Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[Rikster]

Ever since I took delivery of my MSLR on 3/2/22, I've been stuck on a pretty old Software version (pre-ARNR implementation). When I had some work done on my car, I asked the service center people if they could force an update, but that said my car was "Islanded" by Tesla and I'd have to wait.

I saw others on this forum saying that they had been able to trigger an update by changing the Update method to "Standard" for a day, and then changing back to "Advanced." This seems to trigger Tesla to push an update. I tried it, and it did work for me (about a day after I switched back to "Advanced"). It might just be a coincidence, but for those stuck with an old software version that came with their new car, it might be worth a shot.

Version 2022.8.2 is downloading now, and I'm interested to see if the ARNC does anything for my car.

 

[DermMD]

Think you’ll be fine. The handful of times I’ve had cars partially repainted have all matched existing pretty well. Im just surprised at the turnaround time. Pretty fast. The good thing about the hood is there isn’t much else surrounding it.

That is impressive turnaround for a body shop. I know the OP did say body shop next door but I believe Tesla now has the capability to do certain body work including paint.

 

[TheMacc]

A few pages late, but a lot of delivery times being frankly ridiculous just doesn't make sense.

Yes, supply chain issues are a thing. Yes, they do batch deliveries for paint, wheels, region, EoQ, all of that. However, that does not account for someone with an RN114x (who hasn't rejected a VIN) still waiting while someone who is/was an RN1166 got their car. If it was just relatively close numbers it can easily be other things. There are enough people waiting with a wide range of RNs that it really just doesn't make sense. Me as a previous RN1157 should more or less never receive a car before, let's say, an RN1154. Variance is normal, but these huge differences truly make no sense.

Related, I have 2k miles on my car already and absolutely love it. I did not expect it to be this much better than my M3P that I loved. More comfortable, way more quiet, and the range is honestly the biggest difference for me and my stupid commute. Worth the wait but we all know that already!

 

[EndlessPlaid]

I am an @EndlessPlaid fan and you are batting near 1.000 in my book...

With that being said how do you figure the S and X lines have reached near full production? I am not up on the X production as much as the S production but all I know is the S production seems to be churning really slow. I believe new nonplaid orders are going to take 9 plus months to fill on average.

Can you deduce the production output and state whether or not that is near full capacity?

Would be nice if someone did a quick analysis on this and had a chart or graph of the supposed ramp up.

Absolutely I can! In fact not 3 days ago I was doing the exact calculation myself to determine the average rate they're at now.
Here's what we know so far about Model S production:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506907404050608128

So the math here is quite basic: 7879 cars divided by roughly 11 weeks in the quarter so far. This yeilds an average rate of 718 cars/week.
Model S production maxes at out current at about 1000/week, so as far as ramping goes, they are roughly 72% to their goal. So it's going pretty well. Now this is now the best metric as there was the obvious shutdown, but it's the best we have atm until Q2 numbers some out.
Hope this was informative!

 

[HKA321]

This is not true. We debunked that when they had reservations of older (lower) and new (higher) prices. Yet were filling both.

Well. If you as "we" debunked it. May I ask by using what information or fact . Yes, Tesla is filling orders but you will get your vehicle quicker with the Plaid or loaded accessories, not basic or standard equipped. I understand some of you are but hurt about the fact that Tesla not being fair because you guys are hard-core fan, same way around for Tesla hater too. But at the end of the day, the truth does hurt a little.

Why not go to their website and punch in two order for the same model but with different features and see if you're getting the same EDD. My point exactly

 

[HKA321]

This is so interesting. I’m 1166 and I pick up Monday morning. MSLR. I can’t believe you’ve had to wait so long.

Mine is 1151, what's your MSLR configuration if you don't mind I'm asking

 

[Mwolfe]

Of course it has. It will be worse for a bit, as they are ramping up again. Expect it to be worse until they reach scale again sometime after EOQ.

