Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Kuzco]

I placed a reservation/order for a Plaid+ (before it was actually called a +) on the day the website allowed me to order. In fact, within hours because when I first tried it wasn't there. I came back and refreshed a couple hours later and it was. My Tesla "rep" called me shortly after I placed the order to confirm. He told me (probably because he was being told) that it would be mid-late October 2021. I was skeptical, but hopeful, as I expected the new 4680 cells would be the cause of delay, which I haven't heard much about since LG stated they had "production samples" over a month ago.

Anyway, since that time, I've seen rumors of a Plaid (non +) using current battery technology. In fact, my rep called a few months ago and said I could have a new Plaid with current batteries by the end of that month. I told him I'd wait. This is the same scenario when I bought my P90D. The P100D was close to production, but was only being marketed as longer range, but same voltage i.e. same power/acceleration. I wasn't willing to pay the extra $10K for an extra 10kWh of battery. Shortly after they announced the P100D would get a voltage bump.

Elon had some comments on 4680 during last week's earnings call & it doesn't sound promising.

"We're not quite at the point where we think (4680) cells are reliable enough to be shipped in cars." [About 1 hour, 2 minutes, 20 seconds into the call, link to the call was shared earlier in this thread Wiki - Model S Delivery Update]

That'll impact both Plaid+ and tri-motor CyberTruck.

 

[thebishop]

Better screenshot of A5/A8 from May 3

View attachment 659459

X10-X13 are all produced refresh model S/X so far, surely!

 

[thebishop]

Elon had some comments on 4680 during last week's earnings call & it doesn't sound promising.

"We're not quite at the point where we think (4680) cells are reliable enough to be shipped in cars." [About 1 hour, 2 minutes, 20 seconds into the call]

That'll impact both Plaid+ and tri-motor CyberTruck.

That would then be Elon-speak (why, oh why, am I thinking of NewSpeak and G. Orwell) for "the 4680 cells are currently exploding and burning worse than someone who tried to do home cooked napalm, but we hope some aliens soon will help us sort it out, that's why I'm running SpaceX on the side!".

As Tesla in general and Elon in particular can't communicate, that would be my best guess from such a statement.

Yes, I'm p*ssed off.

 

[Nappypapi]

Tells me the profound issue was shocking and unexpected.

Better screenshot of A5/A8 from May 3

View attachment 659459

Yall better than me..i dont know how you can tell is an s at that angle

 

[Dameon]

Elon had some comments on 4680 during last week's earnings call & it doesn't sound promising.

"We're not quite at the point where we think (4680) cells are reliable enough to be shipped in cars." [About 1 hour, 2 minutes, 20 seconds into the call, link to the call was shared earlier in this thread Wiki - Model S Delivery Update]

That'll impact both Plaid+ and tri-motor CyberTruck.

Blah then.

If I don't hear something more promising by end of year, I may consider the 2170/18650 Plaid S. :roll:

 

[Tigers]

Yall better than me..i dont know how you can tell is an s at that angle

The headlights are really the only way. They are clearly different in those two rows, but I agree. Very difficult from that far away/angle. TBF - I didn't even notice it was a whole row of them at first until someone else took the screenshot.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

They can produce 2000 a week, so a few scraps aren't going to get my hopes up that they are anything but testers. If they were in production, you would see hundreds on the lot.

2000/wk is with two shifts at full production per Elon. They will not be there until Q3.

 

[Kuzco]

That would then be Elon-speak (why, oh why, am I thinking of NewSpeak and G. Orwell) for "the 4680 cells are currently exploding and burning worse than someone who tried to do home cooked napalm, but we hope some aliens soon will help us sort it out, that's why I'm running SpaceX on the side!".

As Tesla in general and Elon in particular can't communicate, that would be my best guess from such a statement.

Yes, I'm p*ssed off.

To be fair, he did immediately follow that up with some "optimism" for next year. But I left that part out because IMHO Elon's optimism is sus.

Here's the full quote from Elon:

We are not quite yet at the point where we think the cells are reliable enough to be shipped in cars, but we are getting close to that point. And then we have already ordered most of the equipment for battery production in Berlin and then much of it for Austin as well. So we really don’t flick the nitty-gritty elements. But overall, I think, we still feel quite optimistic about achieving volume production of the 4680 next year.

