Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing

[Omer]

First, keep in mind that the move from 200 to 400 per week is actually pretty binary and quick. It's being done by onboarding a 2nd shift of factory personnel. They've been training for the past few weeks and presumably have some start date designated for them. Then it's simply a matter of picking up production, and given that there are no known parts delays or other outside factors, they should be able to just start at close to 200 per week from day one. That will nearly instantly double production, as silly as that may seem.

Anyways, take a look at my estimated production plan: Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves) - Page 27

I'm thinking they can make it to GP2000 by the end of the year. So, (8781-2000)/400 = ~17 weeks. However, you do have to factor in a large number of cancellations before you. There were around 1600 in Q3 of this year, mainly due to them contacting reservation holders that couldn't commit to the vehicle. That's nearly 4 weeks you're moved up! That moves you from late April to late March. Factor in additional cancellations as more people were contacted in Q4 ahead of you, I don't think March is totally out of the question.

Nonetheless, I would manage expectations and tell your friends and family April for the time being. Things can happen, so I wouldn't follow the best case scenario. If that were true, I would have had my car 2 months ago

Has anyone tracked the total cancellations so far? I've heard a number as high as 4,000.

 

[DouglasR]

There are less than 400 R's as there really weren't that many Roadster's sold and over 250 Roadster owners got Sigs and Founders.

I was just going by the Reservation Tally: the highest R is 532, which does not include the 249 SSLs. I used the 400 number to account for cancellations, deferrals, and upgrades, but it is also one I've seen in a lot of posts. Do you have a better source?

As for the production rate, the company reported 200 per week a couple of weeks ago, and Elon told ModelS1079 on November 12 that it was "well over 250." I suspect it's a good 300 now, if not higher. I agree with you that the rate needs to be stated as "delivery to customers" to be meaningful, and that February or March delivery for P8781 is not realistic.

 

[artsci]

The one unknown here is the number of cancellations of people who have a lower p number than me. Given that all of the people ahead of me in line have gotten MVPAs Tesla knows that number and I assume they include that in their delivery estimates. Actually, I hope that number is very low even though it's in my self-interest for it to be very high. A high cancellation rate is bad for Tesla. It's far more important that Tesla succeed than than a month's or two or three difference in my delivery date.

 

[ckessel]

Has anyone tracked the total cancellations so far? I've heard a number as high as 4,000.

Heard from where? The earnings call a couple weeks ago said 1200 cancellations.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Heard from where? The earnings call a couple weeks ago said 1200 cancellations.

Yup, Deepak Ahuja pegged the cancellation rate at consistently 10-15%.

 

[Omer]

Heard from where? The earnings call a couple weeks ago said 1200 cancellations.

Yes but wasn't that just for Q3? What about people that cancelled prior?

 

[Brian H]

Heard from where? The earnings call a couple weeks ago said 1200 cancellations.

MichiganModelS' tally calculations show about a 4100 difference between the sum of all res#s and the official total. Of those, about 340 were Sigs. The rest must be varieties of P, though not necessarily all US. So figure 3,000. Virtually all of those would be low P#s, so guesstimate 2,500. Subtract that from 8800, and get 6300 actual cars yet to be produced (post Sigs and Rs). Add back 400 Rs, get 6700.

An engineer long ago said the design limit of 1 line one shift is around 20,000/annum, so a second shift is not necessary to hit 400, just a smoothly operating 1st shift. And Elon's target for Jan has been >20K rate by Y/E. Whether that will be met, of course, is another question.

In any case, there are about 18 weeks to the end of March; 6700/18 = 370/wk. Feasible.

 

[Brian H]

Yup, Deepak Ahuja pegged the cancellation rate at consistently 10-15%.

Note that's current. When analysing P#s, the total history of drops and switches has to be backed out. As mentioned, MichiganModelS finds a total 4000+ difference between total res#s and confirmed reservation totals, per the shareholder meeting figures, and official SEC submissions. Should be quite reliable.

 

[artsci]

In any case, there are about 18 weeks to the end of March; 6700/18 = 370/wk. Feasible.

I'd be very happy with the end of March.

 

[Robert.Boston]

MichiganModelS' tally calculations show about a 4100 difference between the sum of all res#s and the official total. Of those, about 340 were Sigs. The rest must be varieties of P, though not necessarily all US. So figure 3,000. Virtually all of those would be low P#s, so guesstimate 2,500. Subtract that from 8800, and get 6300 actual cars yet to be produced (post Sigs and Rs). Add back 400 Rs, get 6700.

