Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[cwanja]

There is some feature gating occurring. 44.5 and no ARNR here.

Maybe it’s only setup for the 21” wheels at the moment.

19s here. So not a factor.

But it’s not…. is there more than one 44.5 update?

But, it is. Just because you do not have it, does not mean it is not. As @theatrus mentioned - it seems to be behind a feature flag that Tesla controls when to raise the flag and present you the feature.

 

[EndlessPlaid]

This is exactly the point I was making earlier. The experiences on this forum are statistical noise. If we had the aggregated data of all service experiences from all Tesla customers, as well as BMW, MB, etc, then we could determine if Tesla is successful, if we’re defining success as a good service or delivery experience. We as humans tend to validate our biases by seeking out information that affirms those biases. We also anchor ourselves to certain statements, also easy to do here on a forum. If someone says a negative experience happened at a Tesla SC, we will anchor to that statement despite prevailing alternative facts. And vice versa.

What we can tell, since Tesla is publicly traded, is that they are profitable and growing incredibly fast. And the only true quantifiable measure of a sustainable company is yearly revenue growth. Not profitability, but top line revenue growth. Tesla has that and has for many years.

We also know that the legacy manufacturers are modeling after Tesla, not the other way. They’re moving as quickly as they can to get there but have a huge obstacle in their own dealer bases, current factories that are liabilities, an oversized workforce, a general lack of cohesive technology, and more. Regardless, Tesla has become the goal.

To me, I cannot view the company as anything but successful. It has many problems, no doubt. One of the biggest being the over-reliance on Musk. It’s a dangerous position, the stock would get decimated if something happened to him. Could it recover? Sure, if the leadership is there to pick up the pieces.

And then there’s the quality, fit and finish, communication, and all the other issues that surface here. But I’d rather be tasked with solving those issues than being tasked to develop an entire EV production model lineup while simultaneously trying adapt to a new way of selling everything, including cars.

I mean this is EXACTLY what I'm thinking. Nowadays Ford and VW's CEOs are admitting that Tesla is in the lead big time. And the ones that don't....................well they may not be around in ten year's time to "lead the way". People don't understand the scale of what must be done for the ICE making companies to transition. I would literally run into the character limit on here explaining it. As a brief example, think about the financial carnage that's about to happen to these companies barely aiming for a couple million EVs by 2030. In 2030, there will be next to no ICEs selling. Toyota just announced an increase in EV production to 3.5 million/year in 2030. 2030?! Bad bad news. No one will want them, and gas prices will be skyrocketing, due to the loss of economies of scale as ICE production declines. And that brings me onto another issue, the double whammy of billions of dollars needing to be spent on new technologies in EVs, and the simultaneous loss of economies of scale as ICE sales dwindle. Literally being hit from both sides.
Not many people get this (including some....err....high-level executives at *certain* car makers), and it will be really bad. Additionally, no one, and I repeat no one has the supply chain locked down like Tesla will. What happens when the Lithium production shortages in ~2024-2026 occur? Do you think the suppliers are going to want to give any lithium to other car makers when their long term customer needs lithium for 4+ million cars? Nope. And if they won't, Tesla will go into mining lithium. That's something that no car maker I think gets. Tesla will literally do whatever it takes to transition the world to sustainable energy. They will master any skill they need. They are ruthless in this pursuit, as they urgently want the world to be in a better place.
Tesla is the new benchmark here, and everyone is trying to follow, whether they admit it or not. And honestly, I put the EV startups at a higher success chance than some legacy auto makers.

 

[uthatcher]

I mean this is EXACTLY what I'm thinking. Nowadays Ford and VW's CEOs are admitting that Tesla is in the lead big time. And the ones that don't....................well they may not be around in ten year's time to "lead the way". People don't understand the scale of what must be done for the ICE making companies to transition. I would literally run into the character limit on here explaining it. As a brief example, think about the financial carnage that's about to happen to these companies barely aiming for a couple million EVs by 2030. In 2030, there will be next to no ICEs selling. Toyota just announced an increase in EV production to 3.5 million/year in 2030. 2030?! Bad bad news. No one will want them, and gas prices will be skyrocketing, due to the loss of economies of scale as ICE production declines. And that brings me onto another issue, the double whammy of billions of dollars needing to be spent on new technologies in EVs, and the simultaneous loss of economies of scale as ICE sales dwindle. Literally being hit from both sides.
Not many people get this (including some....err....high-level executives at *certain* car makers), and it will be really bad. Additionally, no one, and I repeat no one has the supply chain locked down like Tesla will. What happens when the Lithium production shortages in ~2024-2026 occur? Do you think the suppliers are going to want to give any lithium to other car makers when their long term customer needs lithium for 4+ million cars? Nope. And if they won't, Tesla will go into mining lithium. That's something that no car maker I think gets. Tesla will literally do whatever it takes to transition the world to sustainable energy. They will master any skill they need. They are ruthless in this pursuit, as they urgently want the world to be in a better place.
Tesla is the new benchmark here, and everyone is trying to follow, whether they admit it or not. And honestly, I put the EV startups at a higher success chance than some legacy auto makers.