 

[josahua]

Alright. I get all of the negatives but its time to start anticipating deliveries and first customer reports of quality and performance. Looks to me that we are a couple weeks away from first deliveries. Maybe not at 2000/wk rate but some. I am Plaid+ Blue/white mid 2022 so this isn't helping me but I would like to see some of you get your cars.

 

[Desert Dave]

I try to check out headlights. M3s look quite different with an upward slant

Yall better than me..i dont know how you can tell is an s at that angle

 

[eipi10]

Better screenshot of A5/A8 from May 3

View attachment 659459

Has yoke. You can tell by comparing A9 to A8. You can see the clunky steering wheels in A9 but not in A8.

 

[Danlbrau]

Alright. I get all of the negatives but its time to start anticipating deliveries and first customer reports of quality and performance. Looks to me that we are a couple weeks away from first deliveries. Maybe not at 2000/wk rate but some. I am Plaid+ Blue/white mid 2022 so this isn't helping me but I would like to see some of you get your cars.

What makes you think a couple weeks away from deliveries? Until we see car carriers departing the factory en masse we are still in the same holding pattern since February...

 

[elguapo]

Has yoke. You can tell by comparing A9 to A8. You can see the clunky steering wheels in A9 but not in A8.

If those S models are waiting for new/revised battery tech (not 4680, but just heat management or whatever), I will pass on an early vin. I’d prefer to not have a retrofitted “new” car.

Estimated delivery “-“. Of note, I ordered day of refresh announcement. Not a converted order.

 

[jsight]

That would then be Elon-speak (why, oh why, am I thinking of NewSpeak and G. Orwell) for "the 4680 cells are currently exploding and burning worse than someone who tried to do home cooked napalm, but we hope some aliens soon will help us sort it out, that's why I'm running SpaceX on the side!".

As Tesla in general and Elon in particular can't communicate, that would be my best guess from such a statement.

Yes, I'm p*ssed off.

What's funny is that this was pretty much my reaction to battery day. Somehow everyone on YT was all "wow 50% improvement" without seeing that none of it was actually proven to work yet. Knowing the problems remaining isn't the same as knowing the solutions, sadly.

 

[Kuzco]

What makes you think a couple weeks away from deliveries? Until we see car carriers departing the factory en masse we are still in the same holding pattern since February...

Agreed. What are we seeing now that’s any different from the last couple months?

 

[legend_of_jim]

Better screenshot of A5/A8 from May 3

View attachment 659459

So.. we're finally seeing S's in the lot since the mules were shipped out.. after all the sightings, after all the speculation, after Elon said deliveries would begin this month.... is this saying.. things are finally moving?! Hold on tight!

Gabe gave me the best updates throughout this whole damn experience lol.

- Feb 5th MS MSM LR Arachnids - July

 

[Kuzco]

If those S models are waiting for new/revised battery tech (not 4680, but just heat management or whatever), I will pass on an early vin. I’d prefer to not have a retrofitted “new” car.

Estimated delivery “-“. Of note, I ordered day of refresh announcement. Not a converted order.

This is my stance as well. Eagerly awaiting hands-on reviews from amateur YT-ers, but probably still won’t accept delivery of my order until until Q4 ‘21 or Q1 ‘22.

 

[doubleshot]

Yall better than me..i dont know how you can tell is an s at that angle

Haha.look at front bumper. You can see the chrome Tesla logo on the front. M3 doesn't have any logo that low and front bumper looks a bit different.

 

[doubleshot]

Agreed. What are we seeing now that’s any different from the last couple months?

Last couple of months never had a full line of them much less two waiting to go on trucks that have the window sticker. These actually have a window sticker on the dash. Hopefully finally a group that's going out for actual deliveries.

 

[Kuzco]

Last couple of months never had a full line of them much less two waiting to go on trucks that have the window sticker. These actually have a window sticker on the dash. Hopefully finally a group that's going out for actual deliveries.

Fair enough. I originally thought this was the same lot/setup as the Feb/March photos.

Has yoke. You can tell by comparing A9 to A8. You can see the clunky steering wheels in A9 but not in A8.

I'm bad at sleuthing these photos - but do we really think there's a mix of steering wheels here? If so, that also makes me suspicious of customer deliveries. AFAIK, we still haven't seen any reports of any way for customers to choose between round/yoke, eh?