[BrokerDon]

We've owned a Ludicrous 2015 P85D+ (Plus Suspension) for 3.5 years and love it. Our son and his wife decided to buy a $50k Tesla and went through the same MS vs. M3 decision you did. They decided on the M3 because:

1. M3 has AP 2.5 vs. AP 1.0 on $50k MS. AP 2.5 drives smoother than AP 1.0... and will continue to get better. PLUS AP 2.5 can provide FULL Autonomous Driving while AP 1.0 is Semi-Autonomous at best
2. M3 screen refreshes a LOT faster than older MS
3. M3 is much more nimble to park & drive
4. $50k M3 performance is similar to used $50k MS
5. M3 has $3,750 federal tax credit + $2,500 CA rebate = $6,250 "discount" off M3 purchase price so $50,000 CPO MS = $56,250 M3

Don't get me wrong, we LOVE our Ludicrous 2015 P85D+ BUT if we were buying a new $50k Tesla today we'd buy a new M3, not a CPO MS. We'll consider buying another MS when Tesla does a significant body / drivetrain / battery upgrade... but in the interim our Ludicrous 2015 P85D+ B is WAY too much fun to drive to trade in on a Ludicrous MS Ludicrous 2015 P100D which lacks our sporty Plus Suspension... and the additional Ludicrous power for $60,000 trade-up cost only makes passengers MORE queasy after Ludicrous launches. Makes no sense IMHO.

 

[aerodyne]

I agree about new MS vs Old. Was tempted with a '19 Red MS recently. But, the price and recurring costs were double.

Note, the OP has a budget constraint. Although you have a point with tax credits, they are one time and the FUSC is for life.

 

[nativespinner]

So I did what you are inquiring about. I wanted a 35k Model 3 due to it being affordable but I didn't get on the reservation list. So in early 2018 I started researching buying used or CPO Model S. I figured it was going to be another year or two before I would own a Model 3 and I wanted another car sooner. I found a CPO 2013 S60 on onlyusedtesla dot com. The price was right and the warranty transferred since it was a private owner sale. Warranty if good until March 2021 or 98k miles. I love this car. I didn't feel a need for auto pilot so that's a non issue. Only options missing are 21"wheels, sunroof, and of course bigger battery but I really haven't needed the extra range. I do have unlimited supercharging. The hatch has plenty of room and so does the frunk since it's a RWD. Let me know if you have any questions.

 

[erik_k]

If you’ve got months just chill. I watched a CPO 2015 S70D drop to $40,800 last night via EV-CPO and of course someone grabbed it within 5 minutes.
By late summer I imagine you’ll have no trouble finding a 70D for at or under $40k. Since CPO can have very functional AP1 and many have 4Y/50k miles (the one last night did) I think that’s a great value to last you a few years.
Since I live in MS I’m waiting and will try to coordinate a CPO purchase/delivery this summer when I’m out in Tahoe late July.

 

[erik_k]

If you’ve got months just chill. I watched a CPO 2015 S70D drop to $40,800 last night via EV-CPO and of course someone grabbed it within 5 minutes.
By late summer I imagine you’ll have no trouble finding a 70D for at or under $40k. Since CPO can have very functional AP1 and many have 4Y/50k miles (the one last night did) I think that’s a great value to last you a few years.
Since I live in MS I’m waiting and will try to coordinate a CPO purchase/delivery this summer when I’m out in Tahoe late July.

Looks like the one I watched last night is back online.
Model S 70D 5YJSA1E22FF117353 | Tesla
I just used EV-CPO to look for 4Y/50k warranty, “D”/AWD and AP1 hardware. Quite a few in the lower 40ks.

 

[aerodyne]

erik_k +1

 

[vickh]

Not sure if range will be the most important factor to the OP. 85D actual consumption and range is very close to EPA. I am able to use Teslafi on my PO 2105 MS, have 307 Wh/mile over 7k miles, most cruising over 65-85 mph. Predicted range on mine has decreased less than a mile after 27k on the odometer. Used will have lower depreciation and insurance costs

i agree with lower depreciation but insurance costs are based on full MSRP value, right? Altleast in my case( USAA) M3 costs were about half compared to CPO 15. I even used VINs for better estimates

 

[vickh]

FUSC is very tempting to me too. Is there a calculator to determine miles to savings to truly determine worth?

 

[vickh]

The Model S 85 range number was over-advertised by 9%. The rated range of S85 should have been 244 miles according to EPA tests instead of 265 miles. However, before production started in 2012, Tesla said the car would have 300 miles range. See this article from 2009.

To be fair, it was expected to achieve 300 miles but EPA made the test more realistic. Tesla could have said, look EPA changed the test, that's the score, let's move on. Instead, they decided to use alternative multipliers to convert EPA dyno test scores to EPA range numbers to intentionally inflate the score. That's how 265 miles was achieved.

In comparison, the Model 3 LR achieved over 330 miles EPA range but Tesla decided to voluntarily lower it to 310 miles. My guess is they have done this because they wanted to advertise the same number (310 miles) for LR, LRD and P versions even though the LRD and P actually have 309 miles EPA range. See the relevant article here.

Anyway, don't trust the advertised range numbers. Check out the range table here. A new Model S 85 has 218 miles range at 75 mph. However, you should expect 95% capacity left when buying used. That means 207 miles. In comparison, the $35,000 Model 3 is expected to have 208 miles range at 75 mph. Below the range table, I explained how I calculated Model 3 SR's range from the leaked cell count number.

it's interesting dual drives/ 85D is a lot closer to the advertised range

 

[aerodyne]

Not that I am aware. Because there are many variables that depend on usage and costs, such as:

Miles driven
Marginal Kw/cost
% of SC vs wall charging
TOU plan/Solar/Powerwall
Other free charging sources

I made my own spreadsheet that compared various new used Teslas, and the aging family ICE fleet. Will share if desired.

For Tessa, (2015 MS 85D), it works out to about $0.035 per mile. I have no solar/powerwall or other regular free charging, so assuming:

300 wh/mi
10000 miles per year
50% SC, 50% wall at $0.23/KwH

so, about $345 per year. Not that much really, about 1/4 the insurance, and 1/20th the depreciation.

 

[vickh]

Yes please share the spreadsheet. TIA

 

[aerodyne]

it's interesting dual drives/ 85D is a lot closer to the advertised range

It is interesting, you would think two motors and a heavier car would not allow that. The reason being the EPA ratings assume Range Mode is employed. This allows the higher powered motor to "sleep" .

At the risk of sounding biased (I am a little) I think the 2015 MS, esp the 85D, is the best deal out there. Built after the initial problems, and before production hell.