Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[omarsultan]

I’ll expand on this reasoning. In his tweets he mentions depending on how well the limited release of 9.0 does is dependent on when it gets released as a beta. We know Tesla has built model s refreshed mules around 1-2 months ago.

what if the hold up is software, Tesla shipped out a record number of m3’s and my’s so the chip shortage isn’t affecting them, the model s/x line has produced dozens of mules and could be getting upgrades now that they’re waiting on v11 to be finalized. now what if Tesla is using the already built mules to test out the updated version of fsd 9.0/v11, aren’t they also removing radar or something along those lines so they have to wait for the govt to approve that. Version 11 will release on the model s/x I don’t see Tesla releasing that version on the 3 first so until that whole software package is ready we might not see the vehicles.

This is just another point of view to maybe meet an eye on due to the little information we actually do have.

I think that makes sense only if FSD 9.0/V11 also includes the necessary support for HW4 (assuming the new cars have HW4), otherwise, they could have just shipped the cars with the current SW. The issue I see with that is if it was a hold up on SW, they could have built cars, shipped them to their staging locations, then simply forced a FW upgrade and started immediate delivery.

 

[james912]

I think that makes sense only if FSD 9.0/V11 also includes the necessary support for HW4 (assuming the new cars have HW4), otherwise, they could have just shipped the cars with the current SW. The issue I see with that is if it was a hold up on SW, they could have built cars, shipped them to their staging locations, then simply forced a FW upgrade and started immediate delivery.

Since we don’t know what hardware the new cars have we could only assume it’s hw3. Maybe we get lucky and it does ship hw4 but until v11 is ready to install I don’t see the how the cars ship. Think about how many mules we have seen over the last couple months. Those are all running the new software gathering data for 9.0. Now the other big issue is getting approval for removing the radar or whatever sensors/cameras Elon mentioned he wanted to remove. That is also another thing that the software team has to implement into the new model s. The cars could be built and by looking at flyovers of the Fremont factory we could see throughout the months ms’s have been built not on just one occasion. Tesla wouldn’t have the model s be built and stored away waiting possibly months while staging before the software is ready.

 

[BruceR61]

Let me know when the drama stops and some real news arrives. All of this speculation is just stupid!

 

[eipi10]

Folks, the simplest explanation for the delay would be that the original supposed “estimates” of February/March were lies and Tesla never had any intention of delivering then. That is, Tesla had not yet designed and tested the refreshed cars, much less created the production line, in February/March.

 

[james912]

Let me know when the drama stops and some real news arrives. All of this speculation is just stupid!

Good thing this is a community forum and not something official from Tesla. I wonder what else people would do in such a place as they wait for any news.

not sure if this video has been shared.

 

[ICUdoc30]

Let me know when the drama stops and some real news arrives. All of this speculation is just stupid!

April 26th Elon gotta give a legit update on earnings. He can’t give a cryptic tweet to explain delay with Wall Street and all the shorts bringing pressure on the stock. Disclosure: Long TSLA

 

[josahua]

MXLR FSD White with cream interior, 6 seater, standard wheels(for range)
Order placed on Jan 28 2020 1144....
1. Estimated delivery: April
2. Estimated delivery:
3. Estimated delivery: April

Uploaded insurance myself - the UI does not "check marks" it as it does for others. Have sent photo of my insurance to my SA and she said she attached it couple days ago, still insurance widget does not shows as checked-marked. Just shows that I've uploaded and a "+" sign to expand details.


Ok, I'm not happy with communication at all from tesla, but I'll tell you what guys:
1. I've ordered a door(just regular fire-rated door between my garage and house) back in Nov 2020 and was promised it to be delivered on mid Dec 2020.
After several(10+) false promises I finall got my door on March 2021 - WRONG SIZE!!! So I had to return it. I ordered another one mid March 2021 with original delivery of mid April 2021. Now delivery has moved to May 2021 again. This is a door, ok!?, like, there is not electronics in it or what so ever! Good news though is that on door market it is better competition that in EVs
2. I've ordered a Roland Digital piano in mid of Feb 2021 with original delivery date of mid March 2021. I haven't received it as of now. I get it that piano is more comprehensive than door though.
3. I've ordered MXLR on Jan 2821 - well, you know the rest of this story

Both door and roland use covid as very convenient excuse for parts shortage and etc. I don't think I'm 100% sold to this excuse though.

In any case, now we are talking about a EV car, not just simple one that has an electric motor + pedals + batteries all wired up together, it is probably the most high tech piece of future out there. No excuse for worst communication possible thought. Just wanted to share that our of 3 products that I'm somewhat passioned none of them has been delivered to me and delay is counted in months for all of products.

These shortages in supply are happening across a broad spectrum of the durable goods and electronics markets. In my business I deal with this daily. It is having a fairly significant impact on some of the other auto manufacturers. Inventories are depleted and even rental companies are struggling since they sold off their older fleet vehicles as they typically do each year. That does not relieve Tesla of their poor ability to forecast since this issue has been going on for over 8 months.

 

[josahua]

Looks like the inspectors' notes say: "Tesla not able to shut down panel for inspection. Also tool electrical from PDP not on plans provide a permit for inspection or add to scope. Provide sp. inspection affidavit for anchors and welds. Also mechanical air was not tested and installed without inspection. All tools are not authorized for use by the city."

