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Model S Decimates Large Premium/Luxury Car Market

More up to date data.

BMW Group sales up 7.5 percent worldwide in January

[FONT=proxima_nova_rgbold]BMW[/FONT][FONT=proxima_novalight] sales increased by 7.5%, with a total of 133,883 units delivered around the world in January. A variety of models throughout the range achieved significant sales growth. The BMW 1 Series increased sales by 22.9% (12,324) while the new BMW X1 grew sales of that model by 60.4% compared with the same month last year (14,308). Combined sales of the BMW 2 Series Active and Gran Tourers in January reached 8,249 units. The BMW X family remains increasingly popular in all vehicle classes: sales of the BMW X3 increased by 16.6% (10,777) while sales of the BMW X6 increased 24.2% (3,587). The brand’s flagship, the new BMW 7 Series, achieved a 26.3% increase on sales compared with the same month last year – a total of 3,392 were delivered to customers around the world. Globally, 1,255 BMW i vehicles were delivered to customers.

And I agree the S class is really more of an MB E -class, or BMW 5 series competitor.
Hell, the interior is more of a 3 series/C class competitor.
.[/FONT]
 
More up to date data.

BMW Group sales up 7.5 percent worldwide in January

[FONT=proxima_nova_rgbold]BMW[/FONT][FONT=proxima_novalight] sales increased by 7.5%, with a total of 133,883 units delivered around the world in January. A variety of models throughout the range achieved significant sales growth. The BMW 1 Series increased sales by 22.9% (12,324) while the new BMW X1 grew sales of that model by 60.4% compared with the same month last year (14,308). Combined sales of the BMW 2 Series Active and Gran Tourers in January reached 8,249 units. The BMW X family remains increasingly popular in all vehicle classes: sales of the BMW X3 increased by 16.6% (10,777) while sales of the BMW X6 increased 24.2% (3,587). The brand’s flagship, the new BMW 7 Series, achieved a 26.3% increase on sales compared with the same month last year – a total of 3,392 were delivered to customers around the world. Globally, 1,255 BMW i vehicles were delivered to customers.[/FONT][FONT=proxima_novalight]

And I agree the S class is really more of an MB E -class, or BMW 5 series competitor.
Hell, the interior is more of a 3 series/C class competitor.
.[/FONT]

Still their growth is at least 43% below Tesla :)

The only thing that gives me hope in that report is that their i-sales are up almost 23%. So they know there is tremendous EV demand.
 

sorka

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
9,997
8,138
Merced, CA
Mercedes is apparently finally working on a smaller EV the size of the C Class to compete with the Model 3 and it is expected to be out in about 2-3 years. However they will not have a larger EV in the segment of the S Class and the Model S for another 4-5 years. They kept telling themselves customers were not ready for a premium long range Ev when it turns out only Mercedes was not ready for such a vehicle.

Not seeing how anything is going to compete against the Model 3 without a dedicated public charging network. The Supercharger network really is the best thing going for tesla as a vaccination against competition.
 
That article (written by an investor who was short on TSLA) is about 2014 sales, when the S Class got a 5 year cycle new model bump, and did sell better than the Model S.

And yet that is not what was reported at the time - this article disputes what was reported - that is the point
(I don't care if he is short, facts are facts, I look at them not discount longs or shorts for presenting them - not into shooting them messenger).

However, this thread is about 2015 sales, in which the S class has slowed

Yes, I know. that is why I wrote "before".

As for slowing, you do know that 2014 was a huge bump right, so "slowing" is relative.

Here are the numbers for the US S Sales.
2011 12,258
2012 11,794
2013 13,303
2014 25,276
2015 21,934

So with that context it is a bit silly to have some schadenfreude over a decline in 2015 sales. They killed it in 2014 and are way ahead of their historical production. It is not unusual to have a huge bump like that if they can actually keep up with production and then a decline the next year. Product cycles. How do they work?


I think the interesting question is if people think that Tesla got their sales by decimating this segment, where exactly are the 90,000 sales going to come from in 2016?
Are they going to have 45% of this segment (assuming 50% sales in US)?
Or are they going to grow this segment?
Or are they getting those sales from a lower priced segment?

 
And yet that is not what was reported at the time - this article disputes what was reported - that is the point
(I don't care if he is short, facts are facts, I look at them not discount longs or shorts for presenting them - not into shooting them messenger).

[/COLOR]
Yes, I know. that is why I wrote "before".

As for slowing, you do know that 2014 was a huge bump right, so "slowing" is relative.

Here are the numbers for the US S Sales.
2011 12,258
2012 11,794
2013 13,303
2014 25,276
2015 21,934

So with that context it is a bit silly to have some schadenfreude over a decline in 2015 sales. They killed it in 2014 and are way ahead of their historical production. It is not unusual to have a huge bump like that if they can actually keep up with production and then a decline the next year. Product cycles. How do they work?


I think the interesting question is if people think that Tesla got their sales by decimating this segment, where exactly are the 90,000 sales going to come from in 2016?
Are they going to have 45% of this segment (assuming 50% sales in US)?
Or are they going to grow this segment?
Or are they getting those sales from a lower priced segment?


International expansion. Musk mentioned they are opening in Mexico this year. Also Tesla has set up a company in Korea which has one of the largest markets for large luxury sedans in the world.

Mercedes sold over 10,000 S-Classes in South Korea in 2015(Mercedes sells more S-Classes in Korea than in their home country of Germany).
 
Haha, I love the use of the statistics to mislead people.

I strongly doubt the Model S is responsible for that much of the "stolen" sales.

Who said that Tesla isn't good at marketing?

Their lowest price car is $58k after incentives.
They then compare it to sales and the overall market that includes the S Class whose lowest price car is $95k.
(the difference between their highest price cars is even more dramatic - 120k vs. 240k)

Wow.
Just wow.
 

bollar

Disgruntled Member
May 1, 2013
2,667
882
Southlake, TX
Here are the numbers for the US S Sales.
2014 25,276
2015 21,934

So with that context it is a bit silly to have some schadenfreude over a decline in 2015 sales. They killed it in 2014 and are way ahead of their historical production. It is not unusual to have a huge bump like that if they can actually keep up with production and then a decline the next year. Product cycles. How do they work?
There are other factors impacting the 2015 number. Mercedes replaced the CL-Class with the S-Class Coupe (C217) in 2015 and presumably that new vehicle is now included in 2015's figure.
 
The comparison made seems to be inappropriate. Before I bought a Tesla, I had an Audi. It was an A7. Before that, I had an A5. Before that, a Mercedes E350, and before that a few BMW 5 series. The better comparison for Model S sales would be, using BMW as an example, the 7, 6 and 5 series. Those are the BMW models I would consider if I were to get rid of my P85D. Likewise, were I to look at Mercedes, I'd look at CLS, E, and S classes. In my experience (and I've had two Model S vehicles), other than maybe weight and price, the Model S is much more like the 5 series/E class than the 7 Series/S class.
 
Still their growth is at least 43% below Tesla :)

The only thing that gives me hope in that report is that their i-sales are up almost 23%. So they know there is tremendous EV demand.

The percent may seem impressive, but both the MS and i series are starting with small numbers, so it's easy to have a big percent jump. Encouraging for sure, but not impressive, IMO.

BMW screwed themselves with the short range of the i3- most sales are with the range extender. They have a 120 mile range all electric model in the works and an MS competitor that should be impressive if it's got a carbon fiber tub, like the other i-cars. That's when Tesla really better up their game to be competitive, especially with Porsche jumping in the all electric game in a few years.
.
 
It just seems like most people buy the Model S because it's the only long-range BEV out there, and for many, the only EV worth driving.

I suppose, and will admit, I fall within this category, ORIGINALLY. The Model S has ruined me for Econo-Boxes, however, if the Nissan Leaf did minimum 200 miles on a charge, back in 2013 when I bought the Model S, I'd be driving a leaf right now instead of the Model S.

Though, I have seen the light, of the slightly more Luxurious (Not full Lux, but semi-lux), and don't think I could go back now :( Maybe a Model III though...
 

ecarfan

Well-Known Member
Moderator
I think the interesting question is if people think that Tesla got their sales by decimating this segment, where exactly are the 90,000 sales going to come from in 2016?
You have neglected to take into account that by the end of Q2 Tesla will be producing and selling about 1,000 or more Model X every week, and taking luxury SUV sales from MB/BMW/AUDI/VW/Porsche/Lexus, etc.
In 2016 Tesla is no longer a one product company limited to selling a full size sedan. The luxury CUV/SUV market in the US is larger than the full size sedan market.
 

CarlK

Active Member
Mar 23, 2013
1,919
1,406
SF Bay Area
I know everyone likes to compare the Model S to the 7-series and S-class, but I just don't really get it. The Model S starts at $70k ($60k with rebate). The 7-series starts at $81k. The S-class starts at $95k. The 7-series and S-class are considerably more luxurious than a Model S. The build quality, material quality, and just overall creature-comforts are not anywhere near luxury car standards in a Model S. So why is it being compared to them?

The 7-series and S-class are both 10 inches longer than the Model S. Strictly based on size, it's a lot more similar to a 5-series or an E-class.

So the cheaper, less luxurious, smaller Model S is outselling the more expensive, more luxurious, bigger luxury cars? Ok...

I'm not taking anything away from Tesla, it's still quite an accomplishment, but the comparison is simply not apples to apples.

---

On a side note, is there any data on the number of people who actually cross-shop the S-class and the Model S? I remember seeing something about one of the most popular previous cars for Model S owners is a Prius. I find it hard to believe that Prius owners are considering an S-class and choosing a Model S instead. It just seems like a different market and different segment of people. I know when you look at that table it looks like Tesla is stealing luxury market share, but isn't it possible that the luxury market is simply shrinking and Tesla is finding buyers from other segments?

It just seems like most people buy the Model S because it's the only long-range BEV out there, and for many, the only EV worth driving. I find it highly suspect that people are buying the Model S because it's a "luxury" car. Especially when you look at polls on this forum where people tell you this is the most expensive car they've ever purchased, or that they would have never spent anywhere near this kind of money on any other car. Those aren't "luxury" car buyers, but they seem representative of the typical Tesla owner.

You are only partially right. There may be previous Prius or Odyssey owners buying the S but there are many Audi, BMW, MB or even Porsche owners like myself who replaced their car with a MS. Even for the former type buyers the fact is still those luxury or performance brands could not attract people usually don't spend that much on a car but Tesla could. Majority of them are buying it because it's such a compelling car not because it's an EV. Tesla has beaten everyone in its own game.

You have neglected to take into account that by the end of Q2 Tesla will be producing and selling about 1,000 or more Model X every week, and taking luxury SUV sales from MB/BMW/AUDI/VW/Porsche/Lexus, etc.
In 2016 Tesla is no longer a one product company limited to selling a full size sedan. The luxury CUV/SUV market in the US is larger than the full size sedan market.

Has anyone tried to put an X side by side with a Cayenne and better (or worse for Porsche) yet drive each? I'm pretty sure many executives in Stuttgart has been losing sleeps lately. The car they have been relied on as a cash cow will no longer be. So would be executives of other company you mentioned.
 
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