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Wiki Model S Delivery Update

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I'm betting it will. At most I'd say 60-70% of sales actually go through. Realistically probably more like 40-45%. So yeah it should get cut back, but it will still be several years booked. What I'm wishing for is to hear what annual capacity they will install for the short term in CT. 400,000 to 500,000 is my guess, and then 1 million+ longer term.
It will be pretty amazing if they are able to make and sell a million of them per year.
 
It will be pretty amazing if they are able to make and sell a million of them per year.
I'm sure they will long term. And that's actually conservative. If they eventually do a CT line at a future East Coast factory, then it will be way more. I hope we hear more soon.
And something new just happened! References to a structural pack have appeared in the MY owners manual. This is kind of a big deal:

 
I'm sure they will long term. And that's actually conservative. If they eventually do a CT line at a future East Coast factory, then it will be way more. I hope we hear more soon.
And something new just happened! References to a structural pack have appeared in the MY owners manual. This is kind of a big deal:

That is a big deal. That’s very interesting, I’m curious what we learn next.
 
Found a 2022 Plaid from existing inventory in SF with the same options as the car I ordered. Manufactured end of November with less than 50 miles supposedly. So I snagged it and it is supposed to come next week some time. I'm keeping my other order in case there's something wrong with this one. As I rarely keep my cars longer than a few months, the new lights and body style aren't a huge deal to me. Now I have to figure out the financing portion--I usually just rely on dealerships to do all that but guess not with Tesla.
 
Found a 2022 Plaid from existing inventory in SF with the same options as the car I ordered. Manufactured end of November with less than 50 miles supposedly. So I snagged it and it is supposed to come next week some time. I'm keeping my other order in case there's something wrong with this one. As I rarely keep my cars longer than a few months, the new lights and body style aren't a huge deal to me. Now I have to figure out the financing portion--I usually just rely on dealerships to do all that but guess not with Tesla.
A few months? Say more, please. Just curious.
 
Found a 2022 Plaid from existing inventory in SF with the same options as the car I ordered. Manufactured end of November with less than 50 miles supposedly. So I snagged it and it is supposed to come next week some time. I'm keeping my other order in case there's something wrong with this one. As I rarely keep my cars longer than a few months, the new lights and body style aren't a huge deal to me. Now I have to figure out the financing portion--I usually just rely on dealerships to do all that but guess not with Tesla.
New spin on phrase, “daily driver”
 
Anything @EndlessPlaid ? This is about as close to interesting as I’ve seen. Although there’s not much to get out of it.

Good hope they redesign the entire exterior so it doesn’t look like a 5 year old drew it up.
 
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I'm betting it will. At most I'd say 60-70% of sales actually go through. Realistically probably more like 40-45%. So yeah it should get cut back, but it will still be several years booked. What I'm wishing for is to hear what annual capacity they will install for the short term in CT. 400,000 to 500,000 is my guess, and then 1 million+ longer term.
FWIW I threw in my REFUNDABLE what, $100? So that let's me "play" - however I don't know that I locked anything into place. If I landed an order for $10k less than newer ones, I'd likely buy and flip.
More likely than not, I'll see the pricing when it really comes out, and get my $100 back.
I'm sure I'm far from alone.
I was probably 90% sure when I ordered the S, and about 80% sure when I ordered the Y (I'm now 100% on each, though there's a chance I'll flip the Y if my wife really doesn't like it)
I think there's a really low probability of me getting the CT. But in all seriousness, depending upon delays, etc. I may sell my S in 3 years if the CT is ready for me, and I choose to get it in place of the S. Otherwise, I'll likely cancel.
 
So for my morning muse - I seem to be noticing some "activity" on the other S delivery threads. I don't really check the others much, but I imagine Y has to be seeing a flurry of activity.
It seems to me Fremont has increased production. And then we have Texas coming online seemingly "imminently" - like 10 days from now from one report.
I also saw folks mentioning texts for trade ins, etc.
We know (or I at least believe) they changed a few months ago, from your assigned SA to the SA of the hour.
I think that's smart.
I think also there are a LOT of workers (SAs) working out of their homes.
It makes sense to me that Tesla would need to staff up big time, and let's maybe redfine what an SA is - I thought it was a Tesla salesman and point of contact.
I think the new SA definition is more like someone who answers the calls, and also initiates or completes the process of the purchase.
For example, I have been texted from the shared tesla number about my trade in, insurance, and I think financing, in addition to setting my appointment date.
that could have been done by automation (in fact, I think it would need to be for large scales) but for now, once you've placed the order, they just need folks to answer some questions and finish the process.
and if they scale up production more, they'll need to streamline more, and i guess hire more folks to make this happen.
that means more techs at the SC to finalize the car.
MAYBE some more sales folks, for newbies who want to test drive.
and then that's it - no more forward facing - instead all computers and telephones.
even delivery is i think contactless, other than perhaps getting the final payments done.
so, TLDR; more automation to complete the sales process, maybe some more folks to answer the delivery questions, and maybe more techs at the service centers to ready the cars for delivery.
 