Excellent point on the loss of economies of scale for ICE! I hadn’t even given that aspect a thought, but I agree with you, that’s huge.

And everything else you mention I think is accurate too. Tesla plays the game differently, I’m not convinced the legacy manufacturers cans adapt. I’m guessing not.

Anecdotally, and as I mentioned in my other post, confirming my own bias, I was at a small Holiday function this evening and as the evening wore down the conversation had shifted to cars. There was only 6 people left at that time. 4 of them had or have order Teslas. No Fords, no GM’s, no MB’s ordered.

Also anecdotally, I have a friend who has run more than one company that we’ve all heard of here. He’s mentioned to me that one of the biggest surprises he experienced in his career was how quickly something can decline. The sales of a particular model lineup for instance. Something that was a top seller literally became defunct within 3 years. In the specifc case he mentioned due to cameras going digital.

Lookout legacy car makers. Look out.

 

[jebinc]

Well, I guess it’s that time of night once again…

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Excellent point on the loss of economies of scale for ICE! I hadn’t even given that aspect a thought, but I agree with you, that’s huge.

And everything else you mention I think is accurate too. Tesla plays the game differently, I’m not convinced the legacy manufacturers cans adapt. I’m guessing not.

Anecdotally, and as I mentioned in my other post, confirming my own bias, I was at a small Holiday function this evening and as the evening wore down the conversation had shifted to cars. There was only 6 people left at that time. 4 of them had or have order Teslas. No Fords, no GM’s, no MB’s ordered.

Also anecdotally, I have a friend who has run more than one company that we’ve all heard of here. He’s mentioned to me that one of the biggest surprises he experienced in his career was how quickly something can decline. The sales of a particular model lineup for instance. Something that was a top seller literally became defunct within 3 years. In the specifc case he mentioned due to cameras going digital.

Lookout legacy car makers. Look out.

Yeah I heard about that from someone, and then did some more thinking. It's then you realize how truly hard it will be.

The rate of change is exactly this. You turn around and you don't know what hit you. Pretty scary stuff lol.

 

[uthatcher]

Yeah I heard about that from someone, and then did some more thinking. It's then you realize how truly hard it will be.

The rate of change is exactly this. You turn around and you don't know what hit you. Pretty scary stuff lol.

Damn fine gushing tonight, wouldn’t you say @jebinc?

 

[jebinc]

Damn fine gushing tonight, wouldn’t you say @jebinc?

I would; squirt, squirt….

 

[jebinc]

On a serious note, are you folks providing input to @danny re the TMC user interface refresh? They set up a thread a while back for us to do so.

UI and Feeds Update

We have just updated the site with a new UI and features. Please note that we are still making some adjustments and configuring things. Please let us know if you see any issues or bugs. [If you would like to continue to use the legacy "What's New" page, I have added the ability to add a "What's...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Turboz3]

Heres a few pics with the tail lights blacked out. Sorry not great pics, night time and in high rise garage.

 

[josahua]

Heres a few pics with the tail lights blacked out. Sorry not great pics, night time and in high rise garage.

thank you. Looks great!

 

[josahua]

Heres a few pics with the tail lights blacked out. Sorry not great pics, night time and in high rise garage.

Here is mine with 50% tint.

I dig it. Could have gone to 35%. Just trying to take some of the focus off them.

 

[Robotpedlr]

Here is mine with 50% tint.
View attachment 744866
I dig it. Could have gone to 35%. Just trying to take some of the focus off them.

Looks great…any pics with the lights on?

 

[epicshooter]

Hello everyone. I know that there are obvious delays with the Model S, but I wanted to see if my case was extreme. I placed my order on July 11, and at that time, Tesla gave a delivery window of September-October. That obviously came and went with delivery dates being pushed out to November and then December. My most recent window was December 21-31, which was a much smaller time frame than the 1 month windows I have been getting in the past. So I thought that was more concrete. Well last night, my profile updated to a delivery window of January 6-February 3. That pushes me to 6 months post order for a possible delivery.