I would say this is hit or miss. My car was made the week of the changes. Gate date 2/25/22. At first this concerned me after reading about the quality control issues. I was told that my car needed nothing when it arrived in Mi at the delivery center. It looked great, had all covers fobs ext. I have hand washed it twice and nothing stood out to me. I did not measure gaps or do a 1,000 point check. So maybe if I looked harder I might find something. You would think these cars have the quality of a ‘90’s KIA by reading the forum.

 

[ExpatPR]

I finally feel like I belong on this thread. After feeling unseen and ignored by the scheduling monkeys my EDD finally got pushed out as expected. After my generic July EDD was changed to May 28 - June 25 now it moved to a longer window, July 14 - September 8. I guess I'll be getting refreshed 4.0 so definitely new hinges and AI controlled matrix lights?

 

[PhilipRs]

99.9999% likelihood that it has the new lights. I think you're all good!

+0.0001

 

[Ohmster]

I joined a few Tesla related FB groups just to get another view on perceptions of quality, deliveries, pricing, etc.

Uncontrolled and utter madness. The stuff people post as fact. More like bad B-movie fiction. It would be funny if it wasn’t so wrong.

It feels safe coming back to TMC.

 

[Js9911]

A few pages late, but a lot of delivery times being frankly ridiculous just doesn't make sense.

Yes, supply chain issues are a thing. Yes, they do batch deliveries for paint, wheels, region, EoQ, all of that. However, that does not account for someone with an RN114x (who hasn't rejected a VIN) still waiting while someone who is/was an RN1166 got their car. If it was just relatively close numbers it can easily be other things. There are enough people waiting with a wide range of RNs that it really just doesn't make sense. Me as a previous RN1157 should more or less never receive a car before, let's say, an RN1154. Variance is normal, but these huge differences truly make no sense.

Related, I have 2k miles on my car already and absolutely love it. I did not expect it to be this much better than my M3P that I loved. More comfortable, way more quiet, and the range is honestly the biggest difference for me and my stupid commute. Worth the wait but we all know that already!

I’m going from a M3P to MSLR. Mind sharing some more thoughts about why you feel it’s so much better? Or does what you note pretty much cover it?

I’ve been reluctant to make the change (having ordered both at the same time, the M3P came in three weeks whereas I’m still waiting 6 mo for the MS). My hand is being forced as my car slaughtered a deer and, in so doing, is now driveable but busted to the point where it will be a several month fix. Assuming the MS comes in April as projected, my choice is rendered moot as I’ll just give the M3P to the shop and then sell it.

 

[mswlogo]

Ever since I took delivery of my MSLR on 3/2/22, I've been stuck on a pretty old Software version (pre-ARNR implementation). When I had some work done on my car, I asked the service center people if they could force an update, but that said my car was "Islanded" by Tesla and I'd have to wait.

I saw others on this forum saying that they had been able to trigger an update by changing the Update method to "Standard" for a day, and then changing back to "Advanced." This seems to trigger Tesla to push an update. I tried it, and it did work for me (about a day after I switched back to "Advanced"). It might just be a coincidence, but for those stuck with an old software version that came with their new car, it might be worth a shot.

Version 2022.8.2 is downloading now, and I'm interested to see if the ARNC does anything for my car.

I don’t keep track of names and never sure if I’m reading repeats It seems a few Refresh 1.0 cars are now getting on mainland (i.e. not stuck on the island). I only recall one Refresh 2.0 that was on mainland on day of delivery. My guess is that was perhaps forced to deal with some issue before delivery. We should create spread sheet

I wonder if Teslafi can detect any patterns and create some predictions.

I tried the standard / advanced flip back and forth and no luck yet. Tried service appt through App and I got the same boiler plate.

 

[uthatcher]

I joined a few Tesla related FB groups just to get another view on perceptions of quality, deliveries, pricing, etc.

Uncontrolled and utter madness. The stuff people post as fact. More like bad B-movie fiction. It would be funny if it wasn’t so wrong.