@michiganmodels has his "cancellation" figure to reconcile the sum of the highest-known numbers with the number of live reservations. More than a few of these reservations were created by people shifting among the lists. We know, for example, that @strider started on the R list, shifted to the SSL list, then back to the GP list. @michiganmodels' correction factor will include 2 "cancellations" to make sure that the spots @strider used up aren't counted, but I personally wouldn't call either of those "cancellations" in the sense of "unhappy with Tesla." If you're trying to compute when your car might arrive, though, you do need to include them.

Bottom line: don't draw conclusions about the long-run financials of Tesla from the apparent cancellation rate shown in the TMC board tally.

 

[NigelM]

If you're trying to compute when your car might arrive....

If you want to avoid the delayed delivery anxiety that others suffered from don't try to compute your due date at all, and if you really can't resist then add at least a month to account for all the variables that we are taking guesses at or haven't thought of yet.

 

[aviators99]

I should have added a year!

 

[Anzir]

I'm sure the cancellations were fairly quickly resolved as well. My father first saw the S in early May (2012) at the Santana Row showroom, put the deposit on a Sig Perf a week later and was promised a late September delivery. His car should arrive in Dania Beach FL dealership this week and delivered to him next week, about 2 months late.

When he told me he put a deposit down, I thought they were going to give him a mid-late 2013 date. When they said Sept 2012 I was floored.

 

[ckessel]

I think you may be right. I was told this morning that my car is in burn-in and should be shipping within days. I was also forewarned though, that it's likely that R's and P's will get delivered before I got my car.

What was your non-Sig #? It was pretty low if I recall. I'm wondering if you ended up getting your Sig even a month early when all was said and done.

 

[sublimaze1]

I think you may be right. I was told this morning that my car is in burn-in and should be shipping within days. I was also forewarned though, that it's likely that R's and P's will get delivered before I got my car.

Now wait a second here. And don't take this as a "challenge" to your post, but rather a fact finding missive:

As I am quite a low P, I would be interested in knowing who told you that (this morning) as it is likely that my P would be included in that grouping/batching, or - more likely - following in the next week. And if yours is in burn-in, things are looking shiny for yours truly ...

 

[AnOutsider]

Now wait a second here. And don't take this as a "challenge" to your post, but rather a fact finding missive:

As I am quite a low P, I would be interested in knowing who told you that (this morning) as it is likely that my P would be included in that grouping/batching, or - more likely - following in the next week. And if yours is in burn-in, things are looking shiny for yours truly ...

Heh, sorry, I didn't ask them if I could post their email and/or name here which is why I paraphrased, but it was a high-ranking DS that said this. Now perhaps they were just trying to brace me for it possibly happening (since I was told a couple weeks back that it absolutely wouldn't), but it was indeed said. Keep your phone handy

 

[adurstewitz]

This maybe irrelevant, or contradicted the minute I post this, but I contacted the Ownership Experience guys about changing my paint color today. After I was transferred to change department the rep there called the factory to see where my car was in the process. A few hours later he responded with a statement that my car was in a position where the paint color could not be changed and that I would be contacted with a more precise deliver date.

I've asked for further clarification although I doubt I'll get any.


P3853 - 85kW, Grey, 19'', Air Ride, Tech, Child Seats

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[JakeP]

This maybe irrelevant, or contradicted the minute I post this, but I contacted the Ownership Experience guys about changing my paint color today. After I was transferred to change department the rep there called the factory to see where my car was in the process. A few hours later he responded with a statement that my car was in a position where the paint color could not be changed and that I would be contacted with a more precise deliver date.

P3853 - 85kW, Grey, 19'', Air Ride, Tech, Child Seats

WHOA....P3853 is on the Production floor, and possibly through paint??? That is major speculation, I know...but even if it is just about to be released to production, that is still huge news!!!

 

[timdorr]

WHOA....P3853 is on the Production floor, and possibly through paint??? That is major speculation, I know...but even if it is just about to be released to production, that is still huge news!!!

No, that's not true. They're just not able to change the selection for some reason. Presumably because MVPA's are so far ahead that he would be placed very far back in line if he made changes at this point. If it was true, then they made ~3500 cars last week

 

[Discoducky]

Hold on, we've been told its too late to change color for sometime. If 3853 is in paint right now I would be very happy as my car would be gathering dust in the factory as would possibly several thousand others.