The CT report, or delay, is the first time I can recall seeing Tesla respond to competition. We keep saying in here, wait until the legacy manufacturers gear up, it will drive Tesla to do better.

Well, here we are. If the report is correct, the delay is competitive feature driven as well as production capacity driven. So in a way we’re seeing a different Tesla.
 
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The CT report, or delay, is the first time I can recall seeing Tesla respond to competition. We keep saying in here, wait until the legacy manufacturers gear up, it will drive Tesla to do better.

Well, here we are. If the report is correct, the delay is competitive feature driven as well as production capacity driven. So in a way we’re seeing a different Tesla.
Yeah, Tesla is set to copy the Hummer with it's CrabWalk and 4-wheel steering (GMC also added to Sliverado). Ford and GMC/Chevy with its home integration for backup, and hopefully they copy Ford on the interior usability and features. All of them on power frunk. Ford on the outlets/exterior power export abilities, and hopefully its truly offroad capable with not your typical Tesla suspension components, etc. Trucks won't do well if they have the same sparse interiors - the Tesla "fanboys" right will buy it, but not the millions of others that buy trucks every year which makes up the main addressable market.
 
The CT report, or delay, is the first time I can recall seeing Tesla respond to competition. We keep saying in here, wait until the legacy manufacturers gear up, it will drive Tesla to do better.

Well, here we are. If the report is correct, the delay is competitive feature driven as well as production capacity driven. So in a way we’re seeing a different Tesla.
I mean Tesla has responded many times over the years to competition. It's a good guess that the very existence/timeline of the Plaid was in response to the Porsche Taycan. And all of those updates to the old MS power and performance were too. Nothing's changed here IMO.
This is Tesla taking notes, and making the end product (which would blown everyone out of the water already), even better.
And although I do believe Reuters on the fact that it has been delayed, I think it wise to wait for Tesla's official announcement to draw conclusions, because it could just as easily be a supply chain issue, and during that delay, Tesla is also taking time to implement new features that make it even better.🙂😄
 
Yeah, Tesla is set to copy the Hummer with it's CrabWalk and 4-wheel steering (GMC also added to Sliverado). Ford and GMC/Chevy with its home integration for backup, and hopefully they copy Ford on the interior usability and features. All of them on power frunk. Ford on the outlets/exterior power export abilities, and hopefully its truly offroad capable with not your typical Tesla suspension components, etc. Trucks won't do well if they have the same sparse interiors - the Tesla "fanboys" right will buy it, but not the millions of others that buy trucks every year which makes up the main addressable market.
Well, they entered the car market that was plenty crowded with various vehicles and went minimal. And presto, by end of this year , the Y likely will be the best selling vehicle. So I don’t agree with that aspect of your assessment.

However, they will not come to market with a deficit of tech and performance. They will maintain who they are and how the design vehicles, this I have no doubt.
 
Well, they entered the car market that was plenty crowded with various vehicles and went minimal. And presto, by end of this year , the Y likely will be the best selling vehicle. So I don’t agree with that aspect of your assessment.

However, they will not come to market with a deficit of tech and performance. They will maintain who they are and how the design vehicles, this I have no doubt.
Exactly! Tesla has never conformed to what the industry thinks is "normal". They wouldn't be in business now, or making 30%+ margins if they did bow down to tradition. They likely never will, and this is where innovation thrives.
The CT is the vehicle embodiment of that fact IMHO.
 
Questions for the brain trust on the much-hoped-for matrix headlights and tail refresh…..

Do we have any authoritative confirmation that the Taiwan pics showing the headlights, tail refresh and CCS port mean that MS production for all markets will have this? Could any or all of those changes be a regional release? ETA for US?
I think it will be a global, so US included, change. Obviously the CCS port won't be here, but it is coming here from what I've heard. Plus, it's important to consider that these new lights are likely more efficient, in their energy usage and their ease of manufacturing. The old taillights are from 2012, with almost zero changes. So it makes no sense for Tesla to only use those cost savings for a certain region. Additionally Tesla is the master of manufacturing efficiency, and it again makes no sense to have two different taillight designs on the same car for different regions.
As far as timeline goes, I would expect March. @B-lon said that he heard the Fremont lines have finished retooling as of yesterday.🙂
 
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