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Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing

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I'm Sig 1058, and got a personal response from George earlier this week regarding some issues (mostly communication related and Sig value proposition), and then today got a response from my Delivery Specialist that adds 2-4 weeks onto my already delayed delivery window, potentially putting me at (in his words) "by the end of November".
 
A personal communication will be going out today to all Signature reservation holders that have not received their car (or are scheduled to receive their car in the next few days). This communication will explain at a high level what has happened and what will happen going forward.

Well my car apparently is with logistics to send it to Florida; I'm guessing that delivery will be a week away at the earliest but in any case it's far enough out that we don't have a date yet. Just background to say that I didn't receive the communication mail GB referenced. Maybe the recipient parameters need to be looked at?
 
I'm not asking for precision, but rather a guide to help me decide, for example, whether I need to shift income to 2013 in order to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit. If anybody who can shed some light on this process/formula, I would be most grateful.

This puts a spotlight on us 60/40kwh folks. Does the sliding of the delivery window push the 60/40kwh folks to 2013 wherein we would claim the credit in 2013?
 
This puts a spotlight on us 60/40kwh folks. Does the sliding of the delivery window push the 60/40kwh folks to 2013 wherein we would claim the credit in 2013?

My guess: almost certainly!

:-:)crying:
Crying-Smiley.jpg
 
I'm Sig 1058, and got a personal response from George earlier this week regarding some issues (mostly communication related and Sig value proposition), and then today got a response from my Delivery Specialist that adds 2-4 weeks onto my already delayed delivery window, potentially putting me at (in his words) "by the end of November".
If Sig 1058 is delivered at the end of November, what is the likelihood that the highest P to be delivered in 2012 will be under 1000 (I am P983, so I care)? Obviously, the answer to this question depends on the ramp-up rate. But it also depends on several sequencing questions that have not yet been answered. Does TM need to produce 400+ Rs before it begins producing the Ps? What about the Canadian sigs? Official clarification of these questions would be most welcome.
 
Was there ever supposed to be a separation of "months" between sigs and P's? Delays or not they would have gone right into P production as the sigs wrapped up.

They need to build the non-US sig’s then the R’s then the P’s so yes there was an “undefined” gap that was marketed as US Sig’s get “early delivery” My view was maybe 2 months.
 
Well my car apparently is with logistics to send it to Florida; I'm guessing that delivery will be a week away at the earliest but in any case it's far enough out that we don't have a date yet. Just background to say that I didn't receive the communication mail GB referenced. Maybe the recipient parameters need to be looked at?

I sure hope we're on the same truck.....a week ago or so they gave me an "end of oct" update window, but I'm not trusting anyone until they tell me its on a truck that's in motion. I'm supposed to get a status update tomorrow.... Keith (S92)
 
Not to burst anyone's "now I'm going to get my car soon" bubble, but talked with a couple of folks at Tesla today as I have entered my already-been-revised-twice delivery window and have heard nothing. I'll spare you all the little details of having to get a new specialist b/c they can't talk directly to Texas customers anymore (possible lawsuits pending from dealers),
I knew they were trying to get away with something they couldn't get away with there. :p At least that was understandable, since Texas *prohibited* Tesla's business model. Tesla's other legal slip-ups are much less excusable.

So what exactly is Tesla doing about the "Texas problem"? I presume all cars are being sold, officially, from other states. Do you also have to pick 'em up in other states? That would be unsurprising.

and the "you mean he hasn't contacted you?" conversation. FYI I'm Sig #371, returned my MVPA the day I got it back in May. I've been pushed back 'again' to November (keep in mind was originally told end of August/beginning of September, then told end of Sept, then told Oct 17-31 "with it definitely being in the beginning of that range," then told 2 weeks ago "your car is definitely on the assembly line" only to then hear today it hasn't gotten that far yet.) Per Tesla I am NOT one of the special 28 cases, that this is how they are all going. No VIN, and in somewhat of a specialist limbo.
My concern has moved much further and deeper than "I wan't my car" foot stomping (insert picture of your 4 year old here.) As a shareholder, there is NO WAY this company is going to make their earnings in this next quarter.
Yeah, but I don't care about that as a long term investor; the delay in production won't kill 'em. What I do care about as a stockholder is whether Tesla is alienating customers, inviting major lawsuits which it will lose, the sort of stuff which destroys companies. Your concerns are echoed by my deep concerns.