Are others in the same boat for delivery time frames? I figured waiting 3-4 months would be long enough. But 6 months plus is getting out of hand. Please let me know if others are experiencing the same length of delays.

Yes- I placed in middle of July and my current EDD is jan 14-Feb 15 and it has pushed back several times from the original Oct.

 

[d1ez3]

Random question, but has anyone used the child seat hooks in the back and then tried to close the cover again? Mine won't go back flush so the whole thing is lifted up a few inches no matter how hard I push

 

[Maybeplaid]

Hello everyone. I know that there are obvious delays with the Model S, but I wanted to see if my case was extreme. I placed my order on July 11, and at that time, Tesla gave a delivery window of September-October. That obviously came and went with delivery dates being pushed out to November and then December. My most recent window was December 21-31, which was a much smaller time frame than the 1 month windows I have been getting in the past. So I thought that was more concrete. Well last night, my profile updated to a delivery window of January 6-February 3. That pushes me to 6 months post order for a possible delivery.

Are others in the same boat for delivery time frames? I figured waiting 3-4 months would be long enough. But 6 months plus is getting out of hand. Please let me know if others are experiencing the same length of delays.

I had to wait over 8 months; others waited a year.

 

[impastu]

Excellent point on the loss of economies of scale for ICE! I hadn’t even given that aspect a thought, but I agree with you, that’s huge.

And everything else you mention I think is accurate too. Tesla plays the game differently, I’m not convinced the legacy manufacturers cans adapt. I’m guessing not.

Anecdotally, and as I mentioned in my other post, confirming my own bias, I was at a small Holiday function this evening and as the evening wore down the conversation had shifted to cars. There was only 6 people left at that time. 4 of them had or have order Teslas. No Fords, no GM’s, no MB’s ordered.

Also anecdotally, I have a friend who has run more than one company that we’ve all heard of here. He’s mentioned to me that one of the biggest surprises he experienced in his career was how quickly something can decline. The sales of a particular model lineup for instance. Something that was a top seller literally became defunct within 3 years. In the specifc case he mentioned due to cameras going digital.

Lookout legacy car makers. Look out.

Over backyard bonfire bourbons with some of the dads from town the other night, one guy asks another if he got his new car delivered yet...it had been months. He said, "ya, I finally got the douche-mobile". I immediately assumed he took delivery of a Plaid. It was however a Taycan Grand Turismo (the station wagon rear end). Everyone walks around the front of the house to see the car, and point at my wife's X and ask if that's it (WTF?). Then behind her car on the street side is the Taycan. Beautiful shape (YMMV) although I have no affection for the front end of the Taycans that remind me of an 80s Pontiac. Everyone oohed and awed. Someone asked me about how my wife likes the X. I answer that she thinks its cool and does stupid tricks. They're like "whaaat?". So I ask if the Porsche can do this and play the Christmas Easter egg

Everyone is like WTAF....that was very funny...took the Porsche guy's air out of his sails, so I steered the discussion back to his new baby so as not to join the douche club.

 

[MFrunkerOG]

19s here. So not a factor.

But, it is. Just because you do not have it, does not mean it is not. As @theatrus mentioned - it seems to be behind a feature flag that Tesla controls when to raise the flag and present you the feature.

Let me just say that some of us have it and some of us don’t! Calibrate your Karma appropriately

 

[EndlessPlaid]

New taillights!!!! God they look soooo good!!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471387675588497408

 

[Ormond]

Over backyard bonfire bourbons with some of the dads from town the other night, one guy asks another if he got his new car delivered yet...it had been months. He said, "ya, I finally got the douche-mobile". I immediately assumed he took delivery of a Plaid. It was however a Taycan Grand Turismo (

I answer that she thinks its cool and does stupid tricks. They're like "whaaat?". So I ask if the Porsche can do this and play the Christmas Easter egg

Everyone is like WTAF....that was very funny...took the Porsche guy's air out of his sails, so I steered the discussion back to his new baby so as not to join the douche club.

I had a 2016 Model X which I quite liked. One of the highlights of my ownership was seeing the delight on my elderly neighbors faces when I played the Christmas Easter egg. Great memory!

Sadly, the MY just farts and plays La Cucaracha.

 

[aerodyne]

I had a 2016 Model X which I quite liked. One of the highlights of my ownership was seeing the delight on my elderly neighbors faces when I played the Christmas Easter egg. Great memory!

Sadly, the MY just farts and plays La Cucaracha.

No Santa Mode?