These are pretty bad results from an inspection and will require multiple corrective actions. Probably a two week impact and some smoothing over with the building official.

 

[josahua]

It’s things like this that will make Elon move the rest of Tesla out of CA. And I don’t blame him.

This is basic Building code stuff. Same in any state.

 

[josahua]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1382454375260561408

Panel energization is not a minor issue nor is installation to an unapproved design. I live in this world. This is sloppy and will cost them a couple weeks on this tool. Hate it for them but this is on Tesla.

 

[josahua]

On the good news front, my M3 order moved up 3 weeks. I’ll drive this until my Plaid+ shows up.

 

[Drew-MS]

This is just a thought and it's unlikely but I'll ask anyway.. Is it possible that Tesla has been recently testing the tri-motor plaid and it's not hitting their performance numbers? The 9.23 1/4 mile was simply to one up Lucid. Most important, was the Plaid actually hitting 9.23 in actual testing on a track ? Or did the 9.23 come from algorithms and math and then Elon said "let's go with it, that won't be a problem." ..... and a little while later when they started testing the mules, the numbers fell short. This type of scenario would explain the total silence. If that happened, Tesla would certainly have to figure it out which would take time 'delays.' Based on real world 60-130 numbers, a car that can hit 155 in the 1/4, will have a 60-130 time of less than 5 seconds. The plaid that did the 130.3 around Laguna Seca had a 60-130 time of 6 seconds so that plaid on that day might have been capable of 145 in the 1/4, not 155. Of course the tech and software etc. have improved since then and that's why my thinking is total guesswork and more speculation. IMHO this is probably not the issue and not causing the delays. But it is a possibility.

 

[Ribeyesteak]

This is just a thought and it's unlikely but I'll ask anyway.. Is it possible that Tesla has been recently testing the tri-motor plaid and it's not hitting their performance numbers? The 9.23 1/4 mile was simply to one up Lucid. Most important, was the Plaid actually hitting 9.23 in actual testing on a track ? Or did the 9.23 come from algorithms and math and then Elon said "let's go with it, that won't be a problem." ..... and a little while later when they started testing the mules, the numbers fell short. Is it possible? This type of scenario would explain the total silence. If that happened, Tesla would certainly have to figure it out which would take time 'delays.' Based on real world 60-130 numbers, a car that can hit 155 in the 1/4, will have a 60-130 time of less than 5 seconds. The plaid that did the 130.3 around Laguna Seca had a 60-130 closer to 6 seconds so that plaid on that day might have been capable of 145 in the 1/4, not 155. Of course the tech and software etc. have improved since then and that's why my thinking is total guesswork and more speculation. IMHO this is probably not the issue and not causing the delays. But it is a possibility.

I also timed the 60-130 and the time was over 6 seconds by my count and that is honestly slow for the alleged ET/trap on their website. Stock 720s are low 5s and are way underpowered compared to the "tri motor 1020HP."

 

[Drew-MS]

I also timed the 60-130 and the time was over 6 seconds by my count and that is honestly slow for the alleged ET/trap on their website. Stock 720s are low 5s and are way underpowered compared to the "tri motor 1020HP."

Lol good to know I wasn't the only one. That video was prior to Tesla giving us performance numbers so I was trying to estimate how fast the car was. My estimate was a trap speed of 145 (best case.)

 

[Ribeyesteak]

Lol good to know I wasn't the only one. That video was prior to Tesla giving us performance numbers so I was trying to estimate how fast the car was. My estimate was a trap speed of 145 (best case.)

TBH a 6 sec 60-130 is not worth the price tag of ~130k OTD. I hope it is max high 4s.

 

[SO16]

This is basic Building code stuff. Same in any state.

Yes yes, I know.

Already responded to others about this. I’m not talking about what was found or the act of doing so. It just sounded like they were dragging their feet based on a couple (unverified) reports.

 

[jaguar36]

I really wish people (myself included) would read the entire thread before responding.

I know whats wrong with people, its only 25,396 posts to read through, come on!

 

[SO16]

I know whats wrong with people, its only 25,396 posts to read through, come on!

I know....right?!?!

haha. You replied before I fixed my post.

 

[cascadilla]

It’s strange that Musk isn’t tweeting about the S/X anymore. Musk loves being the hypeman for his delayed projects. v9 anyone? Does he ... want us to forget about the S?

I agree with the performance discussion above, re: plaid didn’t make the target numbers. Musk claims they always do better than the prototype in the final product. Maybe this time, they didn’t?

 

[Tigers]

It’s strange that Musk isn’t tweeting about the S/X anymore. Musk loves being the hypeman for his delayed projects. v9 anyone? Does he ... want us to forget about the S?

He claims they always do better than the prototype. Maybe this time, they didn’t?

I don't know. I think the S/X sales are high enough that he doesn't care. He's still trying to get people to blow $10k on software that will never fully work correctly on probably they next two iterations of hardware. I don't know why anyone on earth would buy fsd but it seems like that's where his full attention is and it's going to be a waste of time for years to come.