I have, as the rest of you, been hearing about this storied ramp up that is suppose to be occurring. However, if they can't get to Sig #371 until at least November, there will be no chance they will hit their already revised downward 3000 cars by end of December. To take some sting out of the sig tax
See, that's the sort of thing which isn't good for a company's reputation and is causing me to reconsider stock ownership. I could list a bunch of other such things: things which feel like nickel-and-diming, things which feel shady, and things which are violations of the law, but you all know 'em all already, they've been mentioned before.

I am very curious what the Texas situation is. If you can share any further information it would be appreciated.

(which BTW I don't mind it but in no way will I be upgrading my X to sig if tesla survives long enough to make it) I can understand selling your stock now, shorting it for the soon to occur drop when they don't make earnings, then hopefully buying it on the way up as Tesla recovers. I hate to sound negative, and I love Tesla and what they are trying to do. However, as a doctor, I tend to deal with reality and facts, not blind faith and hopeful feel good optimism.
 
neroden, I think you are totally over-interpreting the situation. You might be right by coincidence, or not, but there simply isn't the structure/infrastructure yet in this growing production machine / startup company to provide the kind of process you are asking for. It is the same as trying to give reasons to the fluctuations of a volatile stock. Just cool down and let them develop a smooth production process and everything around it.
 
I knew they were trying to get away with something they couldn't get away with there. :p At least that was understandable, since Texas *prohibited* Tesla's business model. Tesla's other legal slip-ups are much less excusable.

So what exactly is Tesla doing about the "Texas problem"? I presume all cars are being sold, officially, from other states. Do you also have to pick 'em up in other states? That would be unsurprising.


Yeah, but I don't care about that as a long term investor; the delay in production won't kill 'em. What I do care about as a stockholder is whether Tesla is alienating customers, inviting major lawsuits which it will lose, the sort of stuff which destroys companies. Your concerns are echoed by my deep concerns.


See, that's the sort of thing which isn't good for a company's reputation and is causing me to reconsider stock ownership. I could list a bunch of other such things: things which feel like nickel-and-diming, things which feel shady, and things which are violations of the law, but you all know 'em all already, they've been mentioned before.

I am very curious what the Texas situation is. If you can share any further information it would be appreciated.

Please consider selling your stock and canceling your reservation (again) as I don't think you'll be happy with the company given the threats you've made against them. Tesla has nothing to do with the Texas law and is actively trying to get it overturned but the legislature only meets every 2 years and you can imagine the dealership lobby isn't behind such a change. You buy the car from California and they deliver the car to you in Texas and you then transfer the title yourself.
 
Please consider selling your stock and canceling your reservation (again) as I don't think you'll be happy with the company given the threats you've made against them. Tesla has nothing to do with the Texas law and is actively trying to get it overturned but the legislature only meets every 2 years and you can imagine the dealership lobby isn't behind such a change. You buy the car from California and they deliver the car to you in Texas and you then transfer the title yourself.


It seems somewhat outrageous that dealers could get behind a law that is supposedly in place for the protection of the customer and sound credible or sincere.

I don't think that there will have any trouble getting the laws updated or modified to fit modern society's needs.

I can't think of any other industry that has laws requiring there to be a middleman and to provide the same with the opportunity to take advantage of both the manufacturer and the customer.

I'm comfortable with the risks and trust the company is capable of achieving its mission. I'm not risk adverse as I am familiar with new product development, launch, production and global distribution's challenges. Thus far nothing has come as a surprise and things are turning out far better than I anticipated.

Maybe DSM is right and you are not the pioneering type. Nothing wrong with that. I am still enjoying the journey. I am sorry that you are not.
 
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Yeah, its amazing what kind of laws money and a lobbying effort can get passed! Here in Austin technically it is still illegal to have wire cutters in your pocket....
Anyways, Tesla is just having us talk with the California representatives, and not the local ones. Also I 'think' they will send the cars straight from CA and not have them stop at the Houston store first for prepping. Which is fine by me - quicker delivery!
 
