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Model S Energy usage empty fully loaded car

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Does it know how cold it is at your destination? or just how cold it is in your heated garage at home when you started the trip?
Does it know how much snow or ice is on the road? or how strong the wind is blowing to cool the car off quicker while you are trying to heat it?

Apparently not now, but it could.

This is one of the things that so many of us find frustrating about Tesla. They have great ideas, and some of them they implement extraordinarily well, but then others are implemented only partially. There really isn't any good reason the range estimation can't take things like weather forecast (including expected road conditions), wind, etc., into account when making its calculations. All the factors that affect range are well known and well understood. All are available in real-time, via the internet. The car could be providing very accurate data, updated constantly.

I hope and expect that some day it will. It's just too bad that some day isn't today, because it could (and many would say should) be doing these things.
 
I think your comment is not quite fair and I find nothing frustrating about the prediction calculation. I use it all the time and it works great for me, but one has to understand what is happening.

Most of the extra consumption on this trip is from the extra drag of the Thule box, which the car does not know about. Drag is the biggest contributor (goes with square of wind speed) to consumption at the speed used. Also, the car does not know how much above or below the speed limit the person will drive, which is another big contributor to consumption. Both together probaly account 80% of the difference in iniyal prediction and final result.

I find the prediction calculations really well implemented. For one, within the first few kilometers, the prediction would have adjusted already from the initial 28% to somewhere around 10%, because of the Thule box and the higher speed driven. I see it all the time on my car, that he prediction is very quicjk in updating according to the driving style and/or conditions.
 
I think your comment is not quite fair and I find nothing frustrating about the prediction calculation. I use it all the time and it works great for me, but one has to understand what is happening.

Most of the extra consumption on this trip is from the extra drag of the Thule box, which the car does not know about. Drag is the biggest contributor (goes with square of wind speed) to consumption at the speed used. Also, the car does not know how much above or below the speed limit the person will drive, which is another big contributor to consumption. Both together probaly account 80% of the difference in iniyal prediction and final result.

I find the prediction calculations really well implemented. For one, within the first few kilometers, the prediction would have adjusted already from the initial 28% to somewhere around 10%, because of the Thule box and the higher speed driven. I see it all the time on my car, that he prediction is very quicjk in updating according to the driving style and/or conditions.

If your comment is directed at me, my comment wasn't about the trip estimation being lacking as it related specifically to your situation. I was addressing the comments I quoted, which mentioned weather factors that the system, as of now, does not take into account, but could. Things like wind speed and direction en route and temperature en route can be pretty significant factors, and there's no reason the software can't take them into account. This isn't my idea, by any stretch of the imagination. Others have suggested it. I just agree with it, and hope Tesla incorporates these things into the Trip Planner sooner rather than later.
 
The car doesn't know it has a roof box... lots of wind resistance there.

This is a trivial problem to solve, feedback correction table. These are used everywhere in pedestrian cars...

This is not rocket surgery, it's straightforward engineering. As are multiple stops on the nav. A team of a few people should be cranking out these kinds of features left and right.

In retrospect the whole "range assurance" announcement was taking quite a few liberties with the truth.
 
This is a trivial problem to solve, feedback correction table. These are used everywhere in pedestrian cars...

This is not rocket surgery, it's straightforward engineering. As are multiple stops on the nav. A team of a few people should be cranking out these kinds of features left and right.

In retrospect the whole "range assurance" announcement was taking quite a few liberties with the truth.
Rocket surgery (sic) is hard.