It feels safe coming back to TMC.

Yes, this. The FB are mostly just insane.

 

[Bull]

Absolutely I can! In fact not 3 days ago I was doing the exact calculation myself to determine the average rate they're at now.
Here's what we know so far about Model S production:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506907404050608128

So the math here is quite basic: 7879 cars divided by roughly 11 weeks in the quarter so far. This yeilds an average rate of 718 cars/week.
Model S production maxes at out current at about 1000/week, so as far as ramping goes, they are roughly 72% to their goal. So it's going pretty well. Now this is now the best metric as there was the obvious shutdown, but it's the best we have atm until Q2 numbers some out.
Hope this was informative!

This seems a bit at odds with the VIN number progression. We are at approx 50,000 from the first refresh MS to current. Why so many missing VINs if that production is accurate? Not disputing your numbers, just interested on the disparity.

Also, I've been trying to find out how many Plaids have been built (or at least the ratio of Plaid/LR) but not gotten any sensible answers yet. Any ideas?

 

[EightYears]

Absolutely I can! In fact not 3 days ago I was doing the exact calculation myself to determine the average rate they're at now.
Here's what we know so far about Model S production:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506907404050608128

So the math here is quite basic: 7879 cars divided by roughly 11 weeks in the quarter so far. This yeilds an average rate of 718 cars/week.
Model S production maxes at out current at about 1000/week, so as far as ramping goes, they are roughly 72% to their goal. So it's going pretty well. Now this is now the best metric as there was the obvious shutdown, but it's the best we have atm until Q2 numbers some out.
Hope this was informative!

What is it 60/40 plaids? So Elon is going to supply the world with Model S LR with 4000 per quarter? No wonder it takes years to get a car

 

[Derek_wagner12]

I finally feel like I belong on this thread. After feeling unseen and ignored by the scheduling monkeys my EDD finally got pushed out as expected. After my generic July EDD was changed to May 28 - June 25 now it moved to a longer window, July 14 - September 8. I guess I'll be getting refreshed 4.0 so definitely new hinges and AI controlled matrix lights?

I’m right there with you! My EDD has been 6/15 - 7/13 ever since the day I ordered it on 2/6. This morning it pushed out to 7/18 - 9/12. I don’t know if I can wait that long, I’m so impatient lol

 

[Bull]

Well. If you as "we" debunked it. May I ask by using what information or fact . Yes, Tesla is filling orders but you will get your vehicle quicker with the Plaid or loaded accessories, not basic or standard equipped. I understand some of you are but hurt about the fact that Tesla not being fair because you guys are hard-core fan, same way around for Tesla hater too. But at the end of the day, the truth does hurt a little.

Why not go to their website and punch in two order for the same model but with different features and see if you're getting the same EDD. My point exactly

That test would only be relevant if all variations are being made in equal quantities. Generally the build with the larger production quantity (and relevant to its demand) should have earlier EDD.

 

[Bull]

I’m right there with you! My EDD has been 6/15 - 7/13 ever since the day I ordered it on 2/6. This morning it pushed out to 7/18 - 9/12. I don’t know if I can wait that long, I’m so impatient lol

Those EDD pushouts are often followed by a VIN and much sooner EDD. Don't give up.

 

[Harrison C]

1158 RN. 10/11 order date. MSLR No FSD. In the bay area. Got the call yesterday for the 4.5k discount on a refresh 1.0 which I turned down. Today EDD moved forward to 3/28-4/15. Looks like everyone is close to getting theirs!

 

[jebinc]

I’ve been in global manufacturing for over 3 decades (Six Sigma Blackbelt). Aspects of the S line that have not been changed will not suddenly develop new cpk values. This not a true ramp up so much as a restart with revisions to specific stations, work centers, or cells (yes, I hypothesized more than just the lights changed in Refresh 2.0). Would have a serious chat with the MEs and IEs if quality across the board was impacted after restart.

Similar background and years of experience as @Ohmster, here. Same conclusion.