I think it’s very unlikely that the Plaid will have the 4680s this year. It is possible, especially with the delays they’ve had, but very unlikely.
My guess is:
- The 4680s are delayed and will be in short supply through next year.
- The new S (both Plaid and LR) are achieving better range than the earlier estimates currently on the website
- They think the best use of their limited 4680 supply over the next 12-18 months (and maybe beyond) is for a different vehicle (CT? Extended range Y? Semi? Who knows)
- They figure they can always bring it back, or just make an update to the Plaid that has the new batteries and better range (and potentially higher price, but maybe not). I always assumed Plaid+ would eventually become the Plaid and come down in price after they ramped up 4680 production.
It would certainly be interesting to be wrong, but this seems like the most likely explanation.