As my MVPA has now been countersigned by Tesla and I've been given a tentative delivery window of February/March, I've done a rough calculation to determine the accuracy of Tesla's estimated delivery window. I'm P 8,781 and I estimate there are about 1,000 other reservation holder whose cars will be produced before full production of P reservations ramps up to full speed (remaining signatures, R's, etc). If Tesla ramped up production to 400 cars per week tomorrow and manufactures cars strictly in the order of reservation numbers, it would take 24 weeks before my car is completed. This would put delivery near the end of April. If the pace of production ramps up more slowly, forget April.

The only way I'd see February or March delivery would be for me to jump ahead in line owing to cancelations or other unknown variables. So I just don't see how a February or March delivery is even remotely possible. I'm ok with that but maybe someone else can enlighten me about how a February or March delivery would be possible. I'd be thrilled if that happened but I'm not holding my breath.
 
As my MVPA has now been countersigned by Tesla and I've been given a tentative delivery window of February/March, I've done a rough calculation to determine the accuracy of Tesla's estimated delivery window. I'm P 8,781 and I estimate there are about 1,000 other reservation holder whose cars will be produced before full production of P reservations ramps up to full speed (remaining signatures, R's, etc). If Tesla ramped up production to 400 cars per week tomorrow and manufactures cars strictly in the order of reservation numbers, it would take 24 weeks before my car is completed. This would put delivery near the end of April. If the pace of production ramps up more slowly, forget April.

The only way I'd see February or March delivery would be for me to jump ahead in line owing to cancelations or other unknown variables. So I just don't see how a February or March delivery is even remotely possible. I'm ok with that but maybe someone else can enlighten me about how a February or March delivery would be possible. I'd be thrilled if that happened but I'm not holding my breath.

I think your assumption of 1,000 cars to be produced before the Ps get to full speed is way high. They have finished virtually all of the U.S. Sigs. There might be 600 Canadian Sigs and Rs, the production of which has been underway for almost two weeks. TM is about to start contacting General Production customers to begin setting up their deliveries. They earlier projected that full ramp up of 400 cars per week would occur by the end of November. I don't know whether they are there yet, but they should be close.

That said, a February or March delivery for P8781 does sound optimistic.
 
There might be 600 Canadian Sigs and Rs, the production of which has been underway for almost two weeks. That said, a February or March delivery for P8781 does sound optimistic.

There will be less than 200 Canadian Sigs.

There are less than 400 R's as there really weren't that many Roadster's sold and over 250 Roadster owners got Sigs and Founders.

Sig production has not yet finished.

They will not reach 400 / week until January. Keep in mind since August it has been ~20 weeks and only about 1100 cars have truly been finished. Even less have been delivered. The 200 cars/week claim includes cars that are sitting around with missing parts. In my opinion, those should not be counted. Either it is finished or it isn't. To get to 8781. Tesla would need to make around 6000 P's. That will take until late March or maybe even late April.
 
As my MVPA has now been countersigned by Tesla and I've been given a tentative delivery window of February/March, I've done a rough calculation to determine the accuracy of Tesla's estimated delivery window. I'm P 8,781 and I estimate there are about 1,000 other reservation holder whose cars will be produced before full production of P reservations ramps up to full speed (remaining signatures, R's, etc). If Tesla ramped up production to 400 cars per week tomorrow and manufactures cars strictly in the order of reservation numbers, it would take 24 weeks before my car is completed. This would put delivery near the end of April. If the pace of production ramps up more slowly, forget April.

First, keep in mind that the move from 200 to 400 per week is actually pretty binary and quick. It's being done by onboarding a 2nd shift of factory personnel. They've been training for the past few weeks and presumably have some start date designated for them. Then it's simply a matter of picking up production, and given that there are no known parts delays or other outside factors, they should be able to just start at close to 200 per week from day one. That will nearly instantly double production, as silly as that may seem.

Anyways, take a look at my estimated production plan: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 27

I'm thinking they can make it to GP2000 by the end of the year. So, (8781-2000)/400 = ~17 weeks. However, you do have to factor in a large number of cancellations before you. There were around 1600 in Q3 of this year, mainly due to them contacting reservation holders that couldn't commit to the vehicle. That's nearly 4 weeks you're moved up! That moves you from late April to late March. Factor in additional cancellations as more people were contacted in Q4 ahead of you, I don't think March is totally out of the question.

Nonetheless, I would manage expectations and tell your friends and family April for the time being. Things can happen, so I wouldn't follow the best case scenario. If that were true, I would have had my car 2 